Movimiento 15-M, Democracia Real Ya: Perception by Local Newspapers El Mundo, El País, Intereconomía, Público

In the precedent post we showed our first analysis about the phenomenon Democracia Real Ya as viewed by international media. We mentioned that this unprecedented initiative in Spain and the extent of its impact is taking also local media by surprise, and makes them difficult to explain and judge it.

We capture in this post how some reference newspapers in Spain are covering the events linked to Movimiento 15-M. We use as usual the media perception diamonds analysis. We analyze four newspapers with national coverage. According to ideological position we have chosen Intereconomía (with La Gaceta newspaper) as representative for right wing newspaper, El Mundo as center-rigth, El País as center-left and Público as left wing oriented newspaper. We use as term of comparison the global perception distilled from all Spanish newspapers in average.

We have performed in this blog some other analysis by focussing our attention on how specific newspapers cover crisis events. Examples are the coverage made by New York Times and Wall Street Journal to the japanese nuclear crisis, or international mentions received by Le Monde with revelations by Wikileaks origin. Another example is the analysis of media coverage of Bin Laden’s killing by Pakistan newspapers in compariron to international media coverage.

We show first results concerning the association to brand vector “Coherent, Respected”. As shown in precedent post, a high degree of association indicates that media consider that values and ethical issues are at stake. We found that new coverage about Tahrir Square revolt in Egypt was extremely highly related to “Coherent, Respected”.

Results show that Intereconomía (right) shows the lowest level of association. El Mundo (center-right) shows relative high degree of association only with component respected. Left oriented newspapers are more sensitive to this brand vector, but in complementary ways. El País (center-left) is more oriented to components compassion, trust, coherent, and happiness, while Público (left) is focused in components ethical, fairness.

The results show thus that newspapers are taking different positions and showing different perceptions of the event based in editorial positions.

Second brand vector is “Scandal”. Again the newspaper most sentitive to the impact of the civic phenomenon is Público. This newspaper is the one that associates the more 15-M movement with components corruption, mistake and scandal. Our undertanding is that Público is not attacking the movement itself, but that they rely much more than the other media to political and economic problems in Spain. El Mundo and Intereconomía insist in the component awful, reflecting probably the fears of becoming an uncontrolled movement.

All journals follow a similar treatment concerning brand vector “Tragedy”, also basically in line with global percpetion by all Spanish newspapers. Público insists more than others in  component harm.

Other posts

Protests in Spain. Media Coverage comparison with Tahrir Square Egypt Revolution

Strauss-Kahn Arrest (2). Impact on IMF Reputation. Comparison with World Bank, United Nations and Other International Organizations

In the precedent post about media coverage of Dominique Strauss-Kahn assault and arrest we showed the profile of initial media reaction. We found out a strong association of both Strauss-Kahn and IMF to negative brand reputations vectors, in terms of “Scandal” and “Tragedy”.

We show here the specific contribution of Strauss-Kahn current scandal to IMF negative reputation. We check the media perception of news in English about IMF during May 2011. We monitor the content of some 8,000 diferent news articles about IMF. We compare it will news about IMF, but excluding all that mention its managing director, Strauss-Kahn.

The differences between both variables will show us the negative impact of the personal scandal in the media reputation of the institution, and its evolution in time.

Results reflect the impact of Strauss-Kahn in IMF reputation. At this point, the impact is not only linked to the assault scandal, as we cover news from the beginning of May 2011. They reflect also the impact of Strauss-Kahn presence and leadership in the ongoing crisis where IFM is intervening and attracting media coverage: Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Ivory Coast interventions.

The results concerning vector “Scandal” show that Strauss-Kahn is harming IFM reputation concerning the vector components scandal, embarrassing and harm. In the other side, news without DSK are more associated to worrying, which reflect the economic and financial crisis tasks where IMF is involved.

As for the vector “Tragedy”, we find that the presence of Strauss-Kahn in IMF news is increasing the association of IMF to components tragedy and horrible.

Coming days will show us to which extent the individual scandal is tarnishing IFM reputation in the vector components idetifyed in the graph. The longer the police and judicial case it takes, the more it will affect negatively to the institutional reputation. pleading not guilty will represent a problem for IMF.

Our results show that IMF news related to Strauss-Kahn increase the association to negative reputation. But the impact is right now just marginal. To which extent the intrinsic media reputation of IMF is positive or negative? Reputation crisis are critical to companies and organizations with excellent reputation and where reputation is a key intangible asset ascompetitive tool. Reputation is a key issue for international organizations.

We can provide some elements of answer concerning IFM media reputation. As always, the answer is a  matter of comparison.

IMF media reputation compared to other international organizations

By comparison to the reputation of other brands showed in precedent posts in this blog, we can observe a relative high degree of association of IMF to vectors “Scandal” and “Tragedy”. Is this a common feature of international organizations dealing with economic and financial problems?

In order to answer this question, we shoe the comparative media percpetion of some international organizations concerning these negative reputation vectors, and we pick also some selected positive brand vectors as example.

We compare first IMF to other international organization also dealing directly to economic and financial issues. First case is World Bank.

 

Our results indicate that World Bank presents a slighly better reputation in terms of “Excellence”

As for negative reputation, we find that IFM presents a worse reputation, both concerning association to “Scandal” and “Tragedy”.

Second international organization tested is World Trade Organization (WTO).

 

Very similar results, like World Bank: WTO presents a lower degree of association to “Scandal” and “Tragedy” in terms of international media reputation.

We complete the analysis of IFM reputation by comparison with other international organizations showing the example of another four international organizations in the United Nations family delivering specific services not primarily linked to financial or commercial issues.

 

First we compare IMF to UNDP and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) media reputation. As example of positive brand vector we have chosen “Leadership, Commitment”. We find that UNDP presents a much better mark than IMF in terms of relationship to commitment values in all areas. FAO is better perceived than IMF in some vector components like awareness, inspiring and recognition.

Concerning negative reputation brand vectors we find that IMF is doing worse than FAO and UNDP in some components like scandal, mistake and corruption linked to vector “Scandal”. As for the vector “Tragedy”, IMF related news are again more associated to this vector than FAO and UNDP, except for component awful and harm, which is equivalent to all.

Now we compare IMF reputation to UNICEF and World Health Organization (WHO)

Association to positive brand value “Leadership, Commitment” is substantially higher for Unicef than for IMF. WHO presents an even poor result than IMF.

Negative reputation vector “Scandal” is once again more prominent with IMF than with the other international organizations UNICEF and WHO. IMF presents a poor profile especially in terms of scandal, worrying, mistake and corruption.

For the vector “Tragedy”, we find that negative reputation is higher for IMF when referring to failure and worst. Unicef is more associated than others to harm and tragedy. WHO, is more associated to awful.

Deriving a comment and conclusion from an overall analysis of all results presented in this post, we consider that International Monetary Found loses the media reputation battle against all other international organizations. It presents lower degree of association than others to positive brand values like Commitment, Leadership or Excellence. And it is much more associated to negative reputation vectors “Scandal” and “Tragedy” than almost all other international organizations. Remember that this negative reputation should not be assigned to Strauss-Kahn current scandal, as we are performing this analysis with news about IMF where there is no mention at all to its Managing Director.

This post raises a logical additional question: This current negative media reputation of IMF is due to misconduct and poor institutional peformance by IMF? Or this bad perception is mainly driven by the events and issues that IMF has to deal with, that deserve a critical media attention by themselves?

We will study this crucial question for reputation management and crisis management in a future post.

Other posts:

The Reputational Curse of Political Sex Scandals: The Impact of Schwarzenegger and Strauss-Kahn Scandals on Bill Clinton (and Monica Lewinsky) Reputation

Strauss-Kahn Assault Allegations (1). Initial Media Perception and Reputation Impact

AFLAC Media Reputation: Impact of Jokes About Tsunami in Japan

Risky Business: When T-Mobile Dances with the Royal Wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton

Companies Reputation and Wikileaks: Bank of America Case

Mourinho Reputation. The Impact of UEFA Disciplinary Case in Real Madrid Image

Bin Laden Killing News Storyline 1. Pakistan Media Coverage versus International Media (Ex USA)

Bin Laden Killing News Storyline 1. Pakistan Media Coverage versus International Media (Ex USA)

We showed a couple of posts some few hours after that Bin Laden’s killing was known. Ten days after, we have accumulated information about media coverage of this issue. As the event has produced a massive global media attention, we can cover the analysis of Bin Laden media impact under several perspectives.

Like the analysis of media impact and media perception of Wikileaks revelations, we are aware that we are dealing with highly sensitive issues. Like we did in all Wikileaks related posts and in general in all posts in this blog, our intention is not to judge and present our position about each issue analyzed. We understand that this is not relevant and probably not interesting for the readers of this blog.

Our aim and basic goal is to show the information and knowledge available to all, as it is based in published news, but hidden to almost all of us, as we show underlying trends and patterns based in treatment and content analysis of many press articles.

We hope that this information is useful and sometimes relevant for professional and scholars and issue-conscious readers. These readers can extract interpretations and assessments of the events that we just describe.

In this post we start the news storyline analysis of Bin Laden’s killing showng results concerning media coverage given by newspapers in Pakistan.In order to get visibility of the results, we compare Pakistan newspapers storyline against global storyline with news written in countries all over the world, excepting news published by US media.

You can find information about how these measures are obtained and can be read in the methodology section of this blog. Storyline is profiled by the relative presence of each one of the discourse components in all news analyzed. Comparative analysis between different countries or regions allows us to identify commonalities and specificities of the discourse storyline, in this case, Pakistan newspapers treatment of Bin Laden killing and implications.

We already did a Pakistan newspapers analysis related to coverage of Wikileaks news.

First figure refers to news mentions to the action of killing Bin Laden and the way it was conducted. In Pakistan is seen as an illegal killing, in contrast with international media, that refer to it as legitimate killling in a wider extent. Media in Pakistan judge the action more profusely than international media as being inmoral, unfair and treasonous. Controversial emerges in a similar proportion than international media.

Second figure shows storyline components that are mainly used to refer to Bin Laden profiling. In general, international media refer in a higher extent than Pakistan to all these descriptions. Wider differences appear in negative terms associated to Bin Laden. “Hatred”, “Radical” or reference comparisons to “Hitler” are much more used in international media than in Pakistan articles. Eventual positive references to Bin Laden role like martyr or hero are again more present in international media, but now the gap with Pakistan use is smaller. Other positive terms like “legend” “rebel” or “freedom fighter” are more present in Pakistan than international media. But these terms are marginally used (media impact value of 0.2-0,4) in comparison with other already mentioned (martyre reached value over 3 media impat points).

The following piece of analysis refers to references about reactions to the anouncement of Bin Laden’s death. We observe a clear separate media treatment. Newspapers in Pakistan reflect in a wider extent reactions of protest: “protesters”, “activists” and also “prayers”. They cover in a substantial lower degree reactions by crowds of satisfaction like “jubilation”, “joy” or “euphoria”, or even references to “crowds”. Interestingly enough, references to “dilemma” are substiantially higher among Pakistan newspapers.

Next two figures show some storyline components related with international politics, diplomacy and implications of the terrorist killing.

Main linkage is to Afghanistan war and the taliban. These references reache media impact values of some 12 points. References to taliban are higher in Pakistan newspapers.

The following reference terms of the discourse are George Bush, the US President that suffered the Septemeber 11 attack under his Presidency. It is not surprising to find that references to “War on Terror” follow in terms of media prevalence. References are higher in Pakistan.

As for individual personalities and politicians, it is interesting to find that international media provide more media coverage to John Brennan, the Director of the Counterterrorism Center, than to Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State.

When relating the killing with other countries in relation with Bin Laden, terrorism or US foreign policy we find than main reference is Saudi Arabia, which is specially followed by Pakistan media. Palestine and Israel conflict come next, but Pakistan news do not pay much attention to this conexion. Also, linkages with Saddam Hussein are mainly established in international media.

In coherence with the importance given by Pakistan media to “dilemma”, we find also that they insist more than international media to “diplomacy” implications of the killing of Bin Laden in Pakistan territory.

New York Times and Wall Street Journal Coverage of Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Crisis (I)

We continue our analysis of the initial media storyline of Japan earthquake and tsunami, and the related Fukushima nuclear crisis. In a previous post we have shown how the Fukushima crisis is portrayed by media from United States, United Kingdom, Australia and India. National results are elaborated by the sum of the contributions of all local newspapers.

If an event receives a relevant and sustained media impact, content storyline analysis can also be performen for singular newspapers. For instance, in precedent research projects we have measured how top US newspapers by circulation were following Republican and Democrat candidates, and to which extent they presented bias in terms of total media coverage. As the current media attention to Japan disasters is global and massive, we can study the specific behaviour of any particular newspaper.

We have chosen in this blog to show the storyline profile of two leading and influential American newspapers: The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. As these two newspapers are new content generators, they become content providers for other newspapers when cited by. As WJS is a business oriented journal, we expect to find a specific focus on the economic consequences of the earthquake and the tsunami concerning local and international companies, and this should be reflected in the storyline. Those effect are of main importance for Japan’s economy and business, but less relevant for the global economy.

But in contrast with all other big natural disasters, Tohoku earthquake captures media attention with a clear local interests interpellation, as the Fukushima nuclear crisis may seriously open the debate about the future of nuclear energy use. United States uses profusely nuclear power. According to Gallup, in year 2010, 62% of respondents were favorable to nuclear power use for generating electricity, and 33% were opposed. Approval rates are partisan: using 2009 data it appears that 71% Republicans approve nuclear energy, while the approval rate for Democrats drops to 52%. Approval rates right now are respectively 62% and 32%. As it could be expected, approval rating are falling substantially in the context of the Japanese nuclear crisis: 39% of all respondents feel a lot more concerned about a nuclear disaster occurring in the United States after events in Japan, and an additional 31% are a little more concerned.

As many people consider NYT more liberal than WSJ, or WSJ more conservative than NYT, we want to check using our approach to which extent we find a different storyline profile about Fukushima nuclear crisis between these two leading newspapers. We will compare their behaviour to the storyline resulting from all newspapers from United States in our sample.

The analysis of this post is based in the content analysis of more than 200 different articles published by NYT and some 1,300 by WSJ directly related to Japan earthquake. Even if the range of the sample is wide enough, caution is required concerning the interpretation of individual results. When the media impact of an specific storyline component of NYT or WSJ is bigger than 1.0 points, we consider that results are quite reliable, as reflect an important amount of prevalence in different news. For issues obtaining lower scores as they are less frequently in the news, individual results are not directly reliable. In this case we consider that the relevant information appears if all single storyline components pertaining to similar issues behave following a common trend.

First figure just refer to the extension given to the main events suffered by Japan. First reference is still the earthquake, specially present in WSJ news. Fukushima related news receive a similar amount of news.

The following figures refer all to the Fukushima storyline.

The first one of them refers to main global issues in relation with Fukushima. While global attention to Fukushima is similar in both newspapers, we find that NY Times insists more than WSJ concerning “radioactive”, “contamination” and somewhat also “meltdown”. If we compare both to average US newspapers, we find that is WSJ which is underscoring these issues. It follows a clear different pattern concerning media coverage to “radioactive” and “contamination”.

In the following figure we show to which extent the newspapers use the reference to past nuclear disasters as a piece of the present Fukushima crisis storyline. We find a clear differenciated pattern between both newspapers. In comparison to US media coverage average, Wall Street Journal underuse references to past nuclear accidents. The underuse ratio is higher concerning the most severe past nuclear accident (Chernobyl, Level 7 accident) than concerning references to Three Mile Island, which did not provoke direct human casualties. The opposite happens with New York Times coverage: it stresses the media references to past nuclear accidents, in ha higher extent than US newspapers. Similar results concerning references to past disasters from other nature. References to the A-bomb suffered by Japan in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. References to BP oil spill disaster in Gulf of Mexico in the context of Japan disaster are marginal in US media and WSJ, by they play a certain role in the NYT storyline. Finally, the reference to the precedent big earthquake suffered by Japan, Kobe 1995 quake is reported in a similar way both by WSJ and NYT. In this case, the reference to past Japanese tragedy is unrelated with the nuclear debate.

There is a crucial choice that influences the whole profiling of the storyline: the basic labeling of the event. In the newxt figure we show the weight given by the newspapers to different wording of what is happening in Fukushima nuclear plant I Daiichi.

According to our results, the most used labeling is to refer to Fukushima as a “nuclear crisis”. This labeling takes 4.7 points of media impact in the storyline of news about the Japan disaster. In relative terms, this is also a preferred way to present the events by Wall Street Journal journalists. Other naming are “nuclear disaster”, by far less present, with 1.1 points of media impact. This is again a preferred option for WSJ. Third used option is “nuclear accident” (0.4 points), and is the chosen formula by NYT in relative terms to other media (in absolute terms, the main reference is to consider it as a “nuclear crisis”. Final used option is “nuclear emergency” (0.2 points), most widely used by WSJ. We can appreciate that the reference to an objective event, which is the explosion, is refelcted in the news in the same way by noth newspapers.

We echoed in a precedent post the controversial description by a top official from the European Union of Fukushima as an apocalyptic event. Our results show that only marginal media attention is given by US newspapers, and that NYT tends to use is in a higher proportion. Similar result concerning the use of “nightmare”.

Next figure refers to the appeareance of main local Japanese and international actors and authorities related with the crisis. Main reference for US media is Tokyo Electric Power, the company managing the Fukushima nuclear plant. We have splitted mentions to full name and those referring to it as TEPCO. WSJ shows references to the comapny in line with US average, and apparently prefers to use TEPCO instead of full name, in relative terms. This absence of divergent pattern is paradoxically an unexpected result. As WSJ is a business oriented newspaper, we should expect to find a special focus and media attention to Tokyo Electric Power concerning all different aspects when covering this nuclear crisis. This does not happen actually, and we will see later that this absence of interest on TEPCO is in sharp contrast with the media interest shown by WSJ in all other economic and business impact derived from the Japan earthquake and tsunami.

Concerning Japanese authorities, we find that WSJ and NYT insist more than US average when talking about them as a group (“Japanese Government”, “Japanese authorities”), but in a lower extent when referring to persons (Prime Minister Edano, Chief Cabinet Kan). Finally, the reference to the International Atimic Energy Agency is lower than average for NYT and specially for WSJ. The ratio Japanese Government/IAEA is 1.2 for average US media, 1.9 for NYT and 3.6 for WSJ. The way reference to local and international authorities is made is probably also a key factor in designing the storyline.

Other references

News Corp Scandal Media Coverage in US Newspapers

How Harmful Is News of the World Scandal for News Corp Reputation?

Movimiento 15-M, Democracia Real Ya: Perception by Local Newspapers El Mundo, El País, Intereconomía, Público

Bin Laden Killing News Storyline 1. Pakistan Media Coverage versus International Media (Ex USA)

New York Times and Wall Street Journal Coverage of Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Crisis (II) About The Nuclear Debate

Japan XIV. New York Times and Wall Street Journal Coverage of Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Crisis (II)

Japan XIII. New York Times and Wall Street Journal Coverage of Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Crisis (I)

Japan XII. Japan Prefectures Media Coverage. Relationship with Personnel and Property Casualties by Earthquake and Tsunami

Japan XI. Companies in Europe Most Affected by Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, Fukushima Nuclear Crisis, by Media Impact

Japan IX. Fukushima Nuclear Crisis Media Views in United States, United Kindgom, Australia and India.

Japan VIII. Wikileaks on Fukushima and the Japan Nuclear Crisis. Measurement of the Initial Media Storyline.

Japan VII. Fukushima as a Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster: Media References by Countries

Fukushima Nuclear Crisis Media Storyline: The Actors (TEPCO, the Workers, IAEA), The Nuclear Debate, The Economy

This post follows the precedent one (Japan IX). Please check it for explanations about how data is gathered and calculated.

In this second part we show some additional storyline components. They deal mainly with the actors of the crisis, as portrayed by newspapers from the United States, United Kingdom, Australia and India. We will refer also the how media is giving media coverage to other implication of this disaster: about the nuclear debate, and about the economic consequences.

First two figures refer to public institutions and personalities directly or indirectly affected by the Fukushima nuclear problem in terms of decisions, competencies or responsibilites.

Main media reference is TEPCO, Tokyo Electric Power, the company that manages the troubled nuclear plant. It is the main reference in all countries. The company is scrutinized apparently by the media as the main responsible for managing the crisis and limiting the nuclear damages. In future posts we will show results about media reputation analysis about TEPCO.

The following prominent public figures are the Japanese Government as an entity, the Prime Minister Naoto Kan and the Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano. They al share a very similar media exposure. Mr Kan prevails are reference for Australian media, while Yukio Edano is the reference for US and UK media.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is the third actor in importance in terms of media impact in the Fukushima crisis storyline. For American media they play a minor role (1.5 points of media impact) in comparison with Mr. Edano (3.0 points). By contrast, Australia offers a wide coverage to IAEA, similar to weight given to local Japanese authorities. Also Indian media gives a major role than US and UK colleagues.

At this point, US President Barack Obama plays a significative role in this crisis only for US media.

Other actors with a relevent role according to media are presented in the following figure. Yukiya Amano, from Japan, is the current Director of the IAEA. His media coverage profile by countries is quite in line with that given to IAEA. The following person in importance by media coverage in relation to Fukushima is Gregory JaczKo. He is the chairman of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. His remarks in front of the US Congress depicting a somber evaluation of the Fukushima crisis has had not only a national impact in US media, but also in the other countries monitored.

Emperor Akihito offered a public appearance and declaration about how “deeply worried” he was with the earthquake and tsunami disaster. His presence hs been portrayed mainly by British newspapers. At this moment (with news up to March 18), Greenpeace is playing a marginal role, as it captures merely 0.1-0.2 points of media impact by the media of our selected countries. World Health Organization is not being used as reference up to now.

In the following figure we show some elements concerning how the Japanese nuclear crisis is opening the nuclear debate in each country. Remember that only Australia does not use nuclear power. We will probably show in the future a deeper analysis on this issue.

We find that Australia media refers less than the other countries to these issues, specially concerning nuclear industry, protesters, activists and nuclear lobby. Apparently at this point it is a more sensitive issue for media in India. There is ongoing media coverage about the nuclear industry in United States and United Kingdom.


Next figure refers to storyline content directly related to business and the economy. It give some insights of the weight of economic considerations against the other ongoing issues, and suggest which economic issues are considered most relevant right now. The impact of the nuclear crisis, and of the Tohohu tsunami on exchange rates between Yen and Dollar appear to be a leading issue in terms of media coverage. The impact on Yen valuation is highly covered by US media. Media from India is specially sensitive to the economic impact and the impact on oil prices. The concern about the impact of the Japanese disaster on the stock markets come as a second lin issue. According to our results, there is only a marginal mention in the media about possible impact in the financial crisis and economic crisis. This is currently not a major concern for media in all four countries monitored.

Final figure considers other actors related to the crisis in a very direct and dramatic way in  some cases, like the workers and the emergency workers, and others in an indirect way, like scientists and experts. Our approach allows to provide answers concerning the media coverage provided to each group in each country.

The role of workers in Fukushima nuclear crisis is the main reference group for media. Media from US insist more than others. This pattern is repeated when referring more specifically to emergency workers. The group of authorities comes second, are more favoured by media from Australia and India.

The nuclear crisis is special in its media coverage as it requires explanations about technical issues to be understood by public opinion, and the severity of the events ask for innovative measures and solutions, and opens forecasts to unchartered ways. This is why specialists acquire a substantial role in the storyline of the Fukushima news coverage. According to our results, main media reference group is the so called “experts”, with a high media impact value of 4-5 points. They are specially used as source or reference by media from India and Australia. Then follows the group of scientists, with a media impact value around 1 point. They are most widely used by US media. Finally, the group of technicians take some 0.5 points of media impact, and again is US media the ones more focussing on theyr role and contribution.

Other references

Other references

Japan XIII. New York Times and Wall Street Journal Coverage of Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Crisis (I)

Japan XII. Japan Prefectures Media Coverage. Relationship with Personnel and Property Casualties by Earthquake and Tsunami

Japan XI. Companies in Europe Most Affected by Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, Fukushima Nuclear Crisis, by Media Impact

Japan IX. Fukushima Nuclear Crisis Media Views in United States, United Kindgom, Australia and India.

Japan IX. Fukushima Nuclear Crisis Media Views in United States, United Kindgom, Australia and India.

Japan VIII. Wikileaks on Fukushima and the Japan Nuclear Crisis. Measurement of the Initial Media Storyline.

Japan VII. Fukushima as a Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster: Media References by Countries

Japan VI. Fukushima Second Explosion Media Perception Compared to First Blast

Egypt and Tunisia: Twin Wikileaks Stories? (I)

In a recent post we showed some empirical results about what we considered the first political crisis after Wikileaks revelation of secret US Department Cables. Tunisia opened the new era where media counts with official documents on how the US diplomacy evaluate the political situation in every country.

Now, a fast developing political crisis takes place in Egypt. Up to now President Hosni Mubarak has removed entirely his Government, and has announced that he will not present as candidate in the next general elections, September 2011. President Mubarak has refused to quit the Presidency and the country, as he considers essential to conduct the transition in order to avoid chaos. Demonstrators still urge President Mubarak demission. There are clashes between partisans and opposition to Hosni Mubarak.

At this stage of the political crisis, not still closed, we present the results concerning the pieces of the storyline of the crisis in Egypt based exclusively on the news directly related to cables revealed by Wikileaks. This is the same exercise we ran with the Tunisia case.

As both the Egyptian and the Tunisian case are apparently extremely close in time, the country profile and the inception of the political unrest and crisis, we propose to show the Wikileaks news on Egypt by comparison with the Wikileaks news referring to Tunisia. This expercise offers us a quite nice check of how media uses and gives interpretation to the content of US Department cables. As the cases of the two countries are rather similar for a foreign reader (and probably also for some journalists) unfamiliar with the reality of both countries before the crisis started, we can address here the research question: do international media portray a similar picture for Egypt and Tunisia when referring to Wikielaks sources? As we have pointed out in many of our precedent posts, we do not assume the mission to elaborate or propose theoretical models from any field before presenting the empirical results. Our goal is just to provide empirical results to interested scientist and readers, as raw material for their own analysis and consideration.

We show then how international media publishing in English explain the situation in Egypt and Tunisia using Wikileaks sources. We follow the same approach used to analyse the case of Pakistan. We have also included a third set of observations, referring to the news where both countries are explicitly mentioned.

The empirical analysis we show is based in content analysis of some 3.000 articles about Egypt (with explicit mention to Wikileaks),  2.000 articles about Tunisia and 900 articles about Egypt and Tunisia together. Values in the graph are relative, and reflect the quantitative weight each issue has in the storilyne of the crisis and the secrets revealed.

First two graphs refer to terms that we consider that are basically showing how media depict the country politics and the Government based in the leaked cables. These terms should probable be those more in relation with the content of the secrets and confidential information revealed.

Our empirical results suggest clearly that the country and Government profile depicted when using Wikileaks sources is not homogeneous at all, as the weight of some terms changes dramatically in Tunisia and Egypt. The most extreme case is “Corruption”. It appears as the most present term in the Tunisian framework, while it counts some five times less in Egypt. In coherence with this result, a similar thing happens with the terms “Scandal” and “Bribe”. In the other side “Human Rights” and “Accontability” has a higger prevalence in Egypt than in Tunisia. As for the underlying economic conditions, it does not appear a clear picture: “Poverty” issues prevail in Egypt media coverage, while “Economic Crisis” is more present in Tunisia related news. “Terrorism” does not appear to be a key player in both countries and take a similar media attention.

 

The following results are  more related to the description of the ongoing political unrest and crisis, according to our understanding. We find again a specific media coverage for each country, even if the relevant issues are basically the same in both Egypt and Tunisia.

News related to “Freedom”, “Unrest”, “Riot” and “Conflict” prevail when explaining the crisis in Tunisia. “Chaos”, “Revolutionnaires”, “Violence”, “Demonstration” and “Concern” are much more associated to the crisis in Egypt.

 

Index of Wikileaks Media Impact (II), by January 23 2011

One month ago we published a post showing the trend of global media coverage of Wikileaks related news. We show now the up to date situation, with the time evolution during January 2011. The precedent graph included values till Dec 27 2010. We have marked that point with a big dot in the updated information.

Remember that value 100 corresponds to the level of global media attention reached in the first week of December. Maximum levels were reached by mid December, to some 120 points. At the end of the first published measurement, we already observed a clear decling path, and Wikileaks Index of Media Attention was at some 50-70 points.

In the following weeks the drop of media coverage continued regularly, without reaching the bottom. Only the series linked to news related to head of States has found out a minimum, while news related to countries and companies are still in the downward trend, still looking for the bottom. The lose of media attention is smoother since the third week of January.

In can also be observed a clear common path in terms of media content trend, as all three series follow exactly the same path and rythms. Right now all series converge to the same value, around 20 points. Is means that news produced worldwide in relation with Wikileaks are some five times lower in number that the amount published in the aftermath of the initial revelations. Remember that we use in this graph 30 days moving average values.

It is known that the selected newspapers counting with all US State Department secrets have decided since some weeks to stop in practice the publication of substantial amounts of new documents. Wikileaks media attention, even if substantially lower than in the intial stages is sustained with the evolution of the peripeties linked to Julian Assange, to the use of Wikileaks information to help to explain the Tunisian political crisis and more recently to the offering of new confidential information coming from the Swiss bank Julius Baer.

Future evolution of the Wikileaks Index will clearly depend on the publication of new secrets, and on the timing of publication of new affaires unconnected with US Department of State cables (US bank communications, Julius Baer documents or other).