Media, Reputation, Intangibles, Brands, Crisis. Based in media and social media impact and content analysis. By Francesc Pujol. A Blog of Media, Reputation and Intangibles center MRI Universidad de Navarra
Publicamos el nuevo Informe sobre el valor mediático en el fútbol 2012, temporada 2011/12. Es el séptimo informe anual sobre el valor mediático en el fútbol, elaborado por el centro de Medios, Reputación e Intangibles de la Universidad de Navarra (ir a la web).
Puede consultar aquí la nota resumen con los resultados principales del informe (nota resumen).
El valor mediático de jugadores y clubes se mide por las apariciones en prensa en medios que monitorizamos de países de los cinco continentes.
Presentamos la lista de los 10 futbolistas más mediáticos del mundo en la temporada 2011/12.
Nuestros datos indican que el astro argentino del FC Barcelona, Leo Messi, ha sido el claro dominador mediático de la temporada. Suma 28,8 puntos de valor mediático. La segunda posición es para Cristiano Ronaldo, del Real Madrid, con 20,7 puntos. Las dos estrellas de la Liga BBVA han sido los referentes mediáticos absolutos: el tercer clasificado, que es el determinante Didier Drogba del Chelsea tiene solo 12,4 puntos de valor mediático.
El ranking de valor mediático no responde sólo a la curiosidad de los aficionados. Tiene implicaciones comerciales de primer nivel, ya que los ingresos individuales por patrocinio están directamente relacionados con el valor mediatico del futbolista.
Además, en las últimas cuatro temporadas, el futbolista más mediático estimado por MRI Universidad de Navarra se ha convertido luego en el premiado con el Balón de Oro FIFA. En la tabla mostramos el podio de valor mediático y el podio del premio Ballon d’Or de las últimas cinco temporadas.
La lista de los 1o futbolistas más mediáticos muestra que la temporada 2011/12 no ha sido propicia para la eclosión de estrellas emergentes. Entre el top 10, sólo el holandés Van Persie (Arsenal) se estrena en la élite mundial. Todos los demás han estado en alguna clasificación anterior ya entre los 10 más mediáticos.
La falta de grandes novedades se extiende también al Top 20 mundial. Las únicas caras nuevas son Neymar (Santos) y Cavani (Nápoles). Para el jugador brasileño es sin duda un logro situarse en la élite mundial sin jugar en uno de los grandes equipos de Europa. Esta temporada se beneficia de su buen rendimiento deportivo, así como la mediática final del Mundial de Clubes del FC Barcelona contra Santos (4-0). Si mantiene el rendimiento mostrado esta temporada, cuando dé el salto a una gran liga europea, se situará con toda probabilidad entre los tres más mediáticos del mundo.
Hay que reseñar también que encontramos entre los 10 primeros a dos jugadores que no han tenido una temporada brillante. Se trata de Carlos Tévez (Manchester City), que ha tenido multitud de problemas de disciplina con su club, con grandes sanciones disciplinarias y vuelta al final de la temporada al equipo, con una participación singular que ayudó a que el Manchester City ganara el título de la Premier inglesa por primera vez en décadas. El segundo caso es el de Terry (Chelsea), a pesar de que su equipo es el campeón de Europa, Terry no pudo ayudar a conseguir ese título en la final, por la tarjeta roja que recibió por una agresión sin balón a Alexis, en la semifinal contra el FC Barcelona. El impacto de esa acción, que puso en peligro la clasificación de su equipo, fue muy alto. Además, el jugador inglés se ha visto asociado durante la temporada con problemas de acusaciones de comportamiento racista. Por lo tanto, se trata de dos casos de jugadores emblemáticos en equipos que han conseguido éxitos deportivos, pero que su contribución positiva es dudosa. Tenemos ante nosotros un ejemplo que hemos observado pocas veces en nuestros estudios de deportistas con alto impacto mediático sin que se deba principalmente a éxitos deportivos y buenas noticias.
La lista de los 10 clubes más mediáticos de la temporada vuelve a estar liderada por el FC Barcelona, al igual que en las dos temporadas anteriores.
Excelentes embajadores de marca ciudad y marca país
Existe un continuo debate sobre el papel que juega el fútbol profesional en la sociedad actual, que algunos juzgan excesivo y desmesurado. Lo que es innegable es que el fútbol es el deporte que genera un mayor impacto mediático en la prensa española y globalmente.
Esa exposición mediática es la principal fuente de generación de ingresos para los clubes, pero tiene igualmente repercusiones positivas para las ciudades que albergan equipos de fútbol en la máxima competición. En ese sentido, los clubes de fútbol actúan como embajadores al incrementar la visibilidad de sus ciudades. Villarreal, una ciudad de 48.000 habitantes, generaba una visibilidad en prensa equivalente a una ciudad de 210.000 habitantes gracias al equipo que tenía en Primera División. El descenso a segunda división penalizará tanto al club como a la visibilidad mediática de la ciudad.
Los clubes actúan igualmente como embajadores internacionales de las ciudades. Por ejemplo, el Zaragoza, que ha conseguido salvar la categoría, genera en 2012 el 12% de las imágenes ligadas a noticias sobre Zaragoza en prensa en inglés.
Contar con las dos marcas líderes del fútbol mundial, el FC Barcelona y el Real Madrid es un excelente activo no sólo para las ciudades de Barcelona y Madrid, sino también para la marca España. El análisis del contenido de noticias muestra que FC Barcelona y Real Madrid tienen un excelente grado de asociación con los componentes emocionales de marca, tales como ‘atractivo’, ‘espectacular’o ‘admirado’. Por lo tanto, el FC Barcelona y el Real Madrid refuerzan el valor de la marca España en los aspectos emocionales, que son precisamente los más valiosos para incrementar el atractivo turístico de un país y de las ciudades. Además, el componente emocional refuerza el valor de las marcas españolas ligadas a gastronomía, moda y cultura.
Más valor mediático, más ingresos
El valor mediático es el principal activo en el mundo del fútbol como negocio, ya que es un reflejo del espectáculo e interés que generan equipos y jugadores. Los estudios de MRI Universidad de Navarra muestran que el valor mediático es el mejor indicador del poder comercial de las marcas futbolísticas. Por ejemplo, los veinte futbolistas más mediáticos del mundo reciben un salario muy similar. Sin embargo, los diez más mediáticos obtienen de media 9 millones de euros en ingresos por contratos de patrocinio, mientras que los diez siguientes obtienen un promedio de 3,5 millones de euros.
Lo mismo sucede con los clubes. Cuando los equipos alcanzan el status de marcas de alcance global, los ingresos por merchandising y patrocinio se disparan. Gracias a que los dos colosos españoles se han convertido en las marcas más globales, sus ingresos han crecido sustancialmente desde 2008, a pesar del marco de crisis económica generalizada. Los ingresos del FC Barcelona han pasado de 290 millones de euros en junio de 2007 a unos ingresos esperados de 461 en junio de 2012, que es un incremento del 58%. Para el Real Madrid, los ingresos pasan de 351 a 491 millones, con un incremento del 40%. En cambio, el Manchester United, que era el referente mediático mundial en 2007, pero que ha sido destronado, ha incrementado sus ingresos en este período únicamente en un 18%.
El valor mediático es además el mejor indicador para establecer el precio de mercado de los futbolistas, ya que es el que predice con mayor exactitud el precio que se pagará por ellos en el mercado de fichajes.
Anexos.
Así cuenta la noticia el canal Youtube de Liga BBVA.
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Other analysis in this site about FIFA Ballon d’Or
May 19, 2012, the grand final of 2012 UEFA Champions League at Munich Allianz Arena, with local team Bayern Munich Vs Chelsea FC.
We show now media impact analysis before the final. We will include media coverage analysis after the final, in an update of this post.
Second part of this post is an analysis of the commercial implications of this final for Bayern and Chelsea, due to the strong relationship in professional football between media coverage and brand value.
Structure of this post:
Part 1. Expected stars of the final. Media Coverage analysis
Part 2. Champions league Economic Impact: media coverage, media and brand value, commercial power.
Part 3. And the winner is Chelsea FC. Photo Gallery
Appendix 1: Football tactics analysis, by Zonal Marking
Appendix 2. The big game for sponsors
Appendix 3. Twitter Impact Analysis, by ExactTarget
UEFA Champions League Final As a Crisis Event
This is the big event in football (soccer) of the year at clubs level. This is a defining moment for teams and players taking part of a game that caputers worldwide attention among football fans.
The winning title game in top sports is a crucial moment in sportive life for all people and institutions involved. In terms of business analysis, the outcome of the game has tremendous impact for the winning side. Brand equity of winners received a huge positive shock, that has normally lasting effects, especially for those with higher responsibilities and achievements in contributing to the final victory. In some particular cases, there is a before and after the final in the biography of players and teams.
This is why we analyze this king of sport events as a crisis in the story of players and clubs. We proposed in this blog this analysis of crucial games as a crisis context in our study about the impact in social media (Twitter) of the semifinals of this UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich and FC Barcelona Vs Chelsea (you can see the cases by clicking the link).
Now we propose an analysis of the grand final. We want to present you results about some intangible issues: Who are the stars of this final? Who are the players that take the glory of the final?
As always in this post, we sustain our analysis in metrics. This time we use media coverage analysis in newspapers. We have used this technique profusely in this post. Media impact analysis in sports is the core approach and contribution proposed by our sport research team, Economics, Sport and Intangibles, ESI Universidad de Navarra.
The expected stars of the final. Chelsea FC and Bayern Munich Players. Media Impact Analysis
We come directly to the results. We show in the following figures the stars that media are expecting to appear in the grand final, in each team. This is measures by media coverage given to each player in news directly related to the the final Chelsea Vs Bayern Munich. It refers to monitoring of news from newspapers worldwide, covering more than 5,000 newspapers). First results refer to media appearance during the last month, since both teams qualified to the final by eliminating FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Results of media impact are calculated as the share of all news about all team members that each single football players receive.
We start first with results concerning Chelsea FC players.
We find that the football star from FC Chelsea most talked about during the last month in relation with the final vs Bayern Munich is veteran John Terry. He captures 13.5% of all news. Even if Terry is a defender, he is a big star in the team, as he is ahome grown player and a team leader. The embarrassing result is that he will not play the final for sure, as he is suspended. He received a red card (explused from the pitch) after an unfair aggression against FC Barcelona rival Alexis. This misbehaviour, which was not even ‘needed’ for protecting Chelsea FC sport interests, as it did not correpond to a complicated defensive action. This action put in danger the qualifying options of his team. London club did eventually resist FC Barcelona ferocious attacks and eventually succeed in qualifyin to the final. Some called it the biggest sport miracle in Chelsea FC story.
So, we find that the main expected star in the Chelsea FC side is someone that will not even play the game. This result is again a clear reflect of the ‘crisis profile’ of big events: they create a tremendous media impact, for the good or for the bad.
Puting aside the case of the suspended bad boy terry, we find that first international media reference in Chelsea FC team is Didier Drogba. He receives 12.6% of all mentions. Almost tie in second place comes Fernando Torres, El Niño – The Kid, with a 12.1% share. Both strikers are the team references, as third place is at a huge distance in terms of emdia attention. This is david Cahill, with 8% share. He has received substantial media coverage due to the incertitude about his presence in the final due to injury problems. His participation is urgently needed, as Chelsea FC suffers from the absence of other defenders suspended. Chelsea FC has another three players suspended due to the accumulation of yellow cards (admonition with no direct expulsation from the game, except if you collect two yellow cards within a game). Suspended Ivanovic takes fifth place. This was a especially personal painful case: he received a yellow card implying suspension for the final game during semifinal against FC Barcelona. He was apparently unaware of his situation until he learned the consequences live in a post-game interview. Suspended Ramires and Meireles (red bars) receive also relevant media attention.
Turning now our attention to Bayern Munich stars to shine in the final, according to media impact analysis, we find that team reference is striker Mario Gómez. He receives 13.6% of all mentions to Bayern players. His degree os media attraction is almost exactly the same than the one reached by terry in the other side. The obvious difference is that the German player will play the game. He is the main hope for Bayern and the main source of concern for Chelsea coach and supporters. He has scored 12 goals in the current UEFA Champions League season. This is an all time record, if we exclude the mark obtained also this season by FC Barcelona mega star Lionel Messi, with 14 goals. Gómez can approach or equalize the record by the Argentinian star.
Second and third place go to Robben (12.3% share) and Frank Rybéri (11.9%). Both are team references and are crucial players in the football elaboration of Bayern Munich. It is well known that both have had some ego problems and disputes. Now the advantage is for Robben, but the differences are so thin that the impact of the final will fix their position in the team. We find in fourth position goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, with 10% of all news mentions. It is unusual to find goalkeepers sharing news protagonism with top midfielders and forwards. Neuer has earned his status of star to watch for the final as he played a decisive role in the semifinals Vs Real Madrid. Qualification was decided in the penalty round, as the game finished draw 2-1 (aggregate 3-3) after prolongation. He was able to block the shots by mega stars Cristiano Ronaldo and Kaka.
Other relevant players for the final, according to media attention, are Schwensteiger (7,4%), Müller (7.0%), Boateng (5.6%) and Lahm (5.4%). Some of these players had a more relevant role at the beginning of the sseason, but injuries and average sport perfomance make that they are currently not expected as the key players in the final.
The Champions League final of the suspended players
There are as much as seven players that cannot play the final matrch due to suspension because of red card (John terry) or accumulation of yellow cards. This is probably a record number in the history of the UEFA Champions League finals.
These sport sanctions may affect the winning chances of each team, as if obliges the team sport managers to design new team strategies as some suspended players are regular team players.
We have seen that apparently the team suffering the most delicate absence is Chelsea FC, with the suspension of defender John Terry. This so important media attention may also be due to the fact that sanction is due to a red card action.
Summing up the weight of all players suspended in each team, we find that media consider that this loss is much more relevant for Chelsea FC camp. Suspended players generate 27% of all news abut the team, while Byaern Munich suspended players account only for 10% of all mentions.
Winning chances and media impact analysis
Both Chelsea and Bayern Munich beated in the semifinals the archfavorites for the final, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Now in the final, which team is the favorite one to win the 2012 UEFA Champions League?
Bayern Munich counts with a very relevant circumstatial advantage: he benefits of playing the final at home. Normally finals are played in a neutral city. This time we have this benefit for Bayern Munich as a matter of chance, as Bayern Munich bid and was selected for hosting the final three years ago.
According to the leading football online betting firm, Bwin, Bayern Munich has almost exactly 65% of chances of winning the title. Remaining 35% go to Chelsea FC.
We show now which is the power of each team in terms of media coverage received globally by team members, in news related with the final, during the last four weeks. We find that Chelsea FC is leading the talk. Chelsea players receive 54% of all news and mentions about the final, against a 46% value for players from Bayern Munich.
Previous figure refers to global media impact of all players in the team roster of each team. This means that it include also news about suspended players. Even if they contribute to the overall media impact of the team, they will no contribute directly to win the title as they are banned for playing the final. We adjust the data in the following figure by including only news about players that can play the final match. In this case, we find that global media coverage is almost perfectly tied, with a sligh advantadge for Bayern Munich 51-49.
Media attention to team sport managers
Football players are the protagonists of the sport spectacle, and they receive all media attention. But technical leaders of the group are essential and may have a critical influence in the final outcome of the game. We have monitored media attention given to team sport managers. We have estimated the number of news as the share they represent to news received by all football players in theit team.
The tactical battle opposes Ruud Heynckes in Bayern Munich versus Roberto Di Matteo in Chelsea FC. Heynckes is a veteran coach with long experience and many sport sucessess as trainer. Di Matteo is a young trainer, he is in an interim position as coach, in replacement of former trainer Villas-Boas.
Very surprisingly to us, our empirical data tell us that during these four last weeks, media reference is by far Di Matteo. he receives an amount of news equivalent to 17.6% of all news received by all players in Chelsea team. Ruud Heynckes receives only 8.4%.
Views by Media in United Kingdom
Previous results were all about global media impact. In this section we show the results as they are perceived by media in United Kingdom. We will present how things about the final are presented in Britain in terms of quantitative media coverage. We will use global results as terms of comparison.
We find in the first figure that media in United Kingdom increase attention to the controversy and problems caused by red card received by John Terry. Media share in Britain increases to 20.9%, compared to global value of 13.5%. Cahill injury evolution receives more media attention in Britain than in general.
As for media coverage in Britain of rival players, we find that media in Britain is focused (obsessed?) by score killer Mario Gómez. Lahm and Schweingeister receive more attention than average.
Of course, local stars receive much more media attention by Bristh media than rival players from Bayern Munich. 71% of all news in United Kingdom about players in the final refer to Chelsea FC team players (excluding suspended players in both teams). Global rate was 49%.
Views by Media in Germany
Now we show the same analysis concerning media treatment given to Chelsea and Bayern Munich by newspapers in Germany.
We find that German newspapers do not pay any attention to Fernando Torreas, compared to global and British coverage. All media is focused in Drogba’s role in the final. He receives 17.5% of all news, compared to the global average of 12.6%.
As for media coverage of local team stars, we find, quite surprisingly, that mario Gómez deserves less media attention in Germany than abroad. (his shares drops from 13.6% to 11.8%. This benefits to Arjen Robben, who is currently the leading media reference in German newspapers, with a 15.4% share. German players (except Gómez) tend to receive a slighly higger media attention in Germany.
Finally, moving to the analysis of the media attention in Germany given to players from both participating teams, we have as expected the reverse result than found for British media. Now German newspapers reserve 65% of all news mentions to Bayern Munich players.
Champions League Final 2011: FC Barcelona Vs Manchester United, Messi Vs Rooney
We performed last year a similar analysis at ESI Universidad de Navarra concerning the media impact analysis of UEFA Champions League Final 2011 at Wembley, FC Barcelona Vs Manchester United.
We run a before the game analysis, similar to 2012 analysis. Last year we focussed our analysis in how media was giving coverage to leading mega star in each team: Wayne Rooney in Manchester United, Lionel Messi in FC Barcelona.
We scrutinized how media attention to these two rival stars was shared by media from different countries. This gave us a measure of the geographic brand power of top global brands in football.
You can find more information about this analysis in our Economics, Sport and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra section. Below you have the figures concerning the courntries more oriented to Manchester United (Figure 1) vs the countries more oriented to FC Barcelona (Figure 2).
Figure 1
Figure 2
PART 2. CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ECONOMIC IMPACT: MEDIA COVERAGE, MEDIA AND BRAND VALUE, COMMERCIAL POWER
There is much at stake in this final game of the UEFA Champions League, as always. This title is one of the biggest annual sport events.
Two teams and a lot of football stars quest for sport glory. Winning team reaches a new status of prestige and sport excellence.
There are also a lot of commercial and economic conequences linked to this 90 (120) minutes game. The most evident are the direct ones, like the monetary prize that UEFA gives to the winner and the finalist. There are also additional revenues from broadcasting rights, controlled also by UEFA. Players will receive bonusses from team and sponsors depending on the result.
UEFA Champions League final, as a major sport event with global TV and media coverage, is also a definitive branding event. It create new brands, and it reinforce the brand equity of those already existing. Winners become stars, and players with a crucial role in the final become heroes.
New heroes are inmmensely attractive for firms as a branding strategy through sposnorship deals. New heroes create a new legion of followers from every corner of the world, ready to buy their team jerseys or other products, and avid to watch in the future their sport performance evolution.
We will present in this section the extraordinary role that the UEFA Champions League plays in creating global brands, and its direct translation into increased commercial power.
All results in this section come from our reports (freely available) produced by our research center Economics, Sport and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra.
Stage 1: UEFA Champions League has a huge impact in team media value
We measure at ESI Universidad de Navarra what we call media value of football players and football teams since 2006. Media value is estimated by total media coverage in newspapers received by players and teams during a whole season, both in national and international newspapers. Media value is the core factor explaining revenue creation in professional sport.
We have shown that UEFA Champions League plays a major role in total media value received by players and teams. The impact becomes massive when team reach the semifinal stage of the competition. See for instance the results concerning season 2006/07
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2006/07, June 2007, ESI Universidad de Navarra, p. 22 (see here)
We have shown in our analysis that seasonal media value is made almost entirely of sport performance. We have found out this strong connection in sports we have studied like Formula One, Cycling, Tennis and Football.
In the next figure, we represent the media value of top football teams by June 2007, and we have estimated an econometric model of which would be the fair level of media value based exclusively in sport performance. You can find close values between actual and estimated values. It is interesting to notice that sport performance measures included past 10 season results. Main factors are present season results. but there is also a legacy effect: past sport performance influence present media value. Among past performance factors the leading one were results reached in Champions League, while past domestic success were almost no relevant.
Source: Report Media Value and Football,Mid Season 2006/07, February 2007, ESI Universidad de Navarra, Chapter 5, pp. 21-28. (see here)
Stage 2. Relationship between media value and revenues
As media value is a global reflect of sport performance, it is also a reflect of the spectacle produced by each player and a team during a whole season. This is why we should expect a strong relationship between media value and income. We have designed several studies to analyse the relationship between media value and revenues at individual and club level, and we find always a strong positive relationship between both variables.
Next figure presents the revenues obtained by top players in terms of media value (data 2007). We divide them between top 10 and following top 11-20 football players. All top 20 players are top football global stars. We find that they receive more or lest the same income in salaries. But differences in revenues explode when we look at revenues coming from personal marketing and publicity contracts. Top 10 players receive in average some 9 million euros per year, while following stars in the list (11 to 20) receive ‘just’ 3.5 million euros per year. Reaching top positions in the media value race has huge consequences in commercial power of football mega stars.
Players
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2006/07, June 2007, ESI Universidad de Navarra, p. 26 (see here)
We find a similar result when we turn to the analysis of the relationship between media value and revenues at football clubs level. There is a strong direct relationship both concerning TV rights and total revenues obtained by top football teams.
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2009/10, June 2010, ESI Universidad de Navarra,Chapter 5, pp. 36-48 (see here, text in Spanish)
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2009/10, June 2010, ESI Universidad de Navarra,Chapter 5, pp. 36-48 (see here, text in Spanish)
Stage 3. Top football players by media value, June 2011
Who are the current football mega stars by media value?
According to our last estimation, bu June 2011, the ranking is completely dominated by Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona). Second most valuable player is Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid). There were no football players from Bayern Munich or Chelsea FC among world top 10.
First place will be disputed again with all probability between Messi and CR7. But we expect to find more than one player from Champions final in the new list of season 2011/12, to be published by June 2012.
Stage 4. Top football teams by media value, June 2011
Finally, we present the current list (Juen 2011) of top football teams by media value.
Most valuable team is FC Barcelona, followed by Real Madrid. Chelsea FC appears 6th in the table. Bayern Munich take 9th possition. It it probable that winning team will finish between 3-5 position in the global ranking of season 2011/12.
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PART 3: AND THE WINNER IS CHELSEA FC
Chelsea FC is the new UEFA Champions League 2012 winner. Drogba scored the definitive penalty, after Schwensteiger missed his shot. Didier Drogba was also the scorer in the regular time, saving Chelsea with his equalization in minute 86, near the end of the game. Müller gave an advance to Bayern Munich in minute 83.
This combination will probably make Didier Drogba become the media reference to global media coverage of the game. We will monitor it to identify the role given to all players and coaches by the media attention given to them.
Schwensteiger desperate after missing his penalty shot.
Photo gallery of the Champions League Final 2012 Bayern Munich Vs Chelsea FC
Lampard and Schwensteiger (BM)
Didier Drogba (CFC) in defensive tasks
David Luiz defending position against Mario Gómez (BM)
Bosingwa Vs Ribéry (BM)
Mario Gómez (BM) and Gary Cahill
Müller (BM) scores against Cech, minute 83: Bayern – Chelsea 1-0
Manuel Neuer, unable to avoid goal by Didier Drogba (1-1), minute 86.
Robben missing his penalty shot in prolongations (1-1), minute 96.
Appendix 1: Football tactics analysis, by Zonal Marking
You can check here the great and always interesting pre-game tactics analysis provided by zonalmarking.net.
(…) Perhaps there’s a wider context here. Real Madrid beat Barcelona to La Liga, with transition-based play overcoming tiki-taka. Dortmund’s victory over Bayern was something similar, as was Atletico’s win over Athletic in the Europa League final. Such results are hardly indicative of a seismic shift, but a win for Chelsea would be yet another victory for reactive football.
According to Zonalmarking, a defensive strategy like Mourinho Inter Vs Bayern 2010 or a Di Matteo Barcelona Vs Chelsea 2012 will pay for Chelsea purposes.
Jose Mourinho’s side played extremely defensively in the final two years ago, essentially continuing the strategy they’d used at the Nou Camp a few weeks earlier, despite the fact they were playing a much more attacking game in Serie A at the time. Will Chelsea do the same?
Broadly the same approach makes sense. No-one plays quite like Barcelona, but in terms of ball retention, Bayern are the closest thing. Barca lead the way in terms of average possession and pass completion rate across Europe’s major five leagues, but Bayern are second in both categories. Though they’ve always been a side with fine passers, they’ve become even more about retention since the final two years ago – then, they mixed possession play with direct play down the flanks from Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben. Those two are still in the side, of course, but tend to find themselves trying to break down packed, deep defences more frequently.
In a 0-0 context, Zonalmarking expects a game controlled by Bayern Munch in terms of ball possession.
There isn’t too much to say here. This is highly unlikely to be a possession battle – Bayern will dominate the ball, while Chelsea will focus upon organisation and counter-attacking quickly down the flanks. It’s difficult to see that Chelsea would be any better off by attempting to dominate the play. Around 60-65% Bayern possession is probable while the game is 0-0.
Bayern Munich key factors:
Chelsea defensive line. Chelsea could defend deep and narrow against Barcelona because Barcelona don’t have a natural number nine, nor do they like putting crosses into the box from wide positions. But this situation is different – first, Bayern do have a number nine in Mario Gomez. In combination with Chelsea missing both Terry and Ivanovic, his aerial power could be crucial and therefore Chelsea can’t drop too deep.
Second, Bayern have proper wingers on either side who will take advantage of being able to get up to full speed before taking on the full-backs. The caveat, of course, is that both Ribery and Robben play as inverted wingers and naturally want to come inside onto their stronger foot. Therefore, Chelsea will want to show them down the line, but not so much that they have time to cross – as both can do so, even with their weaker foot. It’s a complex equation for what should be a very simple problem – the basic conclusion is that Chelsea’s full-backs need to play well.
Chelsea key factors:
Chelsea transitions. This is absolutely key. Di Matteo will have studied Dortmund’s 5-2 German Cup final victory over Bayern last weekend, and noted how efficient and dangerous they were on the break. The formula was simple – Dortmund’s attacking midfielder Shinji Kagawa make himself available for the out-ball, then the Dortmund wingers Kevin Grosskreutz and Jakub Blaszczykowski immediately sped past the Bayern full-backs, taking advantage of a moment’s hesistation from Lahm and Alaba when Bayern lost the ball. Quickly, 3 v 2 and 4 v 3 situations emerged on the break.
The absence of Ramires is a huge blow in this respect, but Malouda and Kalou have the discipline and energy required to form a second bank of four, then burst towards goal. But it’s important that Chelsea have a clear line of service to them – Lampard has been brilliant playing balls out to Ramires from deep in recent weeks and will need to do the same here, and if Mata plays as the number ten, he has to be intelligent with his movement like Kagawa was, moving deep into the channels and finding space, then laying the ball off quickly for the wingers speeding past him.
Appendix 2. The big game for sponsors
Not only Bayern and Chelsea are in front of a decissive game in May 19, 2012. Sponsors also play an can win a lot, or not.
This will be a Adidas final, as the German firm is sportwear sponsor of both Bayern Munich and Chelsea FC. Last year there was a Nike final, with sponsored teams FC Barcelona and Manchester United.
These are the ad weapons used by Adidas to activate the sponsorship and increase brand awareness.
adidas Fußball – UEFA Champions League Finals: go all in for your team! Day 1!
adidas Fußball – UEFA Champions League Finals: go all in for your team! Day 2!
adidas Fußball – UEFA Champions League Finals: go all in for your team! Day 3!
Many readers know now that Nike has launched an astonishing ad as powerful marketing reaction. This is a move very similar to ambush marketing, as Nike has deployed all means (mainly in Twitter with promoted top Tweets and TT hasthtag) to completely control social media conversation, just the day before the grand Adidas final. You can watch here the three minutes Youtube video that is getting extraordinary viral diffusion and an overwelming positive acceptance among football fans. Of course, not surprisingly, the video includes some Nike stars playing in the final, like Frank Ribéry who even appears as the cover caption of the video (wearing a Nike France team jersey).
Appendix 3: Measuring the Twitter impact of Chelsea winning the Champions 2012
Exact Target Social Media Lab has monitored the Twitter impact of Chelsea winning the Champions League 2012.
Update: This post is all about social media perceptions before press conference was given by FC Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola about his future. By 13:38 CET 27 April 2012. Sandro Rosell, President FC Barcelona:
Sandro Rosell announces that Josep Guardiola will not continue as FC Barcelona’s manager. #FCBLive
The post content, written before the announcement was made.
Another sport related post in our blog about crisis and media coverage. This time is the analysis related with the decision to be announced today by head coach of FC Barcelona, Pep Guardiola about his decision to sign a new contract or to step down as coach.
This decision is being followed by anxiety by team supporters, as it is right now completely unclear the final outcome.
Corporate or institutional crisis are not always a matter of tragedies, scandals or problems. When an organization is about to take a relevant decision strongly affecting its future development and direction, the organization enters into a crisis framework. Decision making process, the announcement of the decision, risks of filtrations before of the official announcement, the design of the aftermath and the subsequent decisions fall all of them inside the culture of communication crisis process, protocol and management.
We will provide some insights about how this crisis is perceived in the social media, using as in the previous cases Twitter content analysis.
We want first show some examples of how local media is perceiving this sport related crisis as a major social issue, as it takes the main protagonism in the cover page of all local newspapers (when there is still no news, as decision is not taken!). We outline the cover proposed by Barcelona city daily sport newspaper El Mundo Deportivo, as it captures in a somptuous journalistic way the degree of incertitute concerning the outcome of the ongoing crisis.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
What do people expect/fear/think about the decision by Pep Guardiola? The scientific way to approach this issue is to run a state-of -the-art survey asking this question to FC Barcelona aficionados and football supporters in general. This is not a for free exercice.
Another way to grasp insights about this issue is to run non scientific surveys, using as platforms news providers asking this question to viewers/readers. People respond by phone, sms or using on-line surveys. On-line newspapers are aware that the results are not scientific and many times are of limited utility, as answers are highly influenced by many variales that create non representative results (bias coming from the specific profile of readers or from those interested in answering the online survey, as there is no a random selection of respondents).
Twitter communication suffer also from some of these problems of lack of truly representativeness. But it is also true that some sources of bias tend to cancel. This is mainly due to the fact that Twitter is a by definition a pure open communication space, and because every comment receives the same space. It is true that not all tweets receive the same consideration, as comments liked by other people in Twitter community will be promoted as reference tweets in the Twitter timeline, increasing thus thier influencing role. But every single tweet is available to all Twitter community and directly reachable by the followers of that account.
Let’s see the results concerning the feeling expressed in Twitter concerning the chances that Pep Guardiola will renew his contract with FC Barcelona.
First results concern the analysis of tweets published from people in Spain.
We find that only 33.7% Twitter users expect that Guardiola will stay as coach in FC Barcelona this next season. 66.3% feel that he will quit. Results cover tweets between 19 and 27 April 2012.
In the following graph we show the daily evolution of Twitter sentiment about Guardiola chances quitting FC Barcelona. Values moved around 60% of people thinking that Pep was about to quit, between 19 and 25 April. By 26 April it was announced that a decision was taken, and that a day after Guardiola with President sandro Rosell would announce it in a press conference. This information was understood with pessimism by people expecting Guardiola staying in FC Barcelona. The share of people thinking that Guardiola would announce he leaves Barcelona sharply increased to 78%. This is also a consequence of the neagtive mood channeled by online newspapers, well reflected in some of the cover pages shown above. During the morning of April 27, before the announcement is made, 72.6% people think that Guardiola will step down.
Feelings in Madrid and in Barcelona
As we have shown in previous posts about the UEFA Champions League Semifinals and about El Clásico Barcelona Vs Real Madrid, we can also conduct detailed Twitter sentiment analysis by regions.
We have analysed how are perceptions about the chances of Guardiola staying in FC Barcelona one more season in cities of Barcelona and Madrid.
According to our results, people in Barcelona are slightly more optimistic than average about the chances of Guardiola signing again, with a ‘he will quit’ share of 62.4% Vs a global average of 66.3%. People in Madrid are slightly more ‘pessimistic’ about Guardiola future in FC Barcelona, as 68.1% predict that he will quit.
Even if differences of behaviour are not very strong, bias in perception tend to suggest again the presence of passion and rivalry. Guardiola has been managing the most sport successful period in all FC Barcelona history, which menas also that arch-rival Real Madrid supporters consider Guardiola as responsible for limited successo their team Passion for people in Barcelona influencing their perception, transforming some of the expected estimantions in hope and wish. Rivalry in Madrid is channeled also by predictions somehow influeced by hope and with that he will not stay as FC Barcelona coach.
If Pep Guardiola leaves, my preferred coach for FC Barcelona is…
We show which are the preferences shown by people in Twitter assuming that Pep Guardiola quits FC Barcelona. Thee are results in all Twitter network written in Spanish.
According to our results, there is a clear main choice for people debating about FC Barcelona sport management. This is Argentinian Marcelo Bielsa, current coach of Athletic de Bilbao. He obtains 55.6% of all mentions.
Second preferred option, far away from Bielsa, is Ernesto Valverde, current trainer of Olikpiakos, and former coach of Athletic de Bilbao and Espanyol. He receives 13.1% mentions. Third option considered is Villas-Boas, former coach of Chelsea FC and Porto (9.7%). Marginal ‘votes’ for other options mentionned by the media, like Luis Enrique (6.9%), Tito Vilanova (2.7%), Joachim Löw (1.9%) or Del Bosque (1.2%).
Reacting to expected stepping down decision by Pep Guardiola
How is people reacting to the expected decision to leave FC Barcelona? Even if Pep Guardiola is a well respected figure in the context of football and sport, the answer probably depends on who you are.
We have measured happiness index (ratio of strong positive vs negative personal reactions sown in a tweet) for the last 24 hours, when it was most apparent that the decision was not to continue in FC Barcelona next season.
We have monitored Twitter reactions in cities of Barcelona and Madrid. The results below show that, as expected, people are more sad about the announcement in Barcelona than in Madrid. The average Happiness Index value for the last 24 hours is -39 in Barcelona and +13 in Madrid. (min:-100, max:+100)
Appendix 1
Video: Pep Guardiola’s greatest (and maddest) moments, Mirror, 27 April 2012
Pep Guardiola, The Greatests Soccer Artist Ever?, CNN, 27 April 2012
Inspirational Guardiola leaves powerful legacy, Reuters, 27 April 2012
Appendix 2. Youtube Videos About Pep Guardiola in FC Barcelona
FC Barcelona – Gràcies Pep. An official tribute by FC Barcelona. Duration: 1:31
Pep Guardiola Press Conference. Pep explains why he is leaving. Translation in English. Duration: 2:55
Pep Guardiola, Full Press Conference announcing he leaves FC Barcelona, in Spanish. Duration: 1h 04.
.
Appendix 3. Last Game of Pep Guardiola in Camp Nou: FC Barcelona Vs Espanyol 4-0, May 5, 2012
Video: official video by FC Barcelona with tribute at Camp Nou, in his last game. Duration: 12:41
Pep Guardiola’s speech in farewell tribute, in English.
Good evening everyone, it seems that life has made me this gift, for five years I could have you so close to me, enjoy this wonderful show that these guys have been giving all along. I am no different from you, I am as privileged as you. Know the appreciation that I take home with me, this feeling is so dear, so dear, …what I’ve seen today, all the time, every day, you wouldn’t believe the feelings and happiness that I take with me.
Thanks to absolutely everyone, especially those who have been closer, because day by day we’ve been working harder for you to enjoy and have a good time watching the game play, simple as that, and you, that may not be so so close, we’ve felt you so close too.
I’ve the most to lose, I’m the one who will miss you all, I leave you in the absolutely best hands and the players you have seen all along during this period of time.
The belt too tight now I loosened, my dears you don’t have to follow me. Keep your belts tight, because all this is going to last for pretty long. I wish you all the best and the best of lucks. See you soon back, you’ll never lose me, ever.
Translation by Youtube user ‘ciroaisa’
Lyrics of song ‘Que tinguem sort’ in Catalan and in English
Besides Coldplay’s Viva la Vida (a song that become an anthem in first season with six titles won), there is abother song used live in the Camp Nou tribute (2:40-4:40). This is ‘Que tinguem sort’, by catalan folk singer Lluís Llach. It is a song of new life commitments and endeavors and farewell. I show here the lyrics and a translation provided by Albert Cla (source elyrics.net)
This is our fourth post in the series about football (soccer) and measuring behaviour of supporters using social media analysis, with Twitter content analysis.
Like in the previous two posts of this blog, we will provide some measures about perception bias of football club supporters, using the information published in Twitter.
We analyzed first the case of the Spanish Clasico FC Barcelona Vs Real Madrid, showing who were the most relevant stars of the match in global Twitter audience. We found also that the majority of people in Twitter worldwide expected a local win (60% of all predictions). Real Madrid actually won 1-2, a victory expected only by 22% of all twitter users.
We also presented a couple of days ago the results concerning the predicting behavior about the match FC Barcelona Vs Chelsea. We studied in that case how biased the expected sport success is biased by Twitter users living in the directly affected cities, Barcelona and London. Passion provoking biased personal perception of team supporters is a largely expected and almost self evident result. But the interesting thing is to use Twitter driven knowledge to assess the extent of the bias in each supporters camp. This provides information about which team supporters are more confident with their team success and which supporters are more distanced from actual winning probabilities measured by external sources (on-line professional betting firms).
We perform again the same analysis applied to the second semifinal, Real Madrid Vs Bayern Munich. This time we add an additional analysis: which are the predictions from rival team supporters?
First result refers to predictions made by Twitter users in Madrid city. We find as expected a massive confidence in Real Madrid sport performance, as 91% people expect that Real Madrid will beat Bayern Munich. Real Madrid lost the first leg match in Germany, 2-1. This means that in some cases, even if Real Madrid wins at home, it requires winning by a 1-0 or by a more than one goal of difference. We find that there are some 9% of bettors that expect Real Madrid winning but Bayern Munich going to the final. This means that 82% people in Madrid expects that Real Madrid will reach the final game versus Chelsea FC. Optimism and confidence is strong, but it is slightly lower than positive expectation showed by people from Barcelona about FC Barcelona success (89%), that did not actually happen.
There are only 3% of people publishing tweets in Madrid expecting even that local team will lose the match at home. Living in Madrid does not mean necessarily being a Real Madrid supporter. There are a fraction of people in Madrid supporting rival clubs, like Atlético de Madrid or even FC Barcelona.
Now, the analysis concerning the expected results by Bayern Munich supporters. Surprisingly for us, we found a very limited number of Twitter predictions emerging from the city of Munich in Germany, that made the results not representative. We have been forced to analyse all game forecasts made by all football supporters in Germany to gather a relevant number of predictions.
The limited amount of predictions about Real Madrid – Bayern Munich game in comparison to predictions in Madrid, Barcelona and London may arise from different reasons. The most important one is that this result is telling us that Twitter has a smaller penetration rate among internet users in Germany than in Spain and Britain. Another explanation is that people in Germany feel less appealing in making personal forecast about football results, while this is a tradition in Spain (‘porras’) and in Britain (well known sport betting culture). Third explanation may be that people in Munich are less interested than people in Madrid with football and with this game; but knowing the massive popularity of football in Germany, this cause would be weak at most.
Again, as expected, predictions coming from Germany are much more positive about the chances for Bayern Munich eliminating Real Madrid. 73% people expect that Bayern Munich will be able to go to the final, at home, as it will be played in the Allianz Arena, in Munich. Among them, 55% even expect that Bayern will be able to beat Real Madrid away, while another 18% feel that Bayern Munich will lose the game, but the advance got in Munich will be enough to create an advantage in aggregate result. Some 27% fear that Real Madrid will win and eliminate Bayern Munich. Remember that these are predictions from all Germany, and they can come from people strongly disliking Bayern Munich or have Real Madrid as preferred team.
Combining both results, we have that people from Madrid are more confident than people from Germany about the sport success of their local team.
The announced third element of this post is to show views coming from Barcelona city. Some of you familiar with football (soccer) may now that Real Madrid and FC Barcelona are arch-rivals teams. Rivalry is not closed to local national competition, the Spanish Liga. Both teams have been tremendously successful in international competitions. For many supporters, an international success of the rival team is seen as harming for its own interests and pride. Many (not all) supporters in both camps strongly wish that the rival team is eliminated by a non Spanish team. See for instance the public statement by former president of FC Barcelona Joan Gaspart: ”I could not care less about the game between Madrid and Bayern. I don’t care if they are a Spanish team. I am anti-Madridista” (Goal.com 25 April 2012)
Using Twitter content analysis we can appreciate how this rivalry influences predictions about sport performance. We have monitored predictions about Real Madrid Vs Bayern Munich game published by people in Barcelona. This case is specially sensitive and interesting in the present framework, as FC Barcelona was eliminated the day before Real Madrid is fighting for reaching the final game. After FC Barcelona failure, as it usually happens, some Real Madrid fans shown their happiness for Barcelona elimination. This reaction may in return influence predictions from FC Barcelona supporters about Real Madrid chances.
We find that just 50% people in Barcelona expect that Real Madrid will reach the final against Chelsea. This is much lower than sentiment in Madrid (82%), but higher than what supporters expect in Germany. Of course, this result is not intended to be considered as something representative about sentiments of all people in Barcelona. It just shows manifested preferences from a very small non representative share of people, as we have explained in a previous post. But even if not representative, they are revealing, and they show that rivalry strongly affects and bias personal perception about sport performance. The results reflect probably more a wish than a actual inner perception about the expected match result.
What about actual qualifying probabilities of each team?
Like in the previous post, we look at estimations established by the leading professional on-line betting firm, Bwin.com. Based in the odds offered to bettors, the gambling company estimates that Real Madrid is favorite to go to the final, with 62% of probabilities. Bayern Munich is assigned with 38% of probabilities of success.
This means that over optimism is each camp is of 20 points in Madrid, and 35 points in Germany. Predictions made by people in Barcelona are more positive than the actual ones concerning the chances of Bayern Munich to go to the final (prediction of 50% Vs actual probability of 38%).
Update: Bayern Munich goes to the grand final, playing at home against Chelsea FC.
About Media Impact and Sport:
See our studies about measuring media impact and media value in football and other sports in our site, Economics, Sport and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra
Also, other posts about sport and media analysis in this blog:
FC Barcelona and Real Madrid play again one of these ‘definitive’ games that they are living these last seasons, 21 April 2012. FC Barcelona and Real Madrid are the leading global brands in football, one of most popular and global sports. Even if they are fighting for the local national championship, the Spanish Liga BBVA, this sport event attracts attention not only from Spanish aficionados, but also from football supporters and lovers from all over the world. International media attention is huge, as well as TV broadcasting.
FC Barcelona and Real Madrid are the most powerful football brands, in almost all perspectives. For instance, according to the studies carried out by our sport related research unit, Economics, Sports and Intangibles, ESI Universidad de Navarra, FC Barcelona is the number one in the world in terms of global media coverage in season 2010/11, with 98.1 points, followed by Real Madrid with 86.1 points. Third club in the ranking is Manchester United, but far away, with 65.6 points. (You can download here a summary of the report in Spanish)
Source: Football Media Value Report, season 2010/11, ESI Universidad de Navarra
Media value provide a direct measure of the power of football clubs as brands, and media value is the key variable for explaining the commercial power of football clubs, as we have statitstically confirmed in several studies (see for instance Report about Media Value in Football, season 2007/07, chapter 4, in English, or otherwise season 2009/10, chapter 5, in Spanish). If you consider direct measures of financial power, we find again that Real Madrid and FC Barcelona are the leading players in world football sector.
Every single Clasico (FCB Vs RM) is in a sense a crisis, where every single event and incident happening aroung the game, before, during and after it, usually provocke massive media impact, with their positive and negative effects in Barcelona and Real Madrid brands.
We have analysed in the past the media impact of Clasicos, under different perspectives. You can check for instance the analysis in this post concerning the impact in Real Madrid image of the controversial statements by Real Madrid coach José Mourinho in a press conference accusing UEFA of conspirancy against Real Madrid interests. (Check Mourinho Reputation. The Impact of UEFA Disciplinary Case in Real Madrid Image)
Now we propose an analysis based in social media impact. We have monitored Twitter concerning El Clasico. As Twitter is a completely open and free source, accessible to all, and run by anonymous individual users, the analysis of twitter communications and flows can provide information about social media power of brands Real Madrid and Barcelona, as well as the power of the different football stars.
We present first the results concerning mentions about players from Real Madrid and Barcelona, in order to check their relative visibility among Twitter users. WE have monitored the two days before the game, 19 and 20 April 2012. Our results tell us that FC Barcelona counts with a slight advantage, as FC Barcelona players generate 53% of all tweets about the Clasico, and 47% for Real Madrid.
Second step is individual analysis. First move concerns the relative power of top mega stars, Argentinian Leo Messi from FC Barcelona and Portuguese Cristiano Ronaldo from Real Madrid. They arrive to the Clasico showing a really extraordinary performance. Each one has scored 41 goals in previous 33 games. These figures are already all time high records, when there are still five games more before the end of the championship. Our results indicate that there is again a great balance, with a slight advantage for FC Barcelona Leo Messi, with 53% of all tweets, and 47% for Cristiano Ronaldo.
In the chapter of coaches, we observe an overwhelming domination of Real Madrid sport manager, Portugues José Mourinho. He is the reference in 71% of all tweets about the coaches, for 29% for Barcelona coach, pep Guardiola. This domination is more significative if we consider that Mourinho is refusing to provide press conferences since several weeks, and questionning is perfomed by aid trainer Karanka.
In the following two figures we show the visibility reached by each component of teams Real Madrid and FC Barcelona. In both cases, franchise players Messi and Ronaldo are responsible for some 35% of all social media impact of all team members.
El Clasico Ultimate Duels: Messi Vs Cristiano Ronaldo
Monitoring Twitter communications is becoming a critical tool for capturing social media mood concerning corporations, celebrities, public personalities, institutions or events. Twitter analytics will provide new sources of knowledge for better understanding corporate reputation. There are many PR and CRS experts that view social media in a very skeptical way. This is not our perception, and we perceive at MRI Universidad de Navarra social media driven information (specially coming from Twitter and Youtube) will play a determinant role in advanced brand management strategies.
In this section we present some findings apllying basic Twitter content analysis.
Rea Madrid and FC Barcelona arreive to this 2012 Clasico in a context of extraordinary and unprecedented sport performance. They completely dominate the local league, as third ranked team, Valencia has an historical gap of 29 points. Real Madrid has reached the all time record in goals scored in a regular season, with 107 goals (3.24 goals per game), and there are still 5 games to play. FC Barcelona is not far away in this ranking, with 96 goals. Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi are top scorers in the league, both with 41 goals. This is top scoring marks in Europe, and represents also a top scoring record in Spanish Liga. Goalkeepers Valdés (FCB) and Casillas (RM) are leading their ranking. Finally, the arch-rivalry between both clubs is translated into their sport managers, Mourinho and Guardiola.
This is a game of ultimate duels. The question is how people perceive this match as a matter of personal duels or, instead, each club supporters follow their own stars without considering what happens with the rival star. Answering this question is quite difficult, for instance by using news analysis or surveys. But Twitter messaging behavior may be revealing for dealing with this topic.
We have monitored the tweets conerning all these potential duels, in order to evaluate their intensity. Our strategy consists in identifying the share of tweets that refer exclusively to one of the two contendants and the share of tweets that refer to both of them. The scarcity of space (the mytical 140 characters) make that the Clasico is considered as a duel for the couple considered if they appear both in the same message.
Messi Vs Cristiano Ronaldo
You can find in the infography below the statistics concerning the extraordinary sport performance of both football stars.
Source: Marc Creus / Carles Javierre, Diario Sport
We show first the results concerning the main stars in the pitch, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. According to our results, the game in Camp Nou is seen clearly as an exciting personal duel between both mega stars, as they appear in the same tweets in 43% of all tweets about Messi and/or Cristiano Ronaldo. Twitter analysis refer to tweets published between 18 and 21 (12h CET) April 2012.
Notice that now the share of exclusive tweets referring to only one of the stars, Messi increases his advantage with Cristiano Ronaldo, with a share 34% Vs 23%.
Iker Casillas Vs Víctor Valdés
Second duel analyzed in this post is team goalkeepers. Víctor Valdés from FC Barcelona has conceded less goals (24) than Real Madrid keeper Iker Casillas (29). Iker Casillas is more veteran in number of Clasicos disputed. Striker stars will be determinant in the final result of the game, but goalkeepers may also play a major role.
According to our results, Twitter users perceive the Clasico as a personal goalkeepers duel in 18% of all tweets. If we compare this value with the one concerning Messi vs CR7 (43%), this is telling us information about the intensity of the expectations about the combined performance of Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Looking at exclusive individual tweets, we observe that Twitter community focus much more on Iker Casillas role (75%) than to Valdés (7%).
Seizing Social Media Mood: El Clasico Forecasts by Twitter Users
One of the greatness of sport is that the final outcome of the game is never fully predictable. Result incertitude is higher in football (soccer for North American readers) than in other sports like basketball or tennis.
Predicting football game results is something almost intrinsically linked to professional sports. Betting may be a matter of gambling in the expectation to correctly guess the result and make money. In big games like the Clasico, it is also very typical to run ‘porras’ among friends, by creating a common pool of money to be distributed among a close set of bettors, like friends, co-workers or members of associations.
There are also many on-line newspapers (sports oriented or not) asking readers to chose the expected result. Newspapers normally publish the global result prior to the game, as means to provide information about public sentiment about the outcome of the game. These global results tend to be systematically biased, as there is no newspaper that attract the representative share of supporters from both competing teams.
We have a clear indirect reference of actual perception of the expected game result by checking the information of the offered odds by on-line betting firms. Odds are established by stratistical models, and are adjusted by actual demand by bettors. We count with the information about what gambling firms offer as a bet, but they do not provide direct information about actual betting distribution.
We propose in this blog to consider the valuable information that an open social media channel like Twitter offers for measuring directly the public sentiment towards different events, like the expected outcome of the football game FC Barcelona Vs Real Madrid.
Many Twitter users publish spontaneously their prediction about the result of the Clasico. In some other cases it responds to questions launched by other Twitter accounts. There is no an ex ante reason to assume that the amount and distribution of predictions are biased towards one of the two teams. There is no strong reason to affirm that the share of RM-FCB people interacting in Twitter is different that the actual one outside the Twitter community. It may eventually be different, but it is impossible to say a priori if the bias is in favor of one or the other team.
We present you the results concerning the predictions made by Twitter users about the expected outcome of the Clasico of 21 April 2012, as shown in the figure below.
According to our results, the most probable result of the Clasico is 3-1 for Barcelona, chosen by 17.1% of total forecasts; second most popular choice is 2-1 for Barcelona (12.3%). The third result more frequently predicted is a win for Real Madrid, 1-2, in 9.2% of all cases.
If we sum up the combined results of all predictions, we have the global forecasting picture as shown in the following figure. Our results say that 60% of Twitter users (writting in Spanish) expect that FC Barcelona will win the Clasico. In the other side 22% of Twitter made predictions expect that Real Madrid will win in Camp Now. Another 18% expect a draw between both teams. FC Barcelona needs a victory to still hope for winning 2011/12 Liga Championship.
About Media Impact and Sport:
See our studies about measuring media impact and media value in football and other sports in our site, Economics, Sport and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra
Also, other posts about sport and media analysis in this blog:
Appendix 1: Youtube Videos El Clasico 2012 Barcelona Vs Real Madrid 1-2 Highlights
We put in the appendix information from external sources.
One information that may be interesting for people reading this post, specially when time will go on, is to watch tha highlights fo the football match.
You can watch below some video highlights.
Video 1. Game Extended Highlights. Comments in English. Duration: 22:15
This post is a reaction to the surprising sponsoring decision taken by Saxo Bank as an epitome of an audacious counterintuitive marketing movement that, even if highly risky, may be very rewarding.
For those not familiar with the story, we outline the basic facts of this sponsorship case.
Saxo Bank is a Danish financial institution created in year 1992 basically oriented to brokerage and trading operations. Saxo Bank launched its international expansion by 2001 as one of online trading references.
Saxo Bank entered into the field of sport sponsoring by year 2008, becoming the title sponsor of the cycling team managed by Danish champion Bjarne Riis. In August 2010 Saxo Bank announced their decision to extend the deal one year more, and incorporated Alberto Contador as new team leader.
Alberto Contador is one of the main references in the current cycling sphere. He has won the Tour de France three times (2007, 2009 and 2010), which is the main international competition. He has won the Giro d’Italia (2008, 2011) and the Vuelta a España (2008)
Few weeks after signing, in September 2010, it was publicly disclosed that Contador was under investigation as some traces of clenbuterol were found in one of the antidoping controls during the Tour de France 2010. Alberto Contador was judged first by the Spanish Institutions (Spanish Cycling Federation). Before sentence was dicted, the Spanish Prime Minister gave a surprising public statement saying that he considered that Alberto Contador was clean. The main leader of the opposition, Mariano Rajoy (now Prime Minister) also publicly supported the athlete considering him innocent of the charges. Finally, the Spanish Commission acquitted Alberto Contador.
The World Antidoping Agency (WADA) and UCI considered that the tribunal received unfair political pressure and decided to made a recourse and judge the case again. After a long and costly judicial battle, the Agency declared Alberto Contador convicted for doping (6 February 2012) and imposed a 2 years ban to be counted since the traces were discovered. It implied the disqualification of all wins obtained since then, including 2010 Tour de France and 2011 Giro d’Italia.
This decision produced a huge international impact in the sport related media. It received also massive media coverage in Spain. Even if not scientifically driven, online surveys with massive participation showed that 85% of respondents in Spain considered this sanction to be unfair. In general, international media and professionals received the decision with satisfaction. In France, the case was followed with interest. The polemic raised when of the TV comic programs, ‘Les Gignols de l’Info’, from Canal+ made spoofs spreading the doubt of doping practices to other Spanish sport champions like Rafa Nadal, Pau Gasol or Iker Casillas. This overreaction by French media reflects the international feeling that laws and political will in Spain are not committed enough to fight against doping practices.
2. Implications for the sponsorship deal
The anti-doping sanction has provoked a huge negative media impact. It tarnishes the Alberto Contador’s prestige and trust. It has also directly financial implications for the athlete, as he cannot recover all legal expenses assumed for his defense. He was called for a multimillion fine linked to his salary by both WADA and CAS. Contador lost also his contract with Saxo Bank team. The ban expires in August 2011, and Contador is free to establish new contracts with other teams. Additionally, the sponsorship deal with Hugo Boss was also cancelled.
A convicted doping case in sports like cycling, athletics or swimming becomes always a notorious scandal in terms of media coverage if it refers to a leading sport discipline champion. This is the case. Negative media coverage about cheating explodes.
Potential negative brand impact of doping scandals are higher in cycling sponsorship as main sponsors are typically title sponsors. This implies that in almost every news about the athlete there is also an explicit mention of the team, and of the sponsoring firm. Here, Contador and Saxo Bank.
We have provided in previous empirical analysis of doping cases in Tour de France 2008 and 2009 how the revealed doping cases produce massive media impact and how it directly reaches the sponsors. We show some examples of our findings below in this post, in the Annex section. You can access to full reports (in Spanish) in our site Economics, Sport and Intangibles research group (ESI, a section of MRI Universidad de Navarra).
3. Saxo Bank surprising marketing reaction
Under this reputation crisis circumstances, all reputation management protocols call for a rapid and bold reaction from sponsoring firms. All propose the application of the contractual clauses allowing a termination of the agreement. This should be made without delay after the sanction is imposed, and in a public way, normally through a press release.
And suddenly and surprisingly, we learn that yesterday Sunday 12 February, many newspapers in France, and among them L’Equipe, the leading sport newspaper in France, published an ad by Saxo Bank showing Alberto Contador wearing the bank logo.
I find this case so exciting, that I presented it alredy to my students in my course ‘Sport and Brands’ and discussed it as counter example case.
The amazing part of the story was that the content of the message was not against Contador or presenting excuses to costumers and clients for this misbehavior.
The ad, as shown in the figure, states:
‘Les opportunités surviennent souvent après une crise. Chez Saxo Bank, nous sommes aux côtés de nos clients dans le succès comme dans les étapes difficiles et c’est aussi vrai pour nos coureurs’
(Opportunities often present themselves in times of crisis. We support clients in their moments of success and also of difficulty, and this is equally valid for our riders).
This is clearly an audacious movement, and set new rules to be applied in sponsorship management under exceptional circumstances.
This means that they have turned into supporting Alberto Contador, even if the sanction is accepted. And Saxo Bank marketing team choose to show this story in France where Contador has been probably the most attacked by media and public opinion.
It is a tremendously risky decision, but our perception is that they have chosen the winning touch.
And with this decision they tell us that in this period of financial turmoil and economic crisis, Saxo Bank is not searching with greed for every cent of their customers, but understand and support them in their situation of economic distress.
As for the sponsoring deal itself, this decision shows that they consider this deal not only as a direct business ROI driven strategy, but also a commitment for a sport tarnished and punished by public opinion, but nevertheless a sport, and a demanding one.
We feel that this message will create a lot of empathy and will be translated into an increase of brand equity for Saxo Bank.
Later, we will provide results concerning our empirical analysis of media and social media reaction to this marketing startegy.
Audacity pays.
4. How Strong is Saxo Bank commitment towards cycling, Riis Cycling Team and Contador?
The unexpected ad supporting Alberto Contador in France creates surprise, which is one of the variables that marketers can choose to design an advertising campaign with strong and deep impact in viewers.
Shocking ads is a tool chosen by brands that need an increase of brand awareness and recognition and don’t need to preserve brand equity quality. It can also be used by brands targeting customers that are comfortable and like innovative, aggressive or appealing messages and brand values. Finally, shocking messages can be chosen by well established brands wanting to show commitment for some cherished values and are asking costumers and viewers for a personal reaction.
The marketing strategy followed by Saxo Bank is shocking. It creates bold reactions. The question is to which extent is reveals pure provocation and opportunism or if, by contrast, it shows a true support for a fallen (innocent?) hero as means to present their own corporate values.
We cannot provide a sharp answer. But we can try to grasp pieces of evidence by checking out how serious is Saxo Bank commitment towards Alberto Contador and the cycling team, Riis Cycling.
First consideration is that Saxo Bank entered into the cycling sponsoring only in year 2008, in a three years long contract. This is nevertheless not strange, as this financial institution started its international expansion only after year 2001. They announced in year 2010 their intention to stop supporting cycling, after the storm doping years 2008-2010 in cycling. They reverse this decision when they announced the signing of the two year contract with Alberto Contador by August 2010.
What about current presence and treatment by Saxo Bank with this partnership with cycling, after the two years ban to Contador for doping was announced?
If we check the main page of official Saxo Bank web site, we do not find any reference at all to Contador and cycling Team Saxo Bank. It shows clearly their profile fully oriented to brokerage. The internet label of their site is ‘Forex Trading Online / Trade FX, CFDs, FX Options at Saxo Bank’. This is, a financial institution linked to speculative financial transactions.
You need to move into second layer sections to find information about Saxo Bank engagement outside their core business. In their ‘Saxo World’ section there is a reference to sponsorships, and we find the first visual reference to Alberto Contador as the image Saxo Bank uses for all sponsorship programs. This design is for sure previous to the current ban situation (we did not check it before, nevertheless), but it has not (yet?) hidden and substituted by other sponsored examples (like education or arts).
Both main page and this page suggest that Saxo Bank does not consider sport sponsorship as an strategic tool, but that they do not feel shame in being Alberto Contador’s sponsors.
If we move to national adpated sites, we do not find a direct mention to Contador in es.saxobank.com main page. By contrast, the ad published in French newspapers do appear in the main page of the French site fr.saxobank.com. We do not reprint them here to save space.
Then, if you access sponsorship section you find that currently (14 February 2012), Alberto Contador is the main reference used as company ambassador of all sponsorship programs, and also of the sponsoring deal with Team Saxo Bank. Now, these two pieces of evidence show that Saxo Bank is showing pride to count with Alberto Contador.
All in all, we experience mixed feelings. It is clear that they have not abandoned at all the visibility of they provided to Alberto Contador partnership, as flagship of their sponsoring activities. But we are unsure if this responds to a straight decision and strategic commitment with cycling and Contador, or if it is just a matter of lack of reaction and reviewing of the corporate communication management.
5. Tracking the communication crisis protocol followed by Saxo Bank
We can try to gather additional pieces of evidence about the underlying sponsorship policy followed by Saxo Bank and the role of the ad published in French newspapers by gauging the crisis protocol followed by Saxo Bank.
Corporate reputation crisis emerge normally unexpectedly. Extraordinary specific things happen randomly and by definition they cannot be planned. Risks of suffering extraordinary specific events are no null, and thus a crisis protocol can be designed in advance of the occurrence of every single harming event. There is no justification for a performing corporation for not having designed the appropriate response to apply for every single event which risk of occurrence is no cero. It’s a matter of expertise, cumulated knowledge, lessons learned from experiences suffered by others and finally a matter of imagination. Dramatic events from 11 Sep 2001 in new York to 13 March 2011 in Japan tell us that there is no limit for assuming the weirdest scenarios. And it is relatively costless to define and design the best response to provide for each single case.
There are also some reputation crises that are completely expected and identified previously, even if nothing can be done to avoid the emergence of the crisis. A legal sentence affecting corporate interests is one of these cases.
Alberto Contador’s conviction for doping substances was a perfectly scheduled reputation crisis, for all affected parties. This was one of the possible outcomes of the judicial process.
In this perfectly controlled framework, any professional corporate communications department should have a perfectly defined communication strategy and plan. We understand that Saxo Bank decisions after doping sanctions could not respond to spontaneous and ex post analysis of the situation.
Our intention is thus to identify the position taken by Saxo Bank in regard of Alberto Contador by showing and analysing main official and public communication steps followed by Saxo Bank since 6 February 2012.
First result is that there is no a formal press release launched by Saxo Bank about this issue. This is apparently a no issue in Saxo Bank headquarters.
Even if there is no an official statement, we count with quasi official documents: Twitter messages in the official corporate account. We find there some mentions to the case the day after the sanction was announced. There is a series of three direct tweets plus a Retweet from an Alberto Contador Twitter account. They are sequentially united in time and in content. Here they are (to be read from bottom upwards):
What can we learn about Saxo Bank position from the reading of these messages?
We find a direct support to the cycling team, and a commitment to stay financially engaged with Bjarne Riss team. They also show compassion for Alberto Contador situation, and they even advocate ‘personally’ the innocence of the rider.
These messages also show that at that moment Saxo Bank did not consider to continue the contractual partnership with Alberto Contador. This decision was at best suspended if we consider that no reference to the issue reflects a calculated ambiguity, waiting for a best moment to announce the continuation after the media shock was absorbed.
It can be noticed also that, in contrast with main website, main Twitter site is clearly exposing Alberto Contador image in the front page. This is a clear signal of commitment supporting Alberto Contador, but as we did not check it before the shocking ad took place, we do not know which images were used in the right aftermath of CAS sentence.
In the first published tweet, Saxo Bank representative show full support to Bjarne Riis and redirect to the press release published by him. This is the content of the message of cycling Team Saxo Bank manager.
Interestingly enough, it drives to a site where the respondent is Riis Cycling and no Team Saxo Bank: the name and the logo of the financial institution is again not directly linked to the doping affaire.
The content of the message shows that this official press release by Team Saxo Bank (through team owner Riss) was launched the same day that the sentence was given. As for the content, we do not find any direct mention backing Contador as continuing full member of the team.
Then came the sport side response to the sanctions, in the press conference by 7 February, already mentioned in Bjarne Riis press release.
As for Alberto Contador statements we have (See the English version of the speech in the official Alberto Contador site.
1. He insists in his innocent on the charges for doping substances use.
2. He announces his decision to continue as professional cyclist after ban expiration.
3. He thanks team and sponsors by the support received:
I want to thank my team for the great support they’ve given me and continue to give me, always based on truth, and the sponsors as well, for trusting me and remaining confident. I will keep giving 100% for them in every race, always.
This statement suggests that in Alberto Contador views, he won’t be expelled from Team Saxo Bank and from his own side, he intends to stay in the team after ban expiration. But both aspects are not explicitly said.
(…). Last but not least, throughout this case we chose to fully support Alberto Contador, until things would prove, that this should be different.
Today I would like to say that we continue to fully support Alberto based on the ruling from CAS. The ruling states that it is very unlikely this has anything to do with conscious cheating. The most likely reason is instead accidental intake of a supplement. This is very important for us. So our trust in Alberto is intact.
I do not know you, but this is statement is quite confusing for me, as it combines ‘fully support’ (unconditional in the Spanish version) with a trust relying in the fact that “the most likely reason is instead accidental intake of a supplement. This is very important for us”. It is ambiguous and unclear the extent of the support of Team Saxo Bank to Alberto Contador.
Two days after, by 9 February came another reaction and contact with media by Saxo Bank management. Co-CEO Lars Seier Christensen gave an interview to El País journalist, and was published. As it did not appear as formal official note (we have shown that there is no such a document), it could suggest a subtle way to preserve corporate reputation in case that global public opinion turned negative not only against Alberto Contador but also to his sponsors. If a leading representative presents the company views through a newspaper interview, it could always leave room for a subsequent amendment of corporate views signalling a misunderstanding of company representative position by the interviewer or bad words chosen by the Co-CEO and founder.
You can check here the original news in El País, in Spanish, or you can refer to the English translation of it, provided and published by another official communication channel from Alberto Contador, AlbertoContadorNotebook.info.
What is the new information we gain concerning Saxo Bank commitment and support towards Alberto Contador?
Before it, we need to signal a really amazing statement by the sponsor:
I don’t think that doping is the big problem in cycling. It’s a calamity that impacts our rider, that has been very unfortunate given the circumstances. In spite of it, the doping problems are very small today compared to what they were, for example, in the 90´s.
It is really hard to give an explanation to this views, as they come by the title sponsor of a team currently suffering a terrible reputation crisis, in the context of a sport discipline severely damaged in terms of credibility and public opinion support. This lack of trust is not due to scandals in the 90′s, but to the repeated and dramatic positive doping cases affecting top cycling champions and Tour de France winners in the last five years (Lance Armstrong 1999-2005, tested positive but not sanctioned, Floyd Landys 2006, Rasmussen and Vinokourov 2007, Alberto Contador 2007, 2009, 2010). This is really a killing series of scandals for any sport discipline. Really, astonishing statement by Saxo Bank CEO.
As for the matter that we are analysing, we find again a personal support to Alberto Contador, as Mr Christensen affirms that he is convinced that Contador is innocent. He confirms that Saxo bank maintains its financial commitment with the team. There is a question concerning the impact of this scandal of Saxo Bank reputation, but Christensen answer refers to sport team performance impact.
We have also an interesting element concerning the sponsorship goals pursued by Saxo Bank. Again, this is not an official position, but it is clearly a qualified statement. Lars Seier Christensen says:
We’re a bank with clients all over the world and it’s difficult to reach into every part. There aren’t many things that reach as far as an international sport, and cycling is one of the most international sports, with the most competitions in many countries. It’s not perfect, because there are countries where cycling isn’t followed much, but compared to others, it’s a good investment. Contador opens a way for us to Spain and Latin America. We’ve just opened an large office in Madrid. It’s a good way to promote the bank and it’s less expensive that other sports, like Formula 1.
The interpretation of the statement is quite clear. In terms of brand management, the main objective of the sponsorship deal with cycling is basically to increase brand awareness: use cycling media exposure as a tool for making Saxo Bank brand known in new markets, specially in Spain and Latin America. As pointed out before, if your company is using sponsorship as simple media coverage tool and not as a true co-branding experience (combination and association of brand values), you are not looking for improving reputation. This implies the company is less sensitive and careful with the brand value profile of the sponsored sport brand and does not care specially about the eventual positive or negative events affecting the sport brand. You look basically for quantity of news more than quality of news. This additional element is relevant for understanding the decision taken concerning the advertisement in French newspapers.
We can compare this candid statement by Saxo Bank CEO with the official reasons presented by the company about their sponsorship strategy. Here are some excerpts:
As a leader in online trading and investment, Saxo Bank has long cherished innovation, integrity and high performance. That is why the Bank supports initiatives in a number of important areas – education and entrepreneurship, arts and literature, as well as sport and health – that celebrate the extraordinary performance of the individual as well as any successful union of human beings in a voluntary, cooperative endeavour. These initiatives enrich the community and develop the innovators of tomorrow.
In this section, you can learn more about the projects, organisations and events that Saxo Bank sponsors, and how they embody Saxo Bank’s core values. By supporting these outstanding initiatives, the Bank enhances its brand and reaches both existing and new clients at home in Denmark, and around the world. Saxo Bank’s sponsorship commitments, like its relationships with clients, are based on trust and the belief that winning comes through working together.
Saxo Bank has a long-standing association with sports and healthful living. The initiatives sponsored in these areas reflect Saxo Bank’s passion for winning and endurance and promote some of its key corporate values, including Independence and Pride.
Like the Riis Cycling team, Saxo Bank is a consistent winner, regularly taking home the industry’s top awards for its online trading platforms. Supporting the world’s best cycling team is a natural choice for Saxo Bank, one that is perfectly in line with its brand and values. The team’s success – achieved through dedication, drive and team spirit – mirrors Saxo Bank’s commitment to providing clients with the best in platforms, products and services.
As a Danish company, Saxo Bank is doubly proud to support Bjarne Riis, who has rightly been called Denmark’s best sports brand.
Sponsoring Team Saxo Bank is based not only on a desire to support the best in sport, it’s also a sound commercial decision. As one of today’s most popular and watched sports, cycling has a huge audience around the world. “The team has the international reach and name recognition that means we will be able to get our message out to most of our client groups around the globe. We love the sport and believe that, together, we will be winners,” said the Bank’s co-founders and CEOs Kim Fournais and Lars Seier Christensen in a joint statement in June 2008.
We find in these corporate statements a combination of interest in increasing brand awareness (last paragraph) with commitment to local stakeholders (supporting a Danish based team) plus a development of some corporate brand values. They mention success and leadership, collaborative efforts, pride and integrity.
Coming back to the interview in El País, there is an indirect reference to Alberto Contador sporting future:
He’ll be back in time for the Vuelta, and he’ll be even more committed than normal to doing a good race. What’s happened has happened, and it’s sad, but that’s the way things are. It’s not the end of the world, we’ve got other good riders.
For me this statement is not clear enough concerning professional and contractual ties between Contador and Saxo Bank. Honestly, I do not know if this means that contract conditions before sentence still hold or not.
And then nothing else, till the strong committed ad was published in leading French newspapers, three days later, by 12 February 2012.
What have we learnt about Saxo Bank views after this quite long journey analysing corporate reaction to the perfectly scheduled reputation crisis?
I do not know what are the conclusions that the reader of this post may reach. I think that it appears clear that they confirm their commitment to financially support cycling Team Saxo Bank (Riis Cycling). As for Alberto Contador, my perception, frankly speaking is that I really do not know for sure what they wanted to do.
I think that our analysis proofs well enough that there is a lot of ambiguity concerning the extent and practical implications of the commitment of Saxo Bank towards Alberto Contador future. When support and sympathy comes, it is always a ‘personal’ view. When the company speaks about Contador, it is always through non official channel or using logos other than Saxo Bank.
Does it mean that Saxo bank communication team was not able to choose the correct wording and have created unwillingly a confusing message? Hey, come on! Saxo Bank counts with a professional communication and marketing team. They cannot make this kind of mistakes.
I am really persuaded that this communication crisis ambiguity has been planned and perfectly executed. In fact media coverage concerning the relationship between Saxo Bank and Alberto Contador show perplexity, because it ranges from a ‘Saxo Bank confirms that contract has ended’ Velo Nation, to ‘Contador can race for Saxo Bank after doping ban’ Business Week
Is this conscious and calculated ambiguity cynical? No, this is communication crisis! The company has the right and the duty to protect and preserve its reputation as far as it is based in sound business practices. There was a strategic decision taken by Saxo Bank: to continue the sponsorship deal with the Danish based cycling team. This posed the main communication management restriction. There was then a doping case from a team member. This convicted athlete is a champion and a leading reference in the sport discipline. He remains as a national hero in Spain, but sanction has been received in general with satisfaction in cycling world outside Spain. Saxo Bank communication team had the impossible task to try to protect all their commercial interests. Clearly supporting banned Contador pushes your brand values into the territory of companies comfortable with cheating practices, and this is probably not a nice value association for a financial corporation. Accusing Alberto Contador of cheater and launching severe press releases showing disappointment and divorce with him would transform Saxo Bank as another one of the declared enemies of Alberto Contador supporters and broad public opinion in Spain. This would kill their current aspirations to develop their business in Spain. Only by using a well calculated and wisely used ambiguity, the company could try to survive to this reputation crisis. And yes, they did it. They surfed the crisis. There were no strong voices coming from any side attacking Saxo Bank views and decisions on this problem. They solved the dilemma by working actively in not solving it. For me this is a 10 out of 10 mark in reputation crisis management.
Is this communication strategy unfair? I do not thing so, as far as they keep really in ambiguous waters. It would be unfair if you are really pushing all people to perceive and believe the opposite thing that you are really telling, as this would be deceit.
All in all Saxo Bank deserves praise for the astonishing initial management of the reputation crisis. But, whatever the degree of ambiguity of the statements made, they all contain promises that create new commitments, even if they are not formally written, on purpose.
This is the context preceding the publication of the aggressive ad. It was published by 12 February 2012, it was designed by the marketing team or an advertising agency the days before. Let’s analize the content of the message, bearing in mind all the information collected.
6. Walking the line. When every single word may potentially induce a crisis
Designing the ad to be published about a script ‘sponsor-doping-banned-still sponsoring’ in newspapers from a country where sanction has been praised and becoming source of mockery is a kind of hard task. Is something like Indiana Jones trying to capture the golden idol hidden in a cavern in the Amazones jungle. You reaches the idol hall, and you know that every step may be your last move if you get distracted and do not step over the secure tile.
There is no place for missteps. If you appear as pure provocative, loving and wanting outcry and outraged reactions, you become a Ryanair CEO histrionic style, and a crying louder marketing brand. This would be in complete contrast with the subtle communication policy followed by Saxo Bank in this crisis. If you present a low profile advertising approach where no clear position is taken, any one of both sides will understand the movement and will remain unsatisfied with Saxo Bank role. This would just reignite the debate about Alberto Contador ban decision, with now the sponsoring brand in between. This is again at odds with the steps taken till now.
And then it came the actual audacious proposal by Saxo Bank.
A way to proceed for assessing the message given is to decompose it. Let’s strip it out into different perception levels: showing, suggesting, telling and explaining.
1. Showing
What is this ad showing ?
The image chosen is what makes impossible to skip away for readers familiar with the case, and creates an immediate need to stop for watching the ad in detail. The image contains three main elements. First, this is an Alberto Contador ‘solo show’. This is also Alberto Contador playing the sport, in a winning moment caption. Secondly, this is a Saxo Bank behind and with Alberto Contador visual story. This image shows that Alberto Contador is with Saxo Bank and that Saxo Bank is with Alberto Contador. Almost all visible Saxo Bank logos are from Alberto Contador sportswear. Third component of the image is ‘After a crisis’ (Après une crise). This is the core statement of this ad, so strong and powerful that becomes an intrinsic part of the image showed to newspapers readers.
2. Suggesting
What does the overall picture and leading written message is suggesting to a majority of people watching this ad? Perception received comes probably from the global impact coming from the image, plus the content of the main message, labelled as follows: ‘Opportunities appear often after a crisis’ (Les opportunités surviennent souvent après une crise). My understanding is that many people collect the following storyline from the visual message:
a. We at Saxo Bank completely acknowledge that Alberto Contador has been caught and sanctioned. Even if it is still unclear if this is cheating or accidental contamination, we know and assume that we have a problem. (Crisis).
b. We are perfectly aware that this crisis is harming our interests as main title sponsor. We are paying a price for something that we are completely innocent (Contador alleged doping happened with Astana, and he was hired by Saxo Bank when the doping case was not disclosed). It is our right, protected by contractual clauses, to stop financially supporting Riis Cycling team, and end our sponsorship story.
c. We have considered all the elements on this complicated issue, and we have come to the conclusion that we should not abandon this Danish based team, as our business commitments are not always driven by pure commercial reasons. We know that we will miss our leading rider this year, and that we won’t be able to run the Tour de France this year. We accept the risk of continuing supporting a team in failure and crisis.
d. Alberto Contador is the world image of our team. Showing our strong support to Alberto Contador as solo visual reference in this ad is the way we had to explain you that we will not abandon our cycling team.
From this suggested story (if you share with me the existence of main points), it emerges another implicit but strong commitment: we are strongly backing Alberto Contador as the franchise reference in our Team Saxo Bank.
Reaction for some readers in France would probably move from an initial movement of anger as considering an ad with banned Contador as a provocation, followed by surprise and attraction to know more about the story after seeing also the main text.
3. Telling
The story of this ad and the effect it creates in people seeing and reading is completed by the reading of the main text included in the ad. This is a second movement that many but not all people do when watching the ad.
As already shown above in this post, full text says:
‘Les opportunités surviennent souvent après une crise. Chez Saxo Bank, nous sommes aux côtés de nos clients dans le succès comme dans les étapes difficiles et c’est aussi vrai pour nos coureurs’
(Opportunities often present themselves in times of crisis. We support clients in their moments of success and also of difficulty, and this is equally valid for our riders).
The financial institution is proposing a surprising and probably unexpected consideration to many readers: many of us have bad times, and sometimes because of our own fault. Once we accept it, how heartwarming is to know and feel that there is still someone behind supporting you.
In the context of the current economic and financial distress, such a message coming from a financial institution is something rarely heard. This message is also more direct for traditional customers of Saxo Bank, as traders using Saxo Bank financial products have had probably uneasy times in these times.
As brand reputation and trust to financial institutions is poor, this message has been seen non credible by some readers. Even in this case, it has probably not been perceived as offensive for being considered cynical. The way the text has been formulated makes that few will feel a strong negative reaction to this ad, and other will experience sentiments of sympathy to the message and to the brand behind the message.
But when going into the detail of the message, it comes the intriguing part of the story.
Full text confirms almost every one of the main suggested items, but not all of them.
It completes the message by explaining that this support after crisis is like the support they want to provide to their clients.
But the missing point is that when explained, it shows that this support to cycling refers to the team riders, but not directly to Alberto Contador future. They are not supporting Contador, but the team.
If our analysis is correct, we conclude that even after this apparently strong and risky campaign supporting Alberto Contador, it does not kill the calculated ambiguity followed by Saxo Bank during this entire reputation and communications crisis.
4. Explaining
Some readers of this post may consider that the author (me) is obsessively focussed in a kind of conspiracy theory.
In order to clarify issues, we count with an additional element for assessing the ad, and it refers to the explanations given to it by their authors.
This explanation of the message was published as a press release by the French branch, Saxo Banque, one day after its publishing. It was given by Pierre Antoine Dusoulier, President of Saxo Bank Western Europe. Quoting some excepts, he says:
« Nous avons été très attristés par cette décision concernant Alberto Contador. Il nous paraissait important de démontrer notre soutien à notre équipe cycliste tout en rappelant que nous sommes aussi aux côtés de nos Clients pour les accompagner face aux aléas des marchés financiers.
La campagne, parue hier dans L’Equipe, a pour objectif de rappeler qu’après les périodes de crise, des opportunités peuvent se présenter sur les marchés financiers, comme dans le sport.
Notre intention a bien sûr été de rebondir de manière positive face à cette situation pour rappeler que Saxo Banque propose une plateforme de trading en ligne destinée aux investisseurs actifs et que nos experts restent aux côtés de nos Clients quelles que soient les situations de marché. »
L’équipe Saxo Bank ne se retirera pas de la compétition et envisage de réintégrer Alberto Contador à l’équipe, une fois sa suspension achevée, le 5 août prochain.
They confirm only and exclusively their support to their cycling team: “It is important for us to show our support to the cycling team”. As for Contador, there is just a “we consider to accept again Alberto Contador into the team after the ban expires”.
So, the official company position shows simply a decided support to the team, and a weak disposition to negotiate hiring Alberto Contador when he is free to ride again: currently, he is out of the team, and he remains out of the team. At this stage, he just deserves ‘personal’ support and sympathy… and the right to use his image to show Saxo Bank commitment to cycling, not towards him.
If this is so, a clear question emerges: Is Alberto Contador being used by Saxo Bank for its commercial purposes as a part of a private deal? Or even worse, if Contador being used and somehow cheated by creating a false image of support?
How has been perceived the ad by readers? How to measure it?
These are important questions, as they provide the mirror of the entire story explained in this post. Up to know, we have provided an analysis of the crisis and how Saxo Bank has reacted to it. Crucial point as always is to assess how stakeholders have reacted to Saxo Bank movement.
Because of our very last considerations, whatever the reaction that the ad has provoked, we feel that Saxo Bank has created a new dilemma, still pending to be solved.
If general reaction is that public opinion dislike this marketing movement as it is seen as a way to support cheaters, Saxo Bank has failed, as it moves from ambiguity area to be rejected by many considering that cycling requires new foundations.
If people don’t trust the message as they do not consider Saxo Bank as a credible ‘I will support you when you need me’ institution, but they are not outraged, they have no gains with the ad, but it has not worsened things.
If people praise this move because they do not consider the ad offensive and it shows an incredible capacity to find opportunities behind problems, or they love to see that Saxo Bank still supports de clean members of the cycling team, this is a perfect and astonishing marketing and branding success.
If people praise and become Saxo Bank lovers because the company is supporting Alberto Contador against all adversities and with an incredible sense of courage, then my guess is that Saxo Bank is again entering back into troubles. And this is because Saxo Bank is not saying that with its ad, in spite that these people thing so. This may be a source of serious trouble, because those people praising Saxo Bank now can be extremely disappointed if facts do not follow according their interpretation of the advertising campaign.
So, let’s check reactions.
7. Impact, reactions
The analysis of media reaction will show us how this audacious marketing movement has been understood.
The main variable of analysis chosen here is content analysis of the title of the news chosen by the media. It provides the basic information concerning the editorial position (positive-neutral-negative) of the journalist. This newspaper choice is highly influential, as it provides to the readers a key of interpretation of the news content. The influence of titles of news increases nowadays with social media, as this is the only content that will appear in messages by Twitter users publishing the news in their account. A similar thing happens with Facebook personal pages.
First we check reactions in French newspapers. This is the country where the ad has been published and France is the most sensitive public opposed to Alberto Contador practices. We should expect here the most severe media reviewers towards this marketing movement.
Contador – dopage: Une étonnante pub Saxo Bank dans L’Equipe ! (Contador – Doping: An astonishing ad by Saxo Bank in L’Equipe)
Newspapers in France show basically surprise at this unexpected movement. They consider that Saxo Bank has taken an opportunity in this affaire in a smart way. Checking the content of news published by 12 Febraury, before the note by Saxo Banque France was released we find that journalists understand that Saxo Bank is giving unconditional support to Alberto Contador:
… Saxo Bank n’est pas pour autant rancunier avec «El Pistolero» et lui apporte même un soutien inconditionnel. (Saxo Bank does not show rancorous to ‘El Pistolero’ and backs him unconditionally)
20 Minutes
… L’occasion, pour Saxo Bank, de soutenir son champion, malgré sa suspension pour dopage. (This ad is the opportunity for Saxo Bank to show support to its champion, in spite of doping ban
Sportune.fr
In the opposite camp, Club Velo 101 finds that Saxo Bank is using Alberto Contador scandal to gain additional notoriety.
The other news use the official interpretation provided by Pierre Antoine Dusoulier. They comment mainly the audacity showed by Saxo bank, but they do not refer to support to Alberto Contador.
Reaction in France media can be considered globally positive for Saxo Bank interests, as the ad is viewed rather aggressive and innovative, but not provocative or outrageous. First obstacle overcome. But we do not forget that even in France this ad has been by some as an explicit and unconditional support to Alberto Contador.
As for reactions in news providers published in English, we count with two examples of specialised newspapers in cycling. Here the news titles:
Again, both articles praise the marketing movement and interpret it as a strong support to Contador. See for instance an excerpt from Road Cycling article:
(…) Stating the obvious, times are tough for many people. Yesterday I was reading that in Southern California 44% of homeowners are “underwater” – owing more on their house than what its actual value is. Towns have been ravaged by foreclosures. And it’s just not here in the U.S. As a result people look at the banks as the enemy just waiting for the moment to screw them over and toss them out of their home.
Instead, Saxo Bank places this warm and fuzzy ad that’s basically saying, “Hey, we all know no one’s perfect and we all make mistakes. But guess what? We’re still here for you.” Wow, whoever created that campaign was a genius. So now we have this image of a faceless corporate entity that isn’t quite so callous and only interested in the bottom line. They care about people and are willing to stick with them through thick and thin.
Road Cycling
Finally, we look at Spanish media reaction to Saxo bank ad.
Saxo Bank apoya a Contador a través de un anuncio (Saxo Bank supports Contador with an ad)
Again, media understand the ad using Alberto Contador image as a strong commitment from sponsor Saxo Bank towards him. The financial entity is praised for taking this courageous decision.
As an illustration, we show the analysis of the 26 comments by readers of El Mundo article about Saxo Bank ad. In 35% comments there is an explicit praise to Saxo Bank for supporting Alberto Contador so openly and courageously. In total, 88% of all comments show direct or indirect support to Contador, while some 12% consider that WADA and TAS did the correct job by convicting Contador for doping.
In our view, basically all newspapers that have reacted to Saxo Bank ad consider it not as a simply proof of support towards the team, but more explicitly to Alberto Contador. As we have shown before, even if this message is clearly suggested by the marketing strategy followed, it does not correspond to the official explanation given by the company representatives.
8. How to assess the impact of Saxo Bank ad?
In a sense, it may be judged as an astonishing success, in line with the audacity of the people in charge with this decision. There are almost no negative reactions against Saxo Bank in the media we have checked. There are many times signs of surprise, but they do not turn into declared indignation.
Saxo Bank collects an immense success among readers that have understood and liked the message that was really portrayed by the financial institution: we will not abandon the team, even or because it is facing tough times. This is a perfect score in this case, because readers view in a positive way what Saxo Bank is doing in sponsorship in the midst of a crisis. They love the movement made by Saxo Bank and understand the proposal in the same way as designed by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank increases brand value among these people, and takes advantage positively from a crisis that many could predict that it carried only bad things for the company.
Saxo Bank ad has also produced a very positive response among Alberto Contador followers who consider him a clean rider who has received an unjust sanction. They salute the support shown by Saxo Bank by using Alberto Contador image showing support to cycling, and doing this not in Spain but in France, main focus of attacks to Contador. Saxo Bank could obtain also notable profits from this improvement of brand perception among Spanish aficionados. Remember that one of the reasons presented by Saxo Bank CEO to enter into cycling sponsorship was to increase visibility and expand business activities in Spain and Latin America.
The positive impact of this ad in Spain could be viewed as a first sight as an extraordinary opportunity for increasing the presence of Saxo Bank in Spain. We fear that the expectations created will be by contrast a source of notorious problems for Saxo Bank in the near future. If our analysis was correct, this ad pretended to show support to the cycling team, but not to Alberto Contador, who continues to be expelled from the team. Saxo Bank has created a false image of support to Contador, which opens the room for immense disappointment if future facts do not follow current expectations. Saxo Bank will have soon the opportunity to show practical support to Contador, for instance concerning the payment of the fines associated to the conviction of doping. If they do not support financially Contador, the rider can show publicly his distress. Also, currently there are few probabilities that Contador will renew with Saxo Bank after ban expires, as this team risks to be not accepted in Tour de France 2013, which is the major sportive aspiration for Contador. All in all, we feel that this positive reaction among Spanish people concerning Saxo Bank ad is based in a misleading message, and this short term victory will be a source of problems in the near future.
9. Another similar case that went wrong
Even if we can consider Saxo Bank as an innovative reaction to a sponsorship crisis, there exist some other remarkable examples.
Tiger Woods experienced a phenomenal reputation crisis provoked by the disclosure of repeated marital infidelities. Some leading sponsors terminated abruptly the contracts once the golfer admitted misbehavior, like Accenture, General Motors, AT&T and Gatorade. In the other side, Nike and Electronic Arts continued sponsorship.
Nike took and step further, as they created a specific commercial directly related with the marital crisis, in a sense in a very similar way as Saxo Bank has done with Contador. This was a voice recording of passed away Wood’s father Earl. As Nike labelled the official video ‘Earl asks his son Tiger a few questions before Tiger’s return to golf’. Such a message was a controversial ad by design, as every one could expect vividly reactions for and against the use and interpretation of this message for commercial purposes. Even if this marketing decision is extremely risky, some could expect that being perceived as controversial didn’t necessarily drive to provocation and outrage. In a sense, they were proposing an ad approach like Benetton. Being a risky and audacious company proposing uneasy ad messages could fit with the brand perception looked for by Nike branding department.
This is the ad.
Video went viral quickly and reached 3 million views in a matter of few days.
You can watch here a first reaction analysis by ad expert, Barbara Lippert from AdWeek. Marketing decision is labelled as controversial, emotional, powerful, cynical, polarizing.
But that time audacity did not pay. It eventually became an awful story for Nike interests. If this video was upload by Nike Golf by 6 April 2010, media commented, less that two week after, that this video provoked a shock to Elin Nordegren. Tiger Wood’s wife ‘Elin was violently angry over this commercial and thought it was a cheesy thing to do’ (ABC News, 14 April 2010). Sources commented that the way Woods was managing the family crisis by using sponsors pushed her to fill for divorce. The couple officially divorced on 23 August 2010. Of course, this adverse reaction was one of the possible outcomes of the ad, but the one Nike did not want to provoke at all, also considering their own brand interests.
The final impact of this risky ad finally punished Nike brand. This Youtube video has received a share of 47% negative votes. Users comments show also that many viewers dislike what Nike made, or laugh about the combination Tiger Woods – Nike (‘Just do it’). It has also been the source of various spoofs and parodies.
The story is that taking risky marketing decisions is risky. Sometimes it pays (Saxo Bank), but normally it turns wrong (Nike).
What I learned from this crisis
1. If you are not the source of the crisis, hide your brand
To my view, Saxo Bank mastered the tricky process of being always present during the different stages of the crisis before and after sanction to Alberto Contador, while preventing to become one of the active protagonists of the story. Playing a secondary role in a crisis is allowed if you are not one of the parts directly being at the source of the crisis. Saxo Bank suffered from this doping conviction, but it was not responsible of it at all, as the doping case emerged when Alberto Contador was part of team Astana, and he was hired by Saxo Bank Team when this case was not made public. If you are one of the potential victims in a controversial crisis, the best place is to take a secondary role but defending your own interests. Saxo Bank brilliantly managed to be present and show their position during the different stages of the communication crisis, while being able to limit brand exposure by designing a mechanism of informal channels of communication and bypass press releases.
2. Timing
Controlling the correct timing is one of the key factors in managing a communications crisis. My perception is again that Saxo Bank did an excellent job concerning time management of their audacious irruption in the crisis with the ad. It was published by Sunday 12 February 2012, almost one week after the sentence was made public. The right aftermath of a crisis is crucial, and many communication crisis experts ask for a quick initial reaction. We have shown that in this case, the best thing for Saxo Bank interests was to choose a low profile strategy during the first hours and days after Contador was convicted. Initial reaction in a controversial case like this one implied an explosion of comments and reactions for and against CAS decision. Showing the aggressive ad in the midst of the initial period of bold reaction by both camps would probably be considered as provocative and intolerable by one of the parties. When the initial media fever decreased a new story emerged with the original Saxo Bank ad. Launching it one week after the sentence was announced allowed people interested in Contador case to listen to its content with less noisy debates around, but still with capturing the interest of an ongoing crisis.
3. In a controversy, don’t choose a camp… if you can
2 years ban to Alberto Contador for doping substances creates controversy because of the allegations presented by Alberto Contador’s legal team. Defending team argue that clenbuterol was there not because cheating and doping practices, but because of an accidental consumption of contaminated meat. CAS does not identify the cause of the presence of clenbuterol in Contador’s blood. This decision open the door for strong opposition to this ban from Contador’s followers convinced of his innocence, paired by the certainty by many others that clenbuterol revealed that Contador is guilty of doping practices. In this framework, Saxo Bank was confronted to a perfect dilemma, as whatever decision they took would generate dissatisfaction. Saxo Bank was actually able to find the perfect solution with their ‘Opportunities often appear after a crisis’
4. In a crisis, if you suggest something, you create new commitments
Saxo Bank took the decision to maintain sponsorship ties with the cycling team. Then they took the decision to show this commitment publicly by announcing it in ads in French newspapers. The third decision Saxo Bank took was to increase the visibility and reaction to this decision by choosing a photo of Alberto Contador as means to channel the message. Choosing banned Contador was not an obliged step and was not the expected one. If Saxo Bank wanted just to show support to Riis Cycling team riders, they had the much easier option to show more anonymous riders showing clearly Saxo Bank logo. Even if the text explains that Saxo Bank support goes to team riders and not to Alberto Contador, the use of the image of Contador is suggesting to a vast majority of readers a support to both team and Contador. And this creates a new commitment to Saxo Bank managers that was not active anymore after the Spanish cyclist was found guilty of doping substances use. In normal times it can be argued that they are not responsible for what people understand from their ad or statements, but for what they explicitly declare and assume. But a communication crisis is not a business as usual. The intensity of the flow of news, media attention and public opinion attention makes that every move made by the affected company has consequences beyond rights and duties. We consider that Saxo Bank has assumed some responsibilities towards Alberto Contador by using his image in the ad showing support to the cycling team. In terms of corporate reputation preservation, they are somehow obliged to act in consequence in the near future, if they do not want to lose much of the brand equity gained during this crisis.
5. Reputation crisis does not always mean reputation loss
Related posts in our blog
You can check below some other examples of our analysis about sport and sponsorship crisis, corporate reputation crisis or communication crisis.
FIFA, the International Federation of Association Football is currently facing a major reputation crisis.
FIFA top representatives have been accused of bribery and favours in order to influence the decision on the FIFA Football World Cup bids for 2018 and 2022, finally awarded to Russia and Qatar.
The case is receiving massive media attention, as the case is formally open in the british Parliament. The impact of the events are magnified as the accusations are colluding with the Presidential elections process. Today, June 1st is the election day. There is only one candidate, Joseph Blatter, asking for reelection. A second candidate, Bin Hamman from Qatar renounce last week. There are current allegations against Bin Hamman for bribery in the bid process. Joseph Blatter was included in the FIFA internal list of investigated persons for a couple of days.
Joseph Blatter aknowledged that the current crisis is ternishing FIFA image and reputation, but that he considers that the best way to react is to solve the problems inside the “family of football”. Consequently, Blatter discards a dimission or renouncing to reelection.
Officials from Adidas and Coca-Cola, showed in a formal statement their concerns about the current situation, as they are main sponsors of FIFA World Cup.
In this post we check to which extent the current crisis is really damaging FIFA image and reputation.
Reputation profile of news about the bribery case
The first piece of the analysis is to measure the profile of news directly related to the bribrey case. As in precedent posts, we base our analysis in the “diamond reputation vectors” analysis, using news content analysis from newspapers in English.
We show the results concerning the negative reputation vectors. In order to see the impact of the case, we compare reputation profile of news by 14 may with news up to 31 May.
Results are clear: all news about the FIFA bribery case are strongly associated to “Scandal” vector and also, but to a minor extent, to “Tragedy”. The “Scandal” vector components more sensitive to the FIFA case are corruption, scandal, embarrassing, mistake and harm.
Our results show also that media coverage about the case has evolved in tome to a much more severe judgement. Mid-May coverage referred mainly to allegation by Triesman, the English FA representative that he was approached by FIFA executive members during the bidding process asking for financial compensations. Current media coverage of the case expands to allegations against top officials, and revelations about e-mail communications by FIFA vice-president implicitly aknowledging irregularities in Qatar bidding process.
We include the analysis of the reputation vector “Respected, Coherent”. As explained in other posts, this vector is sensitive to news with values and ethical issues, both in a positive and in a negative way.
We find that the FIFA bribery case is also seen as a ethics-related issue. We find increasing and high degree of association with components trust, coherent, ethical, fairness and respected.
All these results show us clearly that media is really perceiveing the bribrey case as a serious issue with substantial reputational implications for FIFA perception.
The impact of the bribery case in FIFA reputation
We have analyzed the media profile of news directly related to the bribery case. It is perceived as a highly negative event.
The next questions that we need to address is to check to which extent the news about the bribery case is actually damaging FIFA reputation. This is the crucial issue in order to fix the actual size and risk of any reputation crisis. We have conducted similar analysis in this post in order to test how singular events affect global firm reputation, in cases like AFLAC jokes about Japaneses tsunami, the impact of Royal Wedding parody video on T-Mobile or the impact of UEFA sanctions to Mourinho on Real Madrid image.
The first step required to measure the impact of the bribrey case on FIFA media reputation is to show FIFA media reputation in “normal times”. We count with this information, as we monitored the impact of the FIFA 2010 World Cup in South Africa in terms of media coverage and media reputation. Results about media reputation for country brand Spain or players’ reputation and impact on sponsorship like David Villa case are presented in our Report about Media Impact and Reputation of FIFA World Cup 2010 (in Spanish).
Brand Spain (p 3 to 39); Brand David Villa (p. 68 to 105); Brand FIFA and Sponsors (p. 106 to 121)
We show in the next figures the degree of association of brand “FIFA” to negative image vectors, during 2010. We show two measures: first one refers to media treatment during the first half of year 2010; the secong one shows values for July-December 2010. First half year measures reflect more the intrinsic media reputation of FIFA, while secong half of the year measures reflect the impact of the football competition.
The degree of association of FIFA to vectors “Scandal” and “Tragedy” are relatively mild, and are absically unaffected by the football competition. There is no specific vector component highly associated strongly to FIFA.
FIFA business model is largely based in the selling of TV rights but also because it attracts multimillion sponsoring deals. Sponsoring firms look for partners ensuring massive media coverage linked to events distilling positive media reputation and no negative media reputation. We have shown that in normal times FIFA is not linked to negative reputation values. We show below that our results confirm that FIFA is an excellent sponsoring partner, as it is highly associated to positive image vectors. We select a couple of them as example: “Spectacular” and “Impressive”.
Our results show that in normal times (pre World Cup media coverage) FIFA is quite positively related to vectors “Spectacular” and “Impressive”. And this positive relationship dramatically increases as a result of the sport competition (post WC measures), where the massive media coverage is concentrated. So, FIFA is a perfect companion for sponsoring brands presenting an emotional-oriented brand profile.
With all these results, we can already show the impact of the current reputation crisis in the overall reputation quality of the brand “FIFA.
We show first how the association of FIFA to “Scandal” and “Tragedy” has been affected at the initial stage of the bribery scandal media explosion with Triesman allegations, a couple of weeks ago.
Our findings show a substantial increase of negative media perception. Concerning “Scandal”, the vector components more sensitive have been scandal, mistake, harm and corruption. Those from vector “Tragedy” are harm, tragedy and failure.
We show now the current situation, with news about FIFA up to May 31, one day before the expected reelection of President and candidate Joseph Blatter for a fourth term.
We compare present media reputation values to those two weeks ago, and against 2010 values.
We find an additional massive increse of association to negative reputation values, compared to both 2010 and mid May situation. Association to “Scandal” increases in all vector components, and it is more pronounced with components scandalous, embarrassing, worrying, mistake and harm.
Association to “Tragedy” also increases, but to a minor path. It increases more on horrible, worst and harm.
We add the results concerning the vector “Coherent, Respected”. As explained befeore, if it increases, it means that the news are also considering ethical issues.
Results show a notable increase of association to components trust, ethical, fairness, respected.
Our conclusion is direct: the impact of the bribery case has a devastaging reputational impact on the quality of brand FIFA. Please remember that in last figures we are not showing just news related to the bribery case, but we show instead ALL news about FIFA.
Present crisis harms FIFA by increasing its association to “Scandal” and “Tragedy”, but also because it reduces dramatically the association with positive reputation vectors. We show below the example of the vector “Impressive”. Results are self speaking.
Is Sepp Blatter The Solution, or The Problem?
Yesterday Sepp Blatter was reelected as President of FIFA, serving in his fourth term. He got some 90% of the votes of FIFA representatives.
Blatter assumes the mission to solve the problems FIFA is facing: ” ‘Together we can tackle the problems that football faces today and show that our game remains very solid and strong’. The FIFA President spoke about the need for transparency and “zero tolerance” in the fight against the dangers that threaten football” (FIFA Press Release, June 1 2011).
Right now, Sepp Blatter image and credibility in the media is directly linked by the media by the ongoing bribery case.
We have shown in this post that the news about the bribery case have completely contaminated all FIFA news, and both present the same profile in terms of negative media reputation.
With this results, it is not surprising to find using our technique that actual news about Sepp Blatter show a tarnished image, similar to FIFA profile, and FIFA bribery news profile.
In the following figures we shoe how the current crisis has completely modified the media perception about Sepp Blatter. We show the reputation profile of news about Sepp Blatter by September 2010, in the aftermath of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, and we compare it with his profile by the end of may, just before his reelection.
As in the precedent cases, we find a dramatical increase of the association to “Scandal” and “Tragedy” right now on news about Blatter. His media reputation in “normal times” was not linked to these reputation vectors a year ago.
Joseph Blatter profile is now also strongly linked to “Respected, Coherent” vector, as the current crisis is linked to ethics.
We show finally the example of how the crisis does affect positive reputation vectors. We have choosen “Excellence”. Sepp Blatter loses the association to this reputation vector that he has one year ago.
How serious and damaging is the present association of Sepp Blatter to “Scandal”?
Media Profile: Sepp Blatter Vs Bernie Madoff
Thanks to our technique and to our database we can provide elements of answer that we consider relevant and useful. We can compare his media profile to the media profile of other past cases of scandals. The readers and analysis can judge if the personages can be compared or not, but what we provide is the results concerning how media portray the different cases and people.
The case we propose is Bernie Madoff media reputation to be compared to Sepp Blatter.
Madoff’s case is probably an epitome of a investiment fraud and financial scandal. We check how media is covering right now news about Sepp Blatter in comparison with news about Bernie Madoff.
We show Madoff’s media reputation profile on news by mid 2010 and at the beginning of 2011.
Critical reputation vector in this crisis is “Scandal”. Our results show that both Blatter and Madoff are strongly associated to scandal. Madoff is more associated to components scandalous and worrying. But news about Blatter are even more related to “Scandal” than Madoff in components like corruption, harm, mistake and embarrassing. The results show probably impact the institutional implications of the bribery case.
Concerning “Tragedy”, both people share a very similar profile. Blatter negative reputation is stronger concerning harm and tragedy.
The vector “Coherent, Respected” linked to ethical issues show also that Madoff and Blatter share a similar media profile. Madoff profile is somehow instable between 2010 and 2011. Blatter profile is stronger associated to trust, ethical and fairness.
All our empirical evidence tend to the same conclusions: the bribery case linked to the 2018 and 2022 bidding process is an extraordinarily serious reputation crisis, at least as how international media is covering it. This crisis is not isolated to people directly affected by the corruption allegations, but it has completely flooded the reputation of FIFA as institution, and its President Joseph Blatter.
This is really problematic, as there are risks that the brands FIFA and Sepp Blatte remain contaminated by the scandal and their media reputation is permanently associated to “Scandal” (as brand Madoff is). This scenario would certainly mean a withdrawal of present FIFA main sponsors, as all of them are leading brands where brand equity is essentila to their business (Adidas, Coca-Cola, Visa, Fly Emirates). Of course, sponsorship income would not disappear, as FIFA football competitions produce extraordinary media impact attractive to firms. But probably new sponsoring firms would be low quality brands looking for media exposure more than a co-branding alliance, like is currently happening with cycling competitions.
Crisis management recommentations are clear: reputation problems will remain as far as only compromise disciplinary measures are taken. Exemplary sanctions and the assumption of political responsibilities are needed. These are the initial steps to allow media to speak about other things than corruption when covering FIFA news.
These measures will not be enough probably in order to move present FIFA media reputation no normal pre-crisis waters. Only a structural reform-reborn of FIFA will ensure that media considers FIFA under new perspectives.
Right now, FIFA and Sepp Blatter share exactly the same negative media reputation. If radical reforms are undertaken by FIFA, we will see in the near future if President Blatter is part of the problem or the solution: in the next months we will monitor and compare media reputation of both FIFA and its President. Techniques developped by MRI Universidad de Navarra will tell us in which direction this reputation crisis is evolving.