Why Football Fans in Twitter Wish that Cristiano Ronaldo Wins FIFA Ballon d’Or 2012

We present another analysis about the power of football players as icons, and some learnings about social media dynamics, by exploring Twitter content analysis.

As explained in the previous post, FIFA representatives will announce this next Monday 7 January 2012 who is the Football Player of the Year, awarded with the FIFA Ballon d’Or, which is the result of the merger of the two most prestigious individual football awards: FIFA Football Player of the Year and Ballon d’Or by France Football.

There are three finalists from a previous shortlist of 23 football players. They are: Leo Messi (FC Barcelona, Spanish League), Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, Spanish League) and Andrés Iniesta (FC Barcelona, Spanish League).

We have shown in the previous post that based in media value analysis, Argentinian Leo Messi playing in FC Barcelona is the favorite to win the award. Betting odds by leading online betting firms show also a clear favoritism for Leo Messi (79.5% assigned probabilities, for 11.5% for Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) and 9% for Iniesta (FC Barcelona)).

Now we explore in this post which is the feeling in the social media about who will be the winner. As in other previous studies, we have chosen Twitter sentiment analysis, as Twitter is an open social espace, in contrast with other social media platforms.

We have monitored tweets published between 23 December 2012 and 5 January 2013. We have included results for tweets published in English, Spanish, French, Italian and Portuguese.

We have identified the tweets where a clear preference was shown for one of the three finalists. The statement may reflect a winning conviction, a desire or a petition.

We present first the results day by day. They appear in the following figure.

Our empirical analysis shows that Cristiano Ronaldo has been the preferred option, with  a large advantage, within the period between 26 December and 2 January. Before and after this period, Leo Messi got the highest share of tweets concerning the FIFA Golden Ball. Andrés Iniesta appears consistently as the third option, with a share of tweets between 5%-15%, except a peak of 25% by 3 January 2013.

fifa ballon d'or 2013 favorite odds by twitter fans cristiano messi iniesta

Which is the aggregate result? Who is the player that gets more ‘popular votes’ in Twitter during the whole period covered in our analysis? We present in the following figure the evolution of the aggregate values of tweets received by each finalist, between 23 December and 5 January.

The results show that during the first couple of days Leo Messi was the preferred choice in the social media. But the trend changed abruptly since 26 December 2012. Cristiano Ronaldo becomes the first option, increasing its share to a maximum of 70% of all published Tweets by 2 January 2013. Since 3 January Leo Messi is gaining momentum again.

fifa ballon d'or 2012 favorite odds by twitter social media fans cristiano messi iniesta 7 january zurich

.

Our results say that taking into account all tweets published between 23 December and 5 January, the fans’ preferences in Twitter come as follows:

1. Cristiano Ronaldo: 61.9%

2. Leo Messi: 27.1%

3. Andrés Iniesta: 11%

A clear question emerge: why do we have a huge divergence between perception in the social media and perception by betting professionals and other analysis?

Presence and engagement with followers do influence Twitter social media conversation

There may be many answers to why people in Twitter prefer Cristiano Ronaldo winning the Ballon d’Or even if apparently objective chances are not with him.

A first answer could come from the base of fans of each football star. Cristiano Ronaldo has played both in the Spanish League with Real Madrid and in the English Premiership with Manchester United (and also with the Portuguese Sporting Clube de Portugal when he was a young promising star). This broad set of followers is important, as English Premiership is dominant in Asia and Oceania, By contrast, Leo Messi has always played with FC Barcelona, since he was 13 years old. Cristiano could also have more fans than Messi among women due to his physical attractiveness.

Even if this reason seems appealing, it does not solve the problem satisfactorily. Our analysis shown in the previous post shows that Leo Messi is by far the global media reference of the season 2011/12. If he is present globally in the news more than Cristiano Ronaldo, this is because his sport performance is considered superior, but it also reflects that readers (and thus fans) want to know about this performance, that journalists are likewise ‘obliged’ to publish.

Besides, we count with tools to measure, at least indirectly, the number of fans that each football star attracts, thanks again to social media. Followers in the social media are a good proxy for actual number of fans.

Looking at Facebook figures we have (data by 5 January 2013):

1. Cristiano Ronaldo: 52.6 million followers.

2. Leo Messi: 49.9 million followers.

3. Andrés Iniesta: 11.7 million followers.

We find thus that both Cristiano and Messi count with almost the same power in Facebook.

The difference comes when we look at results in Twitter.

1. Cristiano Ronaldo 15.2 million followers

2. Andrés Iniesta: 5.1 million followers

3. Leo Messi: there is no official account.

And here comes the inception of the answer that we privilege: Leo Messi is not present in Twitter for some reason, and he is paying the price in terms of lower visibility than other stars similar to him. In the same time, Facebook numbers are telling us that both megastars count with a similar number of followers worldwide.

Our first finding is presence: if a brand, corporate or personal, is in Twitter, social media conversation around the brand will probably increase. If you are a powerful and admired brand, being exposed in the social media with an official active Twitter account will probably benefit you and increase your brand power.

For instance, 16.4% of tweets chosing Andrés Iniesta as favorite for the award were addressed directly to his Twitter account @andresiniesta8, in a suggested interaction from the followers to the star.

This ‘imagined dialogue’ does not exist with Leo Messi, as Messi’s fans know that he will never read the messages as he is not present in Twitter.

Like with Andrés Iniesta, many followers of the Portuguese star write a tweet as if they were talking or sending a personal message to Cristiano Ronaldo, using his account @Cristiano.

The relevant point in the case we present today is that Cristiano Ronaldo and/or his social media team have fostered this ‘dialogue’ these last days by interacting directly with followers in Twitter. This will be the second finding: engagement.

They have chosen a very smart way to maintain a dialogue with the star and increase the traffic of tweets in the days previous to the announcement of FIFA Ballon d’Or winner.

Here is the dymanics chosen by @Cristiano team to increase substantially engagement with followers.

1. Find an objective reason to interact with followers. The issue chosen was to celebrate reaching the 15 million followers mark. Instead of presenting a proposal, they asked for ideas, linked around the hashtag #celebrate15M. This was 18 December 2012.

.

2. Show with RT some of the proposals sent by fans.

.

3. He announces by Christmas the way to celebrate the mark: with the fans

.

4. Every day, a question for the fans. 15 fortunate fans will appear in @Cristiano TL, and will be voted with RT by all Cristiano Ronaldo fans as the best tweet of the day. All this mechanism means a lot of messages directly addressed to @Cristiano, and a lot of RT to the selected tweets. This means a substantial increase of traffic in Twitter around Cristiano Ronaldo. These are the 5 questions posed by Cristiano:

***

.

5. The celebration with fans was opened by 27 December ended by 1st January.

Now, if we look back again the first graph, we can find that the challenges proposed by Cristiano Ronaldo match with the sudden increase of mentions of followers hoping that Cristiano become the winner of Ballon d’Or. Challenges posed in 30 and 31 December got as an easy answer for followers ‘we want you winning the Ballon d’Or next 7 January’. This answer was picked only by exception among the selected 15 answers in his TL, but flooded Twitter during these days, as we have found out.

All in all, this case shows us that powerful brands count with creative means to interact with followers in the social media, in a way highly appreciated by them. Benefits for the fans, benefits for the brand.

In our case, interaction launched by @Cristiano has as a result that people in Twitter see that a vast majority of Twitter users prefer Cristiano Ronaldo winning the FIFA Ballon d’Or.

****

Other analysis in this site about FIFA Ballon d’Or

 

FIFA Ballon d’Or. Predictions and Media Impact Analysis

Zurich, 7 January 2013, FIFA Headquarters. The best football player of the season 2011/12 will be announced and will be awarded with the FIFA Ballon d’Or 2012.

The 23 football players short list was reduced to three finalists on 29 November 2012: Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, Spanish Liga), Andrés Iniesta (FC Barcelona, Spanish League) and Leo Messi (FC Barcelona, Spanish League). (FIFA official web site)

UPDATE 7 January 2013. Leo Messi wins his fourth Ballon d’Or. Additional info at the end of this post.

Leo Messi, the favourite candidate, based in media value analysis

In a previous post in this site, by June 2012, we predicted that Leo Messi was the main favourite to win the award. Our prediction was established based in the strong relationship between our estimations of media value during the season and the award winning player.

We publish a report every season since 2006 presenting the list of top football players in the world based in global media impact (printed news coverage). This is the top 10 list of season 2011/12.

As we explained in that post, being named the most powerful football player in the world in terms of media impact is not just a matter of pride and satisfaction for Leo Messi, for his club FC Barcelona and for Argentina. As news are like votes for sport talent and performance, becoming the number one during a whole season is an indirect way to say thay journalists all over the world consider that Leo Messi is the best player in the world right now.

In coherence with this hypothesis, we find that in the last four seasons, the football player identified by MRI Universidad de Navarra as the most valuable player eventualy was awarded later as the Ballon d’Or (now FIFA Ballon d’Or), the most prestigious individual award in football. If this is true this next season, our prediction is that Leo Messi will win his fourth Ballon d’Or in January 2013.

Leo Messi, the favourite candidate, based in betting odds

Since June 2012,  when we published this analysis, Leo Messi has performed an incredible start of the season, establishing new world records concerning goals scored during a natural year. His 91 goals set the new reference. Previous top marks were established by Gerd Müller (Bayern Munich and German team, 1972; 85 goals) and Pelé (Santos FC and Brazil team, 1958: 66 goals). This extraordinary performance has strongly increased his favoritism to win his fourth Ballon d’Or.

For instance, online betting sites are predicting as implicit winning chances:

  • Leo Messi: 79.5%
  • Cristiano Ronaldo: 11.5%
  • Andrés Iniesta: 9%

This is the average of implicit odds taken by WilliamHill and Bwin (retrieved by 3 January 2013.

.

Leo Messi, the favourite candidate, based in surveys in Spanish newspapers

The designation of the winner if the FIFA Ballon d’Or is almost becoming a ‘question d’Etat’ in Spain, as all three finalists play in the Spanish League; it affects archrival clubs Real Madrid and Barcelona; it includes an Spaniard, Andrés Iniesta, who is also the current champion in the UEFA Europe Championship, and it opposed the two  megastars of the current generation of football players Cristiano Ronaldo and Leo Messi, both counting already with the Ballon d’Or trophy.

Some months ago the battle appeared somehow more open than now, as opposed to the brilliant individual performance of Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo had also excellent individual number plus a relevant team success as Spanish Liga winner. During the last months there has been an intense ‘campaign’ in the media both in Madrid in Barcelona showing the merits of local player.

As Leo Messi has accumulated astonoshing personal sporting perfomance these last months, the intensity of the campaign has decreased, but of course, many journalists in Madrid and elsewere consider that Cristiano Ronaldo deserves to win his second Ballon d’Or.

In order to tackle the sentiments by football followers both in Madrid and Barcelona, we have monitored some open online polls launched by newspapers asking readers about who will win or deserve to win the FIFA Ballon d’Or. It is evident that as the newspapers are open to all, Real Madrid followers can vote in newspaperd from Barcelona and the other way round. But in average, there will be more pro Real Madrid readers and voters in newspapers in Madrid, and pro FC Barcelona readers in newspapers in Barcelona. Results should show the typical home club bias, but we can learn about current sentiment by merging all results.

We present first result concerning polls in newspapers in Madrid. It corresponds to sport newspapers Marca, AS and Punto Pelota program. Total votes:344.228. We present simple non weighted averages.

In Madrid. Who will win the ballon d’Or?

1. Leo Messi: 53.4%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 26.4%

3. Andrés Iniesta: 20.5%

Results from newspapers in Barcelona (La Vanguardia and sport newspapers Sport, Mundo Deportivo). Total votes: 31.076.

In Barcelona. Who will win the Ballon d’Or:

1. Leo Messi: 69.7%

2. Andrés Iniesta: 17.5%

3. Cristiano Ronaldo: 12.5%

Average results Barcelona & Madrid (unweighted)

1. Leo Messi: 61.5%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 19.4%

3. Andrés Iniesta: 19%

The results show that Leo Messi is clearly perceived as the favorite to win his fourth Ballon d’Or, both by readers in Madrid and Barcelona. He has a wide favorable gap against the other contenders.

All our prediction measures annunce Leo Messi as winner. If any one else becomes the winner, this will be a big surprise.

Media Impact of FIFA Ballon d’Or: 2011 Results

FIFA Ballon d’Or is the result of the merger of the prestigious Ballon d’Or award, organized by the football magazine France Football, and the FIFA Player of the Year award.

There are many other fooball awards, but FIFA Ballon d’Or is the leading reference in prestige and impact.

We have shown in all our football media value reports that global media value is the key factor determining the commercial power of the football players as brands. There is a direct relationship between our measures of media value and income (salaries and sponsorship deals). There is also a direct relationship beetwen footballer media value and transfert market value.

Winning the FIFA Ballon d’Or is the consecration of the career of any top football player. It means prestige and worldwinde recognition. But it also means a huge direct media impact driven by the winning announcement. This sudden sharp increase of media coverage means then also a direct impact in increasing the media value of the player and the commercial value as a brand.

We present here some references already published in the past concerning the measurement of the media impact produced by the FIFA Ballon d’Or award. It refers to 2011 edition. The award was won by Leo Messi. You can access here to the report (complete report pdf, in Spanish; summary in English)

There are also other awards given at FIFA gala: best coach, best female player, best goal…

First figure shows that the award to best male football player captures the media attention. Our data say that if we take as value 100 total number of news references to FIFA awards, Leo Messi takes 46 points. Inter Milan coach (now at Real Madrid) José Mourinho just takes 16 points. Best female football player, Marta, just gets 1.1 points of media attention.

media impact fifa ballon d'or prizes messi mourhinho marta prizes

.

The media power of FIFA Ballon d’Or. A way to show its impact is to compare the media impact of these awards again other awards.

FIFA Ballon d’Or Vs Laureus

We compare first againts the ‘Laureus Word Sport Awards’. They were established in 1999. It includes all sport disciplines.  There are no football players awarded as ‘Sportman of the year’: 7 from tennis, 2 golf, athletics and Formula One. Spanish tennis player Rafael Nadal won 2011 Laureus award.

Our results show that there is no point of comparison concerning the media impact of both events: media impact of FIFA Ballon d’Or award is more than 70 times higher than Laureus prize.

media coverage impact of fifa ballon d'or 2011 vs laureus 2013

.

FIFA Ballon d’Or Vs Nobel Prize

Now we compare the media impact of FIFA Ballon d’Or against the most prestigious prizes: the Nobel prize.

The results are with no doubt striking. We have both global media impact and media impact in the big five football countries in Europe (Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy and France).

First column is the media coverage taken by the FIFA Ballon d’Or. If we consider global media coverage, the Peace Nobel prize assigned to Chinese dissident Xiabo received almost three times more news worldwide. Litterature Nobel Prize receives a similar degree of media attention, while scientific Nobel prizes attract less media coverage than the football award.

If we consider just media coverage within the five mentioned countries in Europe, we find that Ballon d’Or award beats all single Nobel prizes in terms of media coverage.

media impact of fifa ballon d'or vs nobel prize 2011

Our empirical data shows how powerful are well established awards. As explained before, in the sport business industry, media impact is not only a matter of pride and prestige: it conveys direct economic returns for the winner.

UPDATE 1 7 January 2013, 6pm CET

In an awful mistake, the prestigious sportnewspaper has published during some minutes in its digital versión the news announcing Leo Messi as Ballon d’Or 2012 winner… 2 hours before the official announcement during the gala ceremony.

This is the photo capture.

Leo Messi Winner Ballon d'or 2013 pic capture lequipe 7 january

****

Annex

UPDATE 7 January 2013

Leo Messi wins FIFA Ballon d’Or 2012.

The distribution of votes is as follows: (source FIFA.com, pdf)

1. Leo Messi: 41.6%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 23.7%

3. Andrés Iniesta: 10.9%

4. Xavi Hernandez (FCB): 4.1%

5. Falcao (Atletico de Madrid): 3.7%

6. Casillas: (RM): 3.2%

If we restrict the percentage of votes jut to the three finalists, the distribution of votes is:

1. Leo Messi: 54.6%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 31.1%

3. Andrés Iniesta: 14.3%

The substantial advantage of votes received by Messi is in line with all the stats we have presented in this post.

The votes of the previous edition were:

Ballon d’Or 2011

1. Messi: 47.9%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo 21.6%

3. Xavi 9.2%

Final voting come from votes by national coaches, national team captains and sport journalists, each group weighting 1/3.

Here are the preferences shown by each group:

Coaches

1. Messi: 44.4%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 23.1%

3. Iniesta: 8%

Captains:

1. Messi: 39.8%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 21.7%

3. Iniesta: 10%

Journalists:

1. Messi: 40.7%

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 26.3%

3. Iniesta: 14.8%

There is a certain controversy about the voting system. Some consider that it is unfair that countries with a solid football tradition and sport success have the same power in the final votation than other small countries or countries with almost no football tradition. One country, one vote, up tp 208 countries (here, the official FIFA individual voting list, pdf).

We have reestimated the final results if only countries with a powerful football history had voting rights. We have included in this sample the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Italy, Germany, Mexico, The Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Spain and Uruguay. We have included in an extended sample also Cameroon and Nigeria.

We present below the ranking based in the short list of countries, and the global official result in brakets.

Results using short list of countries:

1. Leo Messi: 36.2% (41.6%)

2. Cristiano Ronaldo: 24.8% (23.7%)

3. Andrés Iniesta: 10.1% (10.9%)

4. Falcao: 4.6% (3.6%)

5. Xavi: 4.1% (4.1%)

6. Pirlo: 3.8% (2.8%)

7. Casillas: 3.0% (3.2%)

The conclusion is that top 3 list stay the same, but the gap between Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo is substantially shortened. Votes from less powerfull football countries has benefited Leo Messi. We find a change of place in the fourth position, as the short list of countries prefer Falcao instead of Xavi.

****

Other analysis in this site about FIFA Ballon d’Or

FIFA Ballon d’Or 2012 Three Finalists: What Twitter in Spanish Predicts

Today FIFA is announcing in Sao Paulo the three finalists candidates for nomination as best football player in the world, next 7 January 2013 in Zurich.

We have analyzed what people are saying about the three finalists in tweets published in Spanish.

According to the analysis, the favourites to be in the last three candidates short list are:

1. Leo Messi (FC Barcelona): 33.9% mentions

2.  Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid): 21.6%

3. Radamel Falcao (Atlético de Madrid): 16.5%

4. Andrés Iniesta (FC Barcelona): 16.1%

5. Iker Casillas (Real Madrid): 6.9%

6. Xavi Hernández (FC Barcelona): 2.9%

7. Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid): 1%

7. Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Inter/PSG): 0.4%

***

Actual 3 finalists:

Leo Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Andrés Iniesta

Ronaldo, Iniesta and Messi are the three nominees for the FIFA Ballon d’Or 2012 (FIFA Web Site, 29 November 2012)

.

As for coaches, the finalists are

Vicente del Bosque (Esp)

Pep Guardiola (FC Barcelona)

José Mourinho (Real Madrid

****

Who win become the FIFA Ballon d’Or 2012 Winner?

Last four seasons, the football player most valuable in terms of global media impact (MRI Universidad de Navarra estimates), evtentually became the Ballon d’Or. See in this post in our blog who is expected to be announced as winner this next 7 January 2013 in Zurich, based on media value prediction:

Football Media Value Report 2012

****

Other analysis in this site about FIFA Ballon d’Or

Red Bull Stratos as Shock Co-Branding

We all love Red Bull brand now

Like many other million people in the world, I followed live the magic moments before and after the record stratospheric jump by Felix Baumgartner within the Red Bull Stratos project. I wanted to feel the experience and its storytelling personally as I planned to analyze this branding case, like many other professionals and professors interested in branding and reputation.

I have read several quick reaction analyses published within the first couple of days after the event (this is in fact also a quick reaction comment-analysis). There is unanimity among marketing and branding experts praising Red Bull strategy.

Many analyses reach almost the level of euphoria. I was amused to see that some analysts talk about a NEW ERA opened by Red Bull project. Some blog readers may know that I have a rather contrarian mind. But no, this time I will not say that I dislike Red Bull branding strategy and results. I praise it, without proposing caveats. Bravo. Great job!

In fact, I participated in the social media conversation showing my admiration to Red Bull marketing team.

Shock Co-Branding

All the same, my perception is that Red Bull has not created something new. This is just marketing, more precisely through sponsorship means. They selected an excellent partner in order to create a powerful storytelling, the event reached the desired visibility, it created very nice branding results, and all this was perfectly activated by Red Bull marketing guys’ team. Red Bull just mastered all the pieces of this very special branding project.

There is really nothing new in this story for people, professionals and experts dealing with sponsorship as a corporate branding strategy.

Nevertheless, there is truly something that makes this story special and worth to be analyzed and proposed as example to take lessons from: the size and impact of the event. It was monstrous, and there are many published metrics showing the vast media and social media impact.

In this sense, Red Bull Stratos project shared a lot of commonalities with genuine sport mega-events, like the Olympics or FIFA World Cup. In terms of branding and marketing, the difference is that Baumgartner’s show and global media attention was concentrated in just few hours, against three weeks for the other mega events.

While strongly concentrated in time, it was a mega-event by its global reach and intensity in terms of media impact.

This allows us to consider Red Bull Stratus as a shock co-branding event.

Shock co-branding is a concept that, as far as we know, we forged here at MRI Universidad de Navarra by 2009. This was a report by professor Francesc Pujol (myself) about media impact of Beijing Olympics 2008 and its implications in terms of city and country branding.

Francesc Pujol (2009) ‘Shock Co-Branding: When Olympics Meet Beijing and China’, Presented at Sports Mega Events and their Legacies Conference, by International Association of Sport Economists, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 2-4 December 2009.

Thinking in sport mega-event as shock co-branding strategies allow us to approach in a simpler way the intangible benefits and legacies associated in hosting such events or, in Stratus case, to get the naming rights.

This is how we understand shock co-branding and its implications, as presented in Pujol (2009) report:

Elements of Shock Co-Branding

 

  1. Two independent brands
  2. Both brands have complete different business and markets
  3. Common, complementary and divergent brand value elements
  4. Both brands establish a common project, linked to a short  time span event
  5. The event produces and extraordinary temporary increase of media coverage of both brands.
  6. After the event, media coverage decreases to normal times
  7. Each brand separates again, working in their original business

Consequences of Shock Co-Branding

  1. Two independent brands merger during the short time event
  2. Extreme increase and time-concentrated media coverage
  3. Brand perception can be dramatically and durably affected by  the event and media treatment of it
  4. Temporary merger of brands during the event can produce a transfer of brand values from one brand to the other
  5. So, a modification of brand value and brand perception may be consequence of the time concentrated increase of media coverage and/or the acquisition of brand components of the other brand.

Our perception is that the check list gives positive results for all points concerning the alliance between Felix Baumgartner team and sponsor Red Bull within the co-brand Red Bull Stratos.

Our conclusion is that right now many of us love Red Bull brand more than three days ago, as now its brand value profile includes new attractive components channeled by Stratus storyline, while it has strengthen its own core values, as they were all of them perfectly aligned with the stratospheric jump. And yes, the improvement of Red Bull brand value will drive new and loyal energetic drink customers.

There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch

Red Bull got a perfect score.

Sure.

But this was not achieved against nothing and didn’t come in a magic, automated way.  Red Bull Stratos success story is not telling us how corporations should spend their marketing money from now on. Not that directly, for sure.

This case cannot be easily replicated, as far as is it quite unique by each one of two co-branding partners. This case provides some sponsoring insights, but it does not consist in just applying a marketing technique.

I am persuaded that we will find in the next future a lot of imitators. My guess is that many of them will fail and will waste a lot of marketing money. This goes in the same way that a successful viral campaign. You cannot produce new viral successes by just replicating all the ingredients of the magic recipe. We have a lot of examples on this.

Furthermore, Red Bull company did not run the project at zero brand costs. A crucial element of the thrilling Stratos storyline was that there were some probabilities to suffer a human casualty. If Felix Baumgartner died in his world record attempt, the current massive and unanimous praise would turn into a tremendous corporate reputation crisis. Red Bull took the risk and won. Taking risks is apparently part of Red Bull DNA brand values, but it is probably not the case for many other corporations.

Football Media Value Report 2012

(Puede ver la versión española de esta entrada en ‘Informe del valor mediático del fútbol 2012‘)

We have just realeased the Football Media Value Report 2012, Season 2011/12.

This is the 7th edition of this annual report published by Media, Reputation and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra.

You can visit our site at Economics, Sport and Intangibles unit, ESI Universidad de Navarra, where you can find information and free reports about football and media value and other sports (Olympics, Formula One, Tour de France).

Media value is estimated by the number of news received by each football player and teams during the whole season. We monitor media from countries in all continents.

According to our estimations, Argentinian star at FC Barcelona, Leo Messi, is again the football player who has received most media coverage during the season.

This is four times in a row as the leading football star in the world in terms of global media coverage. He has 28.8 points of media value. This means that Messi has appeared in news almost 29 times more than the average football players taking part in the Champions League this season.

Second most valuable player is Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) with 20.7 points. Archrivals Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, FC Barcelona Vs Real Madrid have completely dominated the media scene during the season, as third player most talked in the news is far away. This is Didier Drogba (Chelsea) , with 12.4 points. Even if Drogba and his team did not perfom well during the regular season, Drogba has played a determinant role in allowing Chelsea FC winning the most prestigious and valuable trophy, the UEFA Champions League, for the first time ever in Chelsea’s history.

According to our results, there are no powerful emerging stars this season. There is only Van Persie (Arsenal) as a newcomer in the top 10 list. All other stars have been in the top 10 list in previous seasons.

We find as young emerging talent in the top 20 only Brazilian star Neymar (Santos) and Cavani (Naples).

If we compare top 10 players in season 2011/12  with 2010/11 results, as shown in the table below, we find that top two stars are the same, that both of them have increased their media value in this season thanks to their outstanding personal performance, and that the gap between Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo has increased. Wayne Rooney (Manchester United) has lost momentun, as he moves from third to fifth position, paying like this the price of the early elimination of his team in the Champions League.

Xavi (FCB), Iniesta (FCB) and Ibrahimovic (AC Milan) protect their position inside the top 10 club. By contrast, players losing this status are David Villa (FC Barcelona, long term injury), Fernando Torres (Chelsea, poor sport perfomance) and Samuel Eto’o (Anzhi, as he choosed to move to a club with very low media exposure, but with extraordinary salary conditions). Iker Casillas (Real Madrid) also skip from top 10 list, wich is a rather normal movement, because goalkeepers almost never receive strong media attention.

Being named the most powerful football player in the world in terms of media impact is not just a matter of pride and satisfaction for Leo Messi, for his club FC Barcelona and for Argentina. As news are like votes for sport talent and performance, becoming the number one during a whole season is an indirect way to say thay journalists all over the world consider that Leo Messi is the best player in the world right now.

In coherence with this hypothesis, we find that in the last four seasons, the football player identified by MRI Universidad de Navarra as the most valuable player eventualy was awarded later as the Ballon d’Or (now FIFA Ballon d’Or), the most prestigious individual award in football. If this is true this next season, our prediction is that Leo Messi will win his fourth Ballon d’Or in January 2013.

Concerning the ranking of top teams by media value, our results say that FC Barcelona is again the top football team in the world in terms of media value. FC Barcelona has 103 points fo media value. This is four consecutive seasons as world leader. Second most valuable team is Real Madrid, with 79.5 points. They repeat both the positions taken in the previous season.

Third team most valuable this season is Chelsea FC, with 63 points. They are one of the winners of the season, even if they performed poorly in local championship. They move from 6th to 3rd place. This shows the tremendous impact of reaching the final stages of the UEFA Champions League.

We have four teams from the Italian league, which is an increase from previous years. There are three treams from the English Premiership, two from the Spanish Liga and Bayern Munich, from German Bundesliga. Of course, Bayern as Champions League finalist is another of the winners of the season, as they move from 9th to 6th place.

Media exposure is the core factor in football and other professional sports influencing brand value. The business of sport entities is selling spectacle to fans. Media coverage is an excellent proxy for the size of the spectacle a sport brand is creating. In our previoys studies, we have found a direct relationship between media value and revenues.

Consider for instance the case of FC Barcelona. Thanks to an extraordinary generation of home grown players like Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol or Valdés, plus the role of sport manager Pep Guardiola, FC Barcelona has become a title winner team and has become the world media reference these last four seasons. Within this period of time, between 2008 and 2012, in the midst of a severe economic and financial crisis in Spain and abroad, total revenues have increased from 290 million euro in june 2007 to 461 million in june 2012. This is an increase of 58%. In the same period, Manchester United, which was the world media reference in 2008 but now has moved to 5th position, has increased revenues during the same period to just 18%.

***

Update 30 October 2012: List of 23 candidates to Ballon d’Or 2013

The candidates

Keepers: Casillas, Neuer and Buffon

Defenders: Piqué and Ramos

Midfielders: Busquets, Iniesta, Xavi, Özil, Pirlo, Touré Yaya and Xabi Alonso

Forwards: Messi, Balotelli, Benzema, Agüero, Drogba, Falcao, Ibrahimovic, Neymar, Ronaldo, Rooney and Van Persie

You can gather information about each player at FIFA web site

.

Seven players aong our top 10 list by media value are included in FIFA shortlist. FIFA does not include David Villa (long term injury), Samuel Eto’o (playing now in a team with no previous international competition records) and Fernando Torres.

Online betting firms have lauched bets concerning FIFA Ballon d’Or 2013 winner. We use odds proposed by Bwin.com in order to calculate the implicit winning chances given to 23 candidates. Bwin assigns 52.7% probabilities to win to Leo Messi, 23.6% to Cristiano Ronaldo and 23.6% to any other player.

The answer: January 7, 2013.

****

Other analysis in this site about FIFA Ballon d’Or

Informe del valor mediático del fútbol 2012, temporada 2011/12. Messi, el futbolista más mediático

(See the English version of this post ‘Football Media Value Report 2012‘)

Publicamos el nuevo Informe sobre el valor mediático en el fútbol 2012, temporada 2011/12. Es el séptimo informe anual sobre el valor mediático en el fútbol, elaborado por el centro de Medios, Reputación e Intangibles de la Universidad de Navarra (ir a la web).

Puede consultar aquí la nota resumen con los resultados principales del informe (nota resumen).

El valor mediático de jugadores y clubes se mide por las apariciones en prensa en medios que monitorizamos de países de los cinco continentes.

Presentamos la lista de los 10 futbolistas más mediáticos del mundo en la temporada 2011/12.

Nuestros datos indican que el astro argentino del FC Barcelona, Leo Messi, ha sido el claro dominador mediático de la temporada. Suma 28,8 puntos de valor mediático. La segunda posición es para Cristiano Ronaldo, del Real Madrid, con 20,7 puntos. Las dos estrellas de la Liga BBVA han sido los referentes mediáticos absolutos: el tercer clasificado, que es el determinante Didier Drogba del Chelsea tiene solo 12,4 puntos de valor mediático.

El ranking de valor mediático no responde sólo a la curiosidad de los aficionados. Tiene implicaciones comerciales de primer nivel, ya que los ingresos individuales por patrocinio están directamente relacionados con el valor mediatico del futbolista.

Además, en las últimas cuatro temporadas, el futbolista más mediático estimado por MRI Universidad de Navarra se ha convertido luego en el premiado con el Balón de Oro FIFA. En la tabla mostramos el podio de valor mediático y el podio del premio Ballon d’Or de las últimas cinco temporadas.

La lista de los 1o futbolistas más mediáticos muestra que la temporada 2011/12 no ha sido propicia para la eclosión de estrellas emergentes. Entre el top 10, sólo el holandés Van Persie (Arsenal) se estrena en la élite mundial. Todos los demás han estado en alguna clasificación anterior ya entre los 10 más mediáticos.

La falta de grandes novedades se extiende también al Top 20 mundial. Las únicas caras nuevas son Neymar (Santos) y Cavani (Nápoles). Para el jugador brasileño es sin duda un logro situarse en la élite mundial sin jugar en uno de los grandes equipos de Europa. Esta temporada se beneficia de su buen rendimiento deportivo, así como la mediática final del Mundial de Clubes del FC Barcelona contra Santos (4-0). Si mantiene el rendimiento mostrado esta temporada, cuando dé el salto a una gran liga europea, se situará con toda probabilidad entre los tres más mediáticos del mundo.

Hay que reseñar también que encontramos entre los 10 primeros a dos jugadores que no han tenido una temporada brillante. Se trata de Carlos Tévez (Manchester City), que ha tenido multitud de problemas de disciplina con su club, con grandes sanciones disciplinarias y vuelta al final de la temporada al equipo, con una participación singular que ayudó a que el Manchester City ganara el título de la Premier inglesa por primera vez en décadas. El segundo caso es el de Terry (Chelsea), a pesar de que su equipo es el campeón de Europa, Terry no pudo ayudar a conseguir ese título en la final, por la tarjeta roja que recibió por una agresión sin balón a Alexis, en la semifinal contra el FC Barcelona. El impacto de esa acción, que puso en peligro la clasificación de su equipo, fue muy alto. Además, el jugador inglés se ha visto asociado durante la temporada con problemas de acusaciones de comportamiento racista. Por lo tanto, se trata de dos casos de jugadores emblemáticos en equipos que han conseguido éxitos deportivos, pero que su contribución positiva es dudosa. Tenemos ante nosotros un ejemplo que hemos observado pocas veces en nuestros estudios de deportistas con alto impacto mediático sin que se deba principalmente a éxitos deportivos y buenas noticias.

La lista de los 10 clubes más mediáticos de la temporada vuelve a estar liderada por el FC Barcelona, al igual que en las dos temporadas anteriores.

Excelentes embajadores de marca ciudad y marca país 

Existe un continuo debate sobre el papel que juega el fútbol profesional en la sociedad actual, que algunos juzgan excesivo y desmesurado. Lo que es innegable es que el fútbol es el deporte que genera un mayor impacto mediático en la prensa española y globalmente.

Esa exposición mediática es la principal fuente de generación de ingresos para los clubes, pero tiene igualmente repercusiones positivas para las ciudades que albergan equipos de fútbol en la máxima competición. En ese sentido, los clubes de fútbol actúan como embajadores al incrementar la visibilidad de sus ciudades. Villarreal, una ciudad de 48.000 habitantes, generaba una visibilidad en prensa equivalente a una ciudad de 210.000 habitantes gracias al equipo que tenía en Primera División. El descenso a segunda división penalizará tanto al club como a la visibilidad mediática de la ciudad.

Los clubes actúan igualmente como embajadores internacionales de las ciudades. Por ejemplo, el Zaragoza, que ha conseguido salvar la categoría, genera en 2012 el 12% de las imágenes ligadas a noticias sobre Zaragoza en prensa en inglés.

Contar con las dos marcas líderes del fútbol mundial, el FC Barcelona y el Real Madrid es un excelente activo no sólo para las ciudades de Barcelona y Madrid, sino también para la marca España. El análisis del contenido de noticias muestra que FC Barcelona y Real Madrid tienen un excelente grado de asociación con los componentes emocionales de marca, tales como ‘atractivo’, ‘espectacular’o ‘admirado’. Por lo tanto, el FC Barcelona y el Real Madrid refuerzan el valor de la marca España en los aspectos emocionales, que son precisamente los más valiosos para incrementar el atractivo turístico de un país y de las ciudades. Además, el componente emocional refuerza el valor de las marcas españolas ligadas a gastronomía, moda y cultura.

Más valor mediático, más ingresos

El valor mediático es el principal activo en el mundo del fútbol como negocio, ya que es un reflejo del espectáculo e interés que generan equipos y jugadores. Los estudios de MRI Universidad de Navarra muestran que el valor mediático es el mejor indicador del poder comercial de las marcas futbolísticas. Por ejemplo, los veinte futbolistas más mediáticos del mundo reciben un salario muy similar. Sin embargo, los diez más mediáticos obtienen de media 9 millones de euros en ingresos por contratos de patrocinio, mientras que los diez siguientes obtienen un promedio de 3,5 millones de euros.

Lo mismo sucede con los clubes. Cuando los equipos alcanzan el status de marcas de alcance global, los ingresos por merchandising y patrocinio se disparan. Gracias a que los dos colosos españoles se han convertido en las marcas más globales, sus ingresos han crecido sustancialmente desde 2008, a pesar del marco de crisis económica generalizada. Los ingresos del FC Barcelona han pasado de 290 millones de euros en junio de 2007 a unos ingresos esperados de 461 en junio de 2012, que es un incremento del 58%. Para el Real Madrid, los ingresos pasan de 351 a 491 millones, con un incremento del 40%. En cambio, el Manchester United, que era el referente mediático mundial en 2007, pero que ha sido destronado, ha incrementado sus ingresos en este período únicamente en un 18%.

El valor mediático es además el mejor indicador para establecer el precio de mercado de los futbolistas, ya que es el que predice con mayor exactitud el precio que se pagará por ellos en el mercado de fichajes.

Anexos.

Así cuenta la noticia el canal Youtube de Liga BBVA.

****

Other analysis in this site about FIFA Ballon d’Or


FIFA Bribery Case: Media Reputation Analysis

FIFA, the International Federation of Association Football is currently facing a major reputation crisis.

FIFA top representatives have been accused of bribery and favours in order to influence the decision on the FIFA Football World Cup bids for 2018 and 2022, finally awarded to Russia and Qatar.

The case is receiving massive media attention, as the case is formally open in the british Parliament. The impact of the events are magnified as the accusations are colluding with the Presidential elections process. Today, June 1st is the election day. There is only one candidate, Joseph Blatter, asking for reelection. A second candidate, Bin Hamman from Qatar renounce last week. There are current allegations against Bin Hamman for bribery in the bid process. Joseph Blatter was included in the FIFA internal list of investigated persons for a couple of days.

Joseph Blatter aknowledged that the current crisis is ternishing FIFA image and reputation, but that he considers that the best way to react is to solve the problems inside the “family of football”. Consequently, Blatter discards a dimission or renouncing to reelection.

Officials from Adidas and Coca-Cola, showed in a formal statement their concerns about the current situation, as they are main sponsors of FIFA World Cup.

In this post we check to which extent the current crisis is really damaging FIFA image and reputation.

Reputation profile of news about the bribery case

The first piece of the analysis is to measure the profile of news directly related to the bribrey case. As in precedent posts, we base our analysis in the “diamond reputation vectors” analysis, using news content analysis from newspapers in English.

We show the results concerning the negative reputation vectors. In order to see the impact of the case, we compare reputation profile of news by 14 may with news up to 31 May.

Results are clear: all news about the FIFA bribery case are strongly associated to “Scandal” vector and also, but to a minor extent, to “Tragedy”. The “Scandal” vector components more sensitive to the FIFA case are corruption, scandal, embarrassing, mistake and harm.

Our results show also that media coverage about the case has evolved in tome to a much more severe judgement. Mid-May coverage referred mainly to allegation by Triesman, the English FA representative that he was approached by FIFA executive members during the bidding process asking for financial compensations. Current media coverage of the case expands to allegations against top officials, and revelations about e-mail communications by FIFA vice-president implicitly aknowledging irregularities in Qatar bidding process.

We include the analysis of the reputation vector “Respected, Coherent”. As explained in other posts, this vector is sensitive to news with values and ethical issues, both in a positive and in a negative way.

We find that the FIFA bribery case is also seen as a ethics-related issue. We find increasing and high degree of association with components trust, coherent, ethical, fairness and respected.

All these results show us clearly that media is really perceiveing the bribrey case as a serious issue with substantial reputational implications for FIFA perception.

The impact of the bribery case in FIFA reputation

We have analyzed the media profile of news directly related to the bribery case. It is perceived as a highly negative event.

The next questions that we need to address is to check to which extent the news about the bribery case is actually damaging FIFA reputation. This is the crucial issue in order to fix the actual size and risk of any reputation crisis. We have conducted similar analysis in this post in order to test how singular events affect global firm reputation, in cases like AFLAC jokes about Japaneses tsunami, the impact of Royal Wedding parody video on T-Mobile or the impact of UEFA sanctions to Mourinho on Real Madrid image.

The first step required to measure the impact of the bribrey case on FIFA media reputation is to show FIFA media reputation in “normal times”. We count with this information, as we monitored the impact of the FIFA 2010 World Cup in South Africa in terms of media coverage and media reputation. Results about media reputation for country brand Spain or players’ reputation and impact on sponsorship like David Villa case are presented in our Report about Media Impact and Reputation of FIFA World Cup 2010 (in Spanish).

Brand Spain (p 3 to 39); Brand David Villa (p. 68 to 105); Brand FIFA and Sponsors (p. 106 to 121)

We show in the next figures the degree of association of brand “FIFA” to negative image vectors, during 2010. We show two measures: first one refers to media treatment during the first half of year 2010; the secong one shows values for July-December 2010. First half year measures reflect more the intrinsic media reputation of FIFA, while secong half of the year measures reflect the impact of the football competition.

The degree of association of FIFA to vectors “Scandal” and “Tragedy” are relatively mild, and are absically unaffected by the football competition. There is no specific vector component highly associated strongly to FIFA.

FIFA business model is largely based in the selling of TV rights but also because it attracts multimillion sponsoring deals. Sponsoring firms look for partners ensuring massive media coverage linked to events distilling positive media reputation and no negative media reputation. We have shown that in normal times FIFA is not linked to negative reputation values. We show below that our results confirm that FIFA is an excellent sponsoring partner, as it is highly associated to positive image vectors. We select a couple of them as example: “Spectacular” and “Impressive”.

Our results show that in normal times (pre World Cup media coverage) FIFA is quite positively related to vectors “Spectacular” and “Impressive”. And this positive relationship dramatically increases as a result of the sport competition (post WC measures), where the massive media coverage is concentrated. So, FIFA is a perfect companion for sponsoring brands presenting an emotional-oriented brand profile.

With all these results, we can already show the impact of the current reputation crisis in the overall reputation quality of the brand “FIFA.

We show first how the association of FIFA to “Scandal” and “Tragedy” has been affected at the initial stage of the bribery scandal media explosion with Triesman allegations, a couple of weeks ago.

Our findings show a substantial increase of negative media perception. Concerning “Scandal”, the vector components more sensitive have been scandal, mistake, harm and corruption. Those from vector “Tragedy” are harm, tragedy and failure.

We show now the current situation, with news about FIFA up to May 31, one day before the expected reelection of President and candidate Joseph Blatter for a fourth term.

We compare present media reputation values to those two weeks ago, and against 2010 values.

We find an additional massive increse of association to negative reputation values, compared to both 2010 and mid May situation. Association to “Scandal” increases in all vector components, and it is more pronounced with components scandalous, embarrassing, worrying, mistake and harm.

Association to “Tragedy” also increases, but to a minor path. It increases more on horrible, worst and harm.

We add the results concerning the vector “Coherent, Respected”. As explained befeore, if it increases, it means that the news are also considering ethical issues.

Results show a notable increase of association to components trust, ethical, fairness, respected.

Our conclusion is direct: the impact of the bribery case has a devastaging reputational impact on the quality of brand FIFA. Please remember that in last figures we are not showing just news related to the bribery case, but we show instead ALL news about FIFA.

Present crisis harms FIFA by increasing its association to “Scandal” and “Tragedy”, but also because it  reduces dramatically the association with positive reputation vectors. We show below the example of the vector “Impressive”. Results are self speaking.

Is Sepp Blatter The Solution, or The Problem?

Yesterday Sepp Blatter was reelected as President of FIFA, serving in his fourth term. He got some 90% of the votes of FIFA representatives.

Blatter assumes the mission to solve the problems FIFA is facing: ” ‘Together we can tackle the problems that football faces today and show that our game remains very solid and strong’. The FIFA President spoke about the need for transparency and “zero tolerance” in the fight against the dangers that threaten football” (FIFA Press Release, June 1 2011).

Right now, Sepp Blatter image and credibility in the media is directly linked by the media by the ongoing bribery case.

We have shown in this post that the news about the bribery case have completely contaminated all FIFA news, and both present the same profile in terms of negative media reputation.

With this results, it is not surprising to find using our technique that actual news about Sepp Blatter show a tarnished image, similar to FIFA profile, and FIFA bribery news profile.

In the following figures we shoe how the current crisis has completely modified the media perception about Sepp Blatter. We show the reputation profile of news about Sepp Blatter by September 2010, in the aftermath of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, and we compare it with his profile by the end of may, just before his reelection.

As in the precedent cases, we find a dramatical increase of the association to “Scandal” and “Tragedy” right now on news about Blatter. His media reputation in “normal times” was not linked to these reputation vectors a year ago.

Joseph Blatter profile is now also strongly linked to “Respected, Coherent” vector, as the current crisis is linked to ethics.

We show finally the example of how the crisis does affect positive reputation vectors. We have choosen “Excellence”. Sepp Blatter loses the association to this reputation vector that he has one year ago.

How serious and damaging is the present association of Sepp Blatter to “Scandal”?

Media Profile: Sepp Blatter Vs Bernie Madoff

Thanks to our technique and to our database we can provide elements of answer that we consider relevant and useful. We can compare his media profile to the media profile of other past cases of scandals. The readers and analysis can judge if the personages can be compared or not, but what we provide is the results concerning how media portray the different cases and people.

The case we propose is Bernie Madoff media reputation to be compared to Sepp Blatter.

 

Madoff’s case is probably an epitome of a investiment fraud and financial scandal. We check how media is covering right now news about Sepp Blatter in comparison with news about Bernie Madoff.

We show Madoff’s media reputation profile on news by mid 2010 and at the beginning of 2011.

Critical reputation vector in this crisis is “Scandal”. Our results show that both Blatter and Madoff are strongly associated to scandal. Madoff is more associated to components scandalous and worrying. But news about Blatter are even more related to “Scandal” than Madoff in components like corruption, harm, mistake and embarrassing. The results show probably impact the institutional implications of the bribery case.

Concerning “Tragedy”, both people share a very similar profile. Blatter negative reputation is stronger concerning harm and tragedy.

The vector “Coherent, Respected” linked to ethical issues show also that Madoff and Blatter share a similar media profile. Madoff profile is somehow instable between 2010 and 2011. Blatter profile is stronger associated to trust, ethical and fairness.

All our empirical evidence tend to the same conclusions: the bribery case linked to the 2018 and 2022 bidding process is an extraordinarily serious reputation crisis, at least as how international media is covering it. This crisis is not isolated to people directly affected by the corruption allegations, but it has completely flooded the reputation of FIFA as institution, and its President Joseph Blatter.

This is really problematic, as there are risks that the brands FIFA and Sepp Blatte remain contaminated by the scandal and their media reputation is permanently associated to “Scandal” (as brand Madoff is). This scenario would certainly mean a withdrawal of present FIFA main sponsors, as all of them are leading brands where brand equity is essentila to their business (Adidas, Coca-Cola, Visa, Fly Emirates). Of course, sponsorship income would not disappear, as FIFA football competitions produce extraordinary media impact attractive to firms. But probably new sponsoring firms would be low quality brands looking for media exposure more than a co-branding alliance, like is currently happening with cycling competitions.

Crisis management recommentations are clear: reputation problems will remain as far as only compromise disciplinary measures are taken. Exemplary sanctions and the assumption of political responsibilities are needed. These are the initial steps to allow media to speak about other things than corruption when covering FIFA news.

These measures will not be enough probably in order to move present FIFA media reputation no normal pre-crisis waters. Only a structural reform-reborn of FIFA will ensure that media considers FIFA under new perspectives.

Right now, FIFA and Sepp Blatter share exactly the same negative media reputation. If radical reforms are undertaken by FIFA, we will see in the near future if President Blatter is part of the problem or the solution: in the next months we will monitor and compare media reputation of both FIFA and its President. Techniques developped by MRI Universidad de Navarra will tell us in which direction this reputation crisis is evolving.

Other posts

Mourinho Reputation. The Impact of UEFA Disciplinary Case in Real Madrid Image

The Reputational Curse of Political Sex Scandals: The Impact of Schwarzenegger and Strauss-Kahn Scandals on Bill Clinton (and Monica Lewinsky) Reputation

Strauss-Kahn Arrest (2). Impact on IMF Reputation. Comparison with World Bank, United Nations and Other International Organizations

AFLAC Media Reputation: Impact of Jokes About Tsunami in Japan

Risky Business: When T-Mobile Dances with the Royal Wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton

Companies Reputation and Wikileaks: Bank of America Case

Mourinho Reputation. The Impact of UEFA Disciplinary Case in Real Madrid Image

Bin Laden Killing News Storyline 1. Pakistan Media Coverage versus International Media (Ex USA)