Why Football Fans in Twitter Wish that Cristiano Ronaldo Wins FIFA Ballon d’Or 2012

We present another analysis about the power of football players as icons, and some learnings about social media dynamics, by exploring Twitter content analysis.

As explained in the previous post, FIFA representatives will announce this next Monday 7 January 2012 who is the Football Player of the Year, awarded with the FIFA Ballon d’Or, which is the result of the merger of the two most prestigious individual football awards: FIFA Football Player of the Year and Ballon d’Or by France Football.

There are three finalists from a previous shortlist of 23 football players. They are: Leo Messi (FC Barcelona, Spanish League), Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, Spanish League) and Andrés Iniesta (FC Barcelona, Spanish League).

We have shown in the previous post that based in media value analysis, Argentinian Leo Messi playing in FC Barcelona is the favorite to win the award. Betting odds by leading online betting firms show also a clear favoritism for Leo Messi (79.5% assigned probabilities, for 11.5% for Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) and 9% for Iniesta (FC Barcelona)).

Now we explore in this post which is the feeling in the social media about who will be the winner. As in other previous studies, we have chosen Twitter sentiment analysis, as Twitter is an open social espace, in contrast with other social media platforms.

We have monitored tweets published between 23 December 2012 and 5 January 2013. We have included results for tweets published in English, Spanish, French, Italian and Portuguese.

We have identified the tweets where a clear preference was shown for one of the three finalists. The statement may reflect a winning conviction, a desire or a petition.

We present first the results day by day. They appear in the following figure.

Our empirical analysis shows that Cristiano Ronaldo has been the preferred option, with  a large advantage, within the period between 26 December and 2 January. Before and after this period, Leo Messi got the highest share of tweets concerning the FIFA Golden Ball. Andrés Iniesta appears consistently as the third option, with a share of tweets between 5%-15%, except a peak of 25% by 3 January 2013.

fifa ballon d'or 2013 favorite odds by twitter fans cristiano messi iniesta

Which is the aggregate result? Who is the player that gets more ‘popular votes’ in Twitter during the whole period covered in our analysis? We present in the following figure the evolution of the aggregate values of tweets received by each finalist, between 23 December and 5 January.

The results show that during the first couple of days Leo Messi was the preferred choice in the social media. But the trend changed abruptly since 26 December 2012. Cristiano Ronaldo becomes the first option, increasing its share to a maximum of 70% of all published Tweets by 2 January 2013. Since 3 January Leo Messi is gaining momentum again.

fifa ballon d'or 2012 favorite odds by twitter social media fans cristiano messi iniesta 7 january zurich

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Our results say that taking into account all tweets published between 23 December and 5 January, the fans’ preferences in Twitter come as follows:

1. Cristiano Ronaldo: 61.9%

2. Leo Messi: 27.1%

3. Andrés Iniesta: 11%

A clear question emerge: why do we have a huge divergence between perception in the social media and perception by betting professionals and other analysis?

Presence and engagement with followers do influence Twitter social media conversation

There may be many answers to why people in Twitter prefer Cristiano Ronaldo winning the Ballon d’Or even if apparently objective chances are not with him.

A first answer could come from the base of fans of each football star. Cristiano Ronaldo has played both in the Spanish League with Real Madrid and in the English Premiership with Manchester United (and also with the Portuguese Sporting Clube de Portugal when he was a young promising star). This broad set of followers is important, as English Premiership is dominant in Asia and Oceania, By contrast, Leo Messi has always played with FC Barcelona, since he was 13 years old. Cristiano could also have more fans than Messi among women due to his physical attractiveness.

Even if this reason seems appealing, it does not solve the problem satisfactorily. Our analysis shown in the previous post shows that Leo Messi is by far the global media reference of the season 2011/12. If he is present globally in the news more than Cristiano Ronaldo, this is because his sport performance is considered superior, but it also reflects that readers (and thus fans) want to know about this performance, that journalists are likewise ‘obliged’ to publish.

Besides, we count with tools to measure, at least indirectly, the number of fans that each football star attracts, thanks again to social media. Followers in the social media are a good proxy for actual number of fans.

Looking at Facebook figures we have (data by 5 January 2013):

1. Cristiano Ronaldo: 52.6 million followers.

2. Leo Messi: 49.9 million followers.

3. Andrés Iniesta: 11.7 million followers.

We find thus that both Cristiano and Messi count with almost the same power in Facebook.

The difference comes when we look at results in Twitter.

1. Cristiano Ronaldo 15.2 million followers

2. Andrés Iniesta: 5.1 million followers

3. Leo Messi: there is no official account.

And here comes the inception of the answer that we privilege: Leo Messi is not present in Twitter for some reason, and he is paying the price in terms of lower visibility than other stars similar to him. In the same time, Facebook numbers are telling us that both megastars count with a similar number of followers worldwide.

Our first finding is presence: if a brand, corporate or personal, is in Twitter, social media conversation around the brand will probably increase. If you are a powerful and admired brand, being exposed in the social media with an official active Twitter account will probably benefit you and increase your brand power.

For instance, 16.4% of tweets chosing Andrés Iniesta as favorite for the award were addressed directly to his Twitter account @andresiniesta8, in a suggested interaction from the followers to the star.

This ‘imagined dialogue’ does not exist with Leo Messi, as Messi’s fans know that he will never read the messages as he is not present in Twitter.

Like with Andrés Iniesta, many followers of the Portuguese star write a tweet as if they were talking or sending a personal message to Cristiano Ronaldo, using his account @Cristiano.

The relevant point in the case we present today is that Cristiano Ronaldo and/or his social media team have fostered this ‘dialogue’ these last days by interacting directly with followers in Twitter. This will be the second finding: engagement.

They have chosen a very smart way to maintain a dialogue with the star and increase the traffic of tweets in the days previous to the announcement of FIFA Ballon d’Or winner.

Here is the dymanics chosen by @Cristiano team to increase substantially engagement with followers.

1. Find an objective reason to interact with followers. The issue chosen was to celebrate reaching the 15 million followers mark. Instead of presenting a proposal, they asked for ideas, linked around the hashtag #celebrate15M. This was 18 December 2012.

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2. Show with RT some of the proposals sent by fans.

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3. He announces by Christmas the way to celebrate the mark: with the fans

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4. Every day, a question for the fans. 15 fortunate fans will appear in @Cristiano TL, and will be voted with RT by all Cristiano Ronaldo fans as the best tweet of the day. All this mechanism means a lot of messages directly addressed to @Cristiano, and a lot of RT to the selected tweets. This means a substantial increase of traffic in Twitter around Cristiano Ronaldo. These are the 5 questions posed by Cristiano:

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5. The celebration with fans was opened by 27 December ended by 1st January.

Now, if we look back again the first graph, we can find that the challenges proposed by Cristiano Ronaldo match with the sudden increase of mentions of followers hoping that Cristiano become the winner of Ballon d’Or. Challenges posed in 30 and 31 December got as an easy answer for followers ‘we want you winning the Ballon d’Or next 7 January’. This answer was picked only by exception among the selected 15 answers in his TL, but flooded Twitter during these days, as we have found out.

All in all, this case shows us that powerful brands count with creative means to interact with followers in the social media, in a way highly appreciated by them. Benefits for the fans, benefits for the brand.

In our case, interaction launched by @Cristiano has as a result that people in Twitter see that a vast majority of Twitter users prefer Cristiano Ronaldo winning the FIFA Ballon d’Or.

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Other analysis in this site about FIFA Ballon d’Or

 

Merry Christmas, Season’s Greetings or Happy Holidays? Twitter Content Analysis

Christmas time. A very special time in countries with Christian tradition.

This is a moment when many people send messages to relatives. Postcards was the traditional way to send Christmas messages. Then came also the e-mail. Now social media play a new role also in this aspect. There are many individuals and corporations that take advantadge of the personal and professional network created around Facebook and Twitter to send best wishes through these platforms, as a complement or even as a substitution to other traditional means to send greetings.

We have selected Twitter as channel to analyse the dynamics of Christmas related greetings. As Twitter is a completely open platform (in contrast with Facebook), any message can potentially be read by everyone, besides the inner circle of the Twitter user’s followers. This allows us to have access to the whole social conversation around a given issue, like Christmas greetings.

We have explored this case also as a means to show some results generated applying Twitter content analysis.

We have monitored Christmas greetings in Spanish (“Feliz Navidad” Vs “Felices fiestas). This is why we have published the complete report in Spanish, in our section ‘Casos en castellano’ (you can access it here: Felicitar la Navidad en Twitter).

We present here in this summary just the main findings.

  • Time distribution

39.6% of all greetings were sent by 24 December. 22.8% by 25 December. 31.5% between 21 and 23 December. Just 6.1% before 21 December.

distribucion temporal de las felicitaciones de navidad en twitter espana diciembre 2012

  • Peak hour: 24 December, 8pm

Below, the greetings tweets trend, hour by hour (24 and 25 December).

feliz navidad 2012 felicitaciones en twitter espana dinamica 24 25 diciembre

  • In Spain, 77.7% Twitter users use “Feliz Navidad” (Merry Christmas), while 22.3% choose “Felices fiestas” (Happy Holidays)

Below, the figure showing the evolution of “Feliz Navidad” rate, day by day.

proporcion de feliz navidad frente a felices fiestas diciembre 2012

  • Geolocalization: Pamplona, Valladolid, the cities in Spain using more profusely the expression “Feliz Navidad”. Madrid above national average, Barcelona below average.
  • Geolocalization Latin American Countries

Twitter geolocalization analysis applied to Spain and Latin American countries show that in many countries  ”Feliz Navidad” is the only socially accepted form for greeting in Christmas time. In countries like Peru, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador, Feliz Navidad is used in more than 95% of all cases.

Argentina, Spain and Nicaragua are the countries where the greeting “Felices fiestas” has more followers, even if it is still a choice made by a minority of Twitter users.

peso de felicitacion feliz navidad en twitter 2012 paises peru chile cuba venezuela uruguay

Pizzas for 1 euro. Telepizza Promotion 29 Feb 2012. Impact on Brand Perception

The company. Marketing Strategy

Telepizza is a Spanish based food company, specialized in delivery and takeaway service.

Telepizza was founded in Spain in 1988. It opens its first store in Madrid. Pioneers into the home delivery pizza segment in Spain. In 1996 goes public through an IPO. In 2006 Telepizza is no longer public and becomes part of private capital

According to company source, ‘Telepizza is the leader in delivery service and takeaway in Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Chile, Poland and Central America.’ In 1999 it had a market share of 62% in the Spanish pizzas market.

In 2010 Telepizza has more than 1.183 stores worldwide.

As many other fast food and delivery and take away services, Telepizza is very actively in the marketing strategy based in promotions. Basically all commercials are based in presenting promotions. See for instance Teleppiza’s Youtube Channel videos. A similar appraoch is ised in Facebook Telepizza Wall. As well as for main web site. Twitter is used rather as a channel to interact with costumers.

To ensure that promotions reach target audience, they require aggressive messages to attract attention, pushing to surprise, amusement or curiosity.

 An unusual promotion for an unusual day

By mid February Telepizza announced an audacious new promotion: as 29 February 2012 is an unique day happening every four years, so it will be for Telepizza customers. This day they can buy as individual size many pizzas as they want for one euro each (1.3 US$). The normal price without promotions is 11.95 euros.

Telepizza has used in other cases to link a promotion to a specific day, like St. Valentine. Some call this marketing approach as Dayketing.

The promotion was so attractive for Telepizza’s customers that it could create a powerful call effect. My understanding is that in this occasion the message itself was the marketing tool chosen to become the channel to widespread the promotion to new circles. A promotion to create a reaction powerful enough to escape from the circle of traditional Telepizza customers and reach other costumers currently preferring other fast food brands. In other words, the cost of the subsidised pizzas is the price of an indirect ad campaign nourished and developed by customers benefiting from this unusual promotion.

The key element for transforming the promotion into induced publicity is paradoxically to renounce to the core business model. Being basically a home delivery and take away food service, the promotion was restricted only to those buying the products in the company restaurants. This restricted the options for consumers to on restaurant consumption and take away commands. Obliging costumers to go to the stores overcrowding the restaurants or showing to the public the pizza boxes if taken away was the obliged choice to ensure and multiply the visibility of the promotion and Telepizza products. If successful, this marketing campaign should show everyone that there is a lot of Telepizza lovers.

Why are we covering this marketing case in our blog about crisis, media and reputation?

Brand promotions as crisis.

Because when you create an ad campaign designed in purpose to become a viral event, you control as a company the starting point of the storyline, but if you succeed and you marketing idea become a viral phenomenon, the development of the storyline escape completely from the hands of the company. It is taken by social media actors, and public mood may stay attached and friendly to the company, or turn aggressively against the interest of the company.

We have plenty of examples of viral ad campaign launched by companies that turned completely wrong. One recent case that will become an epitome of branding suicide is the Twitter hashtag launched by McDonald’s, #MCDStories, to ask customers to share their best experiences. The hashtag was posted by McDonalds Twitter account by 18 January 2012. It turned quickly as a weapon used to create bloody tweets reproducing and increasing the impact of usual attacks against McDonald’s practices and products (health concerns, labor conditions, quality of the products, preference for rival brands). Twitter is a perfect platform for turning into derision, mockery and subtle or gruesome attacks any kind of otherwise serious items. McDonald’s pulled the campaign within two hours, but the hashtag developed and grew by its own eventually becoming a TT. You know how these kind of risky bets start, but you do not know at all how will they finish, as you do not control the final message. As Forbes Kashmir Hill journalist invented, a hashtag becomes for you a bashtag.

Within two hours, McDonalds pulled #McDStories, saying that the effort “did not go as planned.”

This was a hard price learning experience. “As Twitter continues to evolve its platform and engagement opportunities, we’re learning from our experiences,” Rick Wion, McDonald’s social media director, said in a statement today.

Going back to our Telepizza case, launching a potential viral marketing ad was not without risks. It contained some spicy ingredients. Risk of negative comments could come from:

Those that consider that all kinds of fast food proposals create unhealthy consumption behavior.

  • Those that consider that Telepizza, like other brand sin the food delivery sector offer low salaries and poor working conditions.
  • People loving fast food consumption but who prefer rival brands.
  • People considering that Telepizza offers poor quality products or poor quality delivering services

All these existed, as according to some sources Telepizza does not enjoy an excellent reputation. Even if numbers are not representative, you can check here the results from an Android app about customers’ satisfaction.

The specific profile of the promotion could create tailored negative comments and reactions:

  • It could reinforce the perception that products are of bad quality, and this is why they are offering them at that price.
  • In the context of the current severe economic crisis inSpain, reduced promotion prices could lead people to conclude that Telepizza is a greedy company getting extraordinary margins with normal times price of products.
  • The promotion could create the perception that Telepizza is oriented to poor working class customers and low income. This could create a bad segmentation of costumers, pulling out some people that do not want to be associated to a low income brand.
  • Of the conditions of the promotion are clearly labelled, faked consumers tend to overreact negatively crying against what they consider a misleading marketing operation.

Some other negative reactions could emerge as a result of the eventual success of the promotion in attracting a lot of pizza lovers.

  • Some locals could enter into shortage of products and could stop offering the promoted pizzas before 12pm, creating anger among customers.
  • If the promotion attract a lot of people, it could generate crowd agglomerations and long waiting queues

Tracking the impact of the 29 February events

If the indirect campaign has to run as ideally expected, the mechanisms for amplifying the existence of the extraordinary promotion should come all from social media channels. Main channels for a day-on-day social media viral diffusion are Facebook, Tuenti (a Spanish social media networks similar to Facebook, strongly oriented to young people and teenagers), Twitter and smartphones.

There is no direct way to track smartphone and Tuenti traffic. As for Telepizza, some analysis may be reached by using reactions and comments posted in Telepizza Facebook page. They are not representative of reaction inside Facebook community. The restriction imposed to the access of the content posted by Facebook users limits the utility of this channel for social media impact analysis.

By contrast, the very nature of Twitter, rooted on the principle of universal access to all content published inside the network makes it an excellent source for social media impact analysis.

We have monitored systematically reaction in Twitter community concerning Telepizza by 29 February and before and after this day. Based in the design of our data set and with the information collected, we propose in this post a brand perception impact analysis.

29 February 2012 at Telepizza Restaurants. Telepizza Social Media Diffusion Strategy

Stage 1: until lunch time.

Stores open al 11am. The dynamics of the opening hours are crucial for defining the momentum of the marketing operation. Approaching to lunch time (that in ‘Spainis different’ means 1:30pm to 4pm, even in working days) should create already the call effect coming from those already taking advantage of the promotion. It required that accumulation of people in Telepizza stores should be noticeable, and happy consumers share it to friend and social media community.

Checking out Telepizza Spainofficial Twitter account (@telepizza_es), we find that morning tweets were used to explain to costumers which were the affiliated stores (as a franchise system, not all stores accepted to apply the promotion), and which products were affected by the promotion.

They reinforced the message ‘take as many pizzas as you want’

Telepizza was also directly promoting the ‘share you experience’ movement by asking people buying a lot of pizzas to upload their photos.

Creating a visible crowd effect was also a crucial factor in the amplification impact of the promotion. Again, photos showing crows and agglomerations were asked to be upload by Telepizza Twitter. This was 12:04 pm

They promoted directly first photos showing people queuing in a Telepizza store. This was 2:30 pm

Then came the photos by customers chosen by Telepizza. here they are.

As crowds around Telepizza restaurants started to appear in different places by mid day, people observing the spectacle shared spontaneously photos in Twitter. We present here some examples of captions published before 3pm.

Points in common of photos published by Twitter users is that almost all refer to people queuing for having their pizzas. Some of them comment that these images are creating an excellent publicity to Telepizza promotion. In general, content is positive and do not show aggressive negative attacks.

As this is an open an public information, we show also in the last caption the profile of the Twitter user, as it gives the information of number of followers each person has. Twitter users become the prescriptors of Telepizza promotion and contribute to make viral its diffusion.

In fact, some to Twitter users publishing pics about people queuing at Telepizza stores aknowledge that they are sustaining the ad campaign, like the following two cases:

The way was paved to create an auto generated explosion of the diffusion of the effect.

Stage 2: during the afternoon. Becoming a Twitter TT

Reactions, comments and sharing developed during the afternoon through the different social media platforms.

And then, Telepizza became a Twitter trending topic (TT). This is a capture by 5pm. This means that pizzas for 1 euro by Telepizza becomes a subject to talk about for open public not directly related with the promotion (pizza consumers, witness of the crowds in front of the stores).

As explained before, it is at this very moment that the Telepizza brand enters into the crisis area. The company does not control or at least direction the message anymore. It pertains now to the Twitter community, and the evolution of the mood depend entirely on how ‘twitterstars’, ‘Twitter directioners’ and common users react to this new topic.

We have already identified which were the main risky items with the power to transform this promotion into a negative brand reputation crisis.

As commented in here and in previous post, Twitter is the natural place for mockery and ironical messages. With the ongoing evolution of events, reflected in uploaded pics, Twitter users had additional ammunition to refer and joke about the promotion: the growing long queues by people wishing to by pizzas for one euro each.

As we will show later in a quantitative analysis, messages related with the crowds longing for cheap pizzas eventually became the preferred component of the storyline linked to Telepizza promotion. There are some examples of imagination and mockery like this one tweet. ‘I am in the queue of a Telepizza… HELP!’ The author, @LoQueTuPiensas, has more than 5000 followers, and the tweet was retweeted by many.

Telepizza stayed as TT for almost all the rest of the day. For instance, by 7pm the TT became more explicitly linked to the promotion ‘Telepizza a1’

How did the visual content evolve after Telepizza became TT?

It maintained basically the same profile showed in the morning. Pics were mainly made by people queuing or witnessing the crowds. There were also pictures of people proud to show their collection of pizzas. Some examples below for pictures after 5 pm. Some of the pictures are a direct message of a successful an unusual popular phenomenon.

There were even people that uploaded a video in Youtube showing the crowds waiting for pizzas.

The queues and Twitter comments and messages continued well after the end of the promotion.

Measuring the impact of the promotion in Twitter

First relevant measurement is traffic received by Telepizza during all 29 February in terms of tweets explicitly mentioning the brand.

Normally numbers in absolute terms are meaningless. Relevant figures emerge when you provide terms of comparison to absolute values.

A fist way to approach the impact of the indirect publicity made for Telepizza by the Twitter community is to assess how much it represents in comparison to an average business day. We take as reference the tweets per day generated between 22 and 27 February 2012 by Telepizza. We give to this figure a value 1.

Our analysis shows that Twitter traffic was some 63 times higher than in a normal day for Telepizza. Abnormal high traffic started already the day before, as it reached a value 3.2. This shows the induced impact of the ads and commercials directly created 8and paid) by Telepizza announcing the innovative promotion. The day after was also a day of extraordinary traffic (due also to late night tweets just after the expiration of the promotion). Twitter traffic the day after, in 1st March was 7.9.

So, we find that Telepizza created a number of tweets equivalent to two months of normal traffic, in one single day. This result is for us extremely relevant. Not only because of shows the size of the impact of the promotion and the consequences of becoming a TT. It also implies that for many Twitter users that are no usual customers, brand perception about Telepizza quality of the product and attractiveness of the consumption experience would be highly influenced by the content of the messages channelled through twitter during 29 February. This is what we call shock branding. Content analysis is crucial. Before analysing content, we provide some additional elements of evidence about the impact of the marketing campaign.

We provide a second way to gauge how relevant is the increase of mentions received by Telepizza thanks to its innovative promotion.

We have show in  the following figure a ranking of brand visibility in Twitter of competitors of Telepizza acting in the fast food sector. We have taken measures of presence in Twitter message between 25 February and 3 March 2012, for tweets written in Spanish. We have given a value equal to 1 to the average of all brands in our list.

The figure shows us that during the period covered by our analysis, the main reference is the beberage brand Coca-Cola, with 3.8 points. It is follower by fast food burger McDonalds, with 2.8 points.Third place, at a substantial distance, we find Pepsi, with 1.3 points. It is followed by Kentucky Fried Chicken (1.06 points) and then VIPS (0.9). VIPS is a Spanish based chain of restaurants. Telepizza takes the eighth place, with 0.5 points. This corresponds to the natural position of Telepizza, and has been obtained by measuring tweets reveived excluding 28, 29 Feb and 1st March, as they do not correspond to normal business days.

We can appreciate the impact in brand visibility for Telepizza thanks to its audacious promotion in the next figure.

When we include the impact of tweets linked to pizzas for one euro promotion, Telepizza brand visibility rockets to a total 5.35 points. Thus all traffic received during this special week becomes Telepizza as the leading reference in of the fast food business sector in the Spanish speaking area, above giants Coca-Cola and McDonalds.

So, in terms of brand visibility, we can judge the marketing initiative as a tremendous success.

We can take a look on the dynamics of Telepizza visibility in Twitter during the day of the extraordinary promotion. It is shown in the following figure. We give a value 1 to the hourly average of tweets during day 29 February. The restaurnts opened at 11 am. The impact was not really noticeable since 1pm. Spain is a country of late eating schedule. Lunch time is between 1h30 to 4pm in week days, dinner time is around 9-10pm. Twitter traffic reached a first peak of 1.7 around 4pm. Lunch time attendance and initial crowds and queuing was the motor of tweets. It allowed Telepizza to become a Twitter trending topic (TT) in Spain, as we have shown, around that time. This created the perfect preparation of social media impact for dinner time, which is much more important for fast food and home delivery restaurants during week days. Number of tweets increased and exploded after 7pm. They reached their day maximum (and probably their history maximum) by 9pm, with a value of 5.1. Number of tweets were still extraordinarily high in the following hours, and ceased after 3am.

Next step is to assess to which extent quantity was connected to quality, and if this huge but concentrated increate of social media attention portrayed positive messages about the brand, and has strengthen or al least preserved the brand perception of the company.

The role of Newspapers

Before showing the profile of Twitter message, we present the results concerning the impct of this promotion in newspapers. We ahve chosen to monitor their online edition, as we wanted to track their reaction to the impact of crowds around Telepizza stores as possible news story. The figure below presents the number of news by day during February 2012 and since 6 March 2012.

The average number of news per day is 2.51. If we exclude the news about the 29 February promotion, the daily average is 0.85. This is a low visibility in newspapers. This low profile is explained by the fact that Telepizza is currently a private non traded company.

We have distinguished news in three groups: news about 29 February promotion, news about other promotions, and news not related with promotions. News about promotions (including pizzas for one euro promotion) represent 84% of all news about Telepizza during the period under analysis.

The special promotion for 29 February day was relayed by many newspapers, as it was published in 32 newspapers, de day before. This is 53% of all news in February. Almost all news were based in the content of the press release launched by Telepizza. Content was focused in the expected increase of sales (700%) estimated by the company thanks to the promotion.

The promotion was present in another 8 news during the promotion day. They were all of them news based in the Telepizza press release, acting as lagged media. There was no news at all published during the day commenting the pehnomenon of long queues around Telepizza restaurants. This is not a surprising result. But this is providing us a very relevant piece of information: the diffusion of the promotion, once it started, was not supported through traditional media: it was due entirely to the effect and impact of social media reaction.

There were few mentions about the special promotion between 1st to 3rd March.Among them, the crowds as main topic of the news was chosen only by Que! (Telepizza a 1 euro el 29 de febrero: un Gran Hermano en la calle) and El Confidencial (La oferta de pizzas a 1 euro de Telepizza trae mucha cola). The other news commented the impact of the promotion in terms of increase of sales.

Again, we conclude that this story was completely ‘told’ through social media channels.

Twitter Content Analysis: Crowds and Queuing

First reference that we propose concerning Twitter messages content analysis is to check the extent of the ‘look! there are crowds out there waiting for buying pizzas’ effect.

We have monitored the tweets explicitly reffering to crowds and queuing when posting a tweet about Telepizza. Our results, presented in the figure below, show that this topic played a crucial role in the storyline of how the Telepizza promotion was perceived by Twitter users.

Mentions to crowds appear as soon as the restaurants opened at 11am. At 2pm, the share of tweets talking about crowds represented 53.1% of all tweets about Telepizza. Overlapping this figure with the previous one, we see that by 2pm the number of tweets grew substantially. After this moment, share of mentions about crowds oscillated between 20% and 30%. This means that during the two peaks, at 4pm and at 9pm, there were a substantial proportion of them talking about the impressive crowds of people waiting for having their pizzas. This is a first element concerning the content profile of tweets about Telepizza: crowds around Telepizza restaurants was the main single topic of the storyline.

Telepizza Brand Perception: Twitter Content Analysis

Now we enter into the territory of brand reputation analysis. We have shown in previous posts some tools developped by our Media, Reputations and Intangible center. Now we show new proposals on how to track and measure the impact of events and crisis in brand perception in social media.

First, we present a global measure of the share of tweets with positive-negative content. Reaching a value 100 means that all tweets with positive-negative profile are in fact positive towards the brand. If it reaches value 0, it means that all possible positive-negative tweets are in fact attacking or showing a negative perception about the brand.

Our analysis show that satisfaction index reached a 91 points value the days before the promotion emerged as topic. 27 and 28 February tweets were already driven by the approaching promotion day. The weight of negative content tweets raised, as satisfaction index dropped to 76 points. During the promotion day, that experienced this unpredecented explosion of tweets, the satisfaction ration was established around 80 points. Satisfaction ration dropped a little bit in the aftermath to 75 points. During the following days, where new content emerged, not related with the impact of the astonishing promotion, satisfaction ratio recovered previous values, to 90 points.

So, first results suggest that the massive social media impact was associated in the short term with a deterioration of the brand perception inside the Twitter community.

My personal view is that this is not telling us by itself that the audacious social media marketing strategy went wrong also in this case, and promoted hashatag become a treasonous bashtag. Consider rather that this promotion generated a Twitter traffic some 60 times higher than normal day, and that this massive impact was accompaigned with a satisfaction ratio of 80. This means that for every tweet with a negative content about Telepizza, its quality, the ridicoulous queues and so, there were some other four tweets with a positive content about this brand. If we consider that one of the constituent elements of Twitter is mockery, attacks to rivals and creative comments, Telepizza phenomenon creating crowds of people waiting for their pizzas did not receive a bad rating by Twitter community. Furthermore, it has to be taken into account that when you become a TT you are reaching new observers from outside the circle or people directly interested by the promotion or the event in the streets. You reach new people completely or partially unconnected with the story, who can react in very different ways.

All in all, we consider that these figures tell us that Telepizza survived quite well the risk of a global social media exposure in Spain, and bran perception was basically preserved. It also reveals that the brand did not receive a direct increase of praise and brand reputation. But this promotion contributed to build brand equity based in a substantial short lived increase of brand visibility. It was financed by the diminution of income per pizza, but this was the prize to pay for creating crowds around Telepizza restaurants as mechanism for free social media viral diffusion.

Telepizza Brand Perception: Twitter Positive Content Analysis

Next step is to consider what did Twitter used like when posting a tweet about Telepizza with positive content. We have also the information about the structure of negative comments, but we do not include the results in this post to control the extension.

In normal times, positive comments about a brand is mostly driven by product or service costumers having a direct and personal experience. There are also a portion of positive comments that arise from brand lovers reaction to a news about the brand.

Telepizza created a social media event, so it attracted in Twitter communication a lot of people not directly related with the consumption (and queuing) experience, nor the experience of acting as witness of the crowds around Telepizza stores. Lokking into the detail of what people find positive when talking about Telepizza provides useful information about the brand perception impact of the promotion for the global public opinion.

We present first the distribution of categories of positive tweets before the impact of the promotion, as represented in the following figure. This refers to tweets between 22 and 28 February. We cannot present here the details of the methodology applied to produce the results presented in this section, as we want to focus our analysis in the presentation of the results. Methodological steps are oriented to academic or professional readers. We find that in 45% of cases they refer to messages showing personal satisfaction experienced by the author of the tweet (‘I’m happy’). The same weight (44%) is given to messages showing that what they are doing, talking about or watching is amusing (‘It’s amusing’). We have 9% of positive tweets directly writting that they like Telepizza brand, products or services (‘I like it’). There are finally a small percentage of tweets (2%) that show surprise, astonishment or admiration (It’s amazing).


What can we say about the structure of positive comments about Telepizza? Nothing special. As we have pointed out many times in this blog, numbers taken alone are normally meaningless in the brand reputation sphere. They become informative and relevant by comparison with other moments in time, or if we comapre them against other brands. We could provide comparison of Telepizza positive brand perception against other fast food brands, but this is not the main aim of this post.

What we can do, is to observe how the structure of positive comments has been affected by the massive social media coverage during the special promotion day. Results are shown in the following figure.

We find that massive social media coverage during day 29 February has been translated into a substantial increase of the share of comments type ‘It’s amusing’, as they share increases from 44% to 69% of all positive comments. This is a clear reflect of the impact produced by people talking about queues in front of Telepizza restaurants. Many of them come from people being there, waiting for ordering their pizzas. They share the moment with friends. Other comments come from people witnessing the spectacle of long lines of people, and react with sympathy. Finally, some other comment all the events from the distance and find them amusing.

Direct positive experience (‘I’m happy’) drops substantially, as it moves from 45% to simply 18% of all positive comments. Clearly, the story is not in enjoying eating the pizzas, but in waiting for eating them. The same occurs for the ‘I like it’ comments.

Finally, we observe an increase of the weight of comments showing admiration, ‘It’s amazing’. It goes from 2% in normal days, to 7%. This is again a direct reflect of the crowds phenomenon induced by the promotion.

Finally, we have the after the promotion positive reactions. They are captured in the following figure.

We observe a retrenchment to normal times profile of positive comments: the share of ‘It’s amusing’ comments is reduced, from 69% to 61% and the ‘I am happy’ increases again, from 18% to 30%. The ‘It’s amazing’ comments disappear and lose the role played during the promotion day. The ‘I like it’ direct experience comments reach again the 9% level.

Of course, further time analysis is required to extract rubust conclusions about the impact of the special promotion both in the share of positive comments and in their inner structure. Our aim was just to show metrics and tools that allow to identify the impact of a relevant event in the brand perception of a brand. Depending on the very nature of each brand (a corporation, an institution, a personality, a star, a country) and on the type of event or crisis suffered, the design of the Twitter analysis should be defined in consequence. Each story requires its own interpretation schemes.

Impact on Visual Brand Perception

There is another way to check the impact of the promotion in Telepizza brand perception. It consists in analysing the influence it has had in the brand image of the company. We talk here about images in strict sense.

There is an indirect way to assess the perceived quality and reputation of a brand, corporation or personality by the systematic analysis of the images chosen by someone to represent a brand. This is brand analysis technique that it is not widely used according to our knowledge.

We have depelopped our own techniques on visual brand perception at MRI Universidad de Navarra. We have shown to the public some of our results in previous studies.

For instance, in this blog we have shown some reputation crisis analysis based in the photos in news articles chosen by journalists to explain a crisis affecting several corporations. We found out that Bank of America was the brand most punished in the collective lawsuit by FHFA against 17 banks.

We applied this technique also to show the negative reputation impact of the false accusations by German authorities against cucumbers produced in Spain of being the source of the E Coli contagion. We have a post about E Coli crisis in this blog. The analysis about the impact on visual perception of Spanish produced vegetables are included in the full report as pdf document.

We apply this technique in the Telepizza case, but using an adapted approach. Our aim is to evaluate to which extent the social media viral success of the marketing promotion and its translation into amazing images of crowds waiting for having their pizza may affect the global visual perception of Telepizza as a brand. News analysis is not relevant in this case, was we have shown before.

The alternative that we propose is to analyse the visual brand perception of Telepizza in internet. All different platforms in internet are currently the main source of contact with a brand (official websites, sites from other companies, online newspapers, blogs, forums, social media connectors like Facebook, Twitter or Youtube). We identify a selection of representative images, and we weight them according to the power and influence of the site showing them. We classify them according to content. We count with the results concerning Telepizza and many other brands.

In this post we will focus our analysis in a single component of the visual brand perception which is of strategic value for the business sector of restauration: images related with consumers experience. Images of people eating the products, seated in the restaurant or waiting for ordering are essential for food brand equity. The ‘we are happy’ images linked to a brand are crucial for creating customers call effect. In a mall, people tend to go to restaurants already full of people instead of chosing those with more free places.

In order to identify the visual brand perception in the ‘having a good time’ vector associated to Telepizza, we have performed an image analysis of the following brandds: McDonalds, Burger King, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Pizza Hut, Domino’s Pizza, and local competitors 100 Montaditos and Pans & Company. As a way to ensure that results are comparable, we have monitored images published in documents written in Spanish.

In the following figure we have a visual representation of the weight of the ‘ having a good time’ vector of Telepizza and its competitors.

According to our results, the fast food brand that currently is more strongly associated to customers eating and drinking is Spanish based 100 Montaditos. Second brand is KFC and third brand is McDonalds.

Telepizza (with red line frame) is the brand that counts with the poorest records in this brand vector, less than one thrid that the average weight taken by its rivals. This is a result that should not be surprising. It is one of the brand perception consequences of the business model chosen by Telepizza. Their objective and strategy is to become the leading reference in home delivery and take away fast food services. Other competitors base their business in restaurant consumption. If main source of income for Telepizza comes from home delivery, consumption becomes a private experience that is not shared by other witnessess outside the inner circle. Telepizza renounces to the brand visibility that is created by seeing other people at fast food restaurants. This is also why Telepizza business model relies so heavily in continuos marketing campaigns based in promotions aiming to create a call effect.

Increasing perception as warm and convivial brand is withour doubt rewarding for Telepizza business. Those brands in the fast food sector being most associated to past good moments become top of mind brands, when a new consumption decision is planned for sharing a new good moment with family, friends and relatives.

This is why we consider that one of the main features of the marketing campaign designed by Telepizza is the creation of new experiences around the ‘we were in one of those waiting two hours for having our pizzas’ or the ‘look this crazy people ready to wait longtime for their pizzas’.

Measuring the impact of this specific commercial decision in brand perception requires the perspective of time. We have proven that the marketing strategy has been a success in creating an unprecedented event, relayed by social media channels. This creates what we call this short term shock branding impact. Only time will tell us if this short but deep association of brand Telepizza to crowds around the restaurantes will keep alive in the future as part of Telepizza brand identity (reinforced in the future with similar movements).

In the menawhile, we can provide some inshights about the short term impact in Telepizza visual perception. We have scrutinized a representative selelection of images upload in all kind of supports in internet during these few last days. We weight again each image by the power and influence of the site publishing it.

We have all the components of the visual brand perception of Telepizza. As before, we present here only thos related with our case. More specifically, we presen here the presence of captions directly linked to the 29 February promotion. We have organized the imto two groups. One for images about crowds and people carrying several pizza boxes, and another one concerning de ad material used by Telepizza to annouonce the promotion.

We present in the following figure the relative presence of 29 February promotion images just after it happened, by 1st of March, and a second measurement just one week after the events, by 6th of March. In order to have terms of comparison, we show the size of images that are associated to ‘having a good time’ before 29 February, and referred to all captions, and not only the recent ones.

Results are self explaining. The share of images showing people eating or waiting for eating pizzas at Telepizza explode. Share of images showing crowds by 1st March multiply by 4 the size of previous images about consumers in Telepizza images. Its weight further increase when considering images uploaded one week after. They represent some 7 times more images than the normal percpetion of Telepizza. The visual short term imapct of the promotion is reinforced by the images referring to the extraordinary prize offer.

The short term image of Telepizza as ‘we are having a good time’ brand is higher than any other competitor, including 100 Montaditos and KFC.

 

Media Influence. A Twitter Based Measure. Case Urdangarin. Allegations of Corruption Against Son-in-Law of King Juan Carlos of Spain

In this post we propose an indirect way to measure influence of news providers. We use Twitter as filtering criteria.

There are plenty of mechanisms, approaches and rankings concerning the most influential newspapers or news providers. Online difussion and social media proliferation is probably making these kind of analysis more difficult to achieve and less reliable. It is difficult to establish the weight and influence of online and offline editions of news providers like newspapers, radio stations, TV broadcasters and pure digital medial like blogs or pure online newspapers.

We propose here an indirect measure of influence of news providers from any source. The idea is to check which are the news providers used by Twitter users to refer to external sources for explaining or interpreting an event. Of course, this means that this restrict the analysis to only online editions of news providers, and not the original offline content, if existing. This means that the measure that we are proposing contain a number of caveats and limitations. But we consider that they do not undermine nevertheless the validity of the underlying intution: in a tweet, an user is constricted to choose a single external source, if any. Referring to an analysis or news offered by a news provider is a way taken by the Twitter user to show her position in the issue, and to share it with her followers and Twitter community. By picking this news provider, the Twitter user is showing trust and credibility to this chosen source. She is also expanding the area of influence of this news provider, as she is making it accessible to other Twitter users.

Thus, a way to measure which are the external references preferred by active social media users is to monitor news providers that have been used by Twitter users as external references during the period of time that an event or issue was active in social media arena, i.e., the event received a sustained amount of tweets inside this period of time.

Applied Case: Iñaki Urdangarín Hearings for Allegations of Fraud

Iñaki Urdangarín is married with Princess Cristina, duaghter of King of Spain Juan Carlos. He has been asked to testify by 25 February 2012, in the framework of an ongoing judicial case of corruption and fraud of public funds by some Government representatives in Balearic Islands region in Spain. Instituto Noos, ruled by Iñaki Urdangarín and others benefited from public contracts suspected to be fraudulent.

This is an extremeny harmful case as reputation crisis for Iñaki Urdangarín and his wife, but also to all Royal Family, and eventually to the monarchy as ruling institution. It is a highly sensitive issue, that has received a notorious media coverage in Spain, even before that any formal accusation had been made against Mr. Urdangarín, Duke of Palma.

Questioning by the judge was openned by 9am local time, and was stopped by 9pm. It will be continued by Sunday 26 February 2012.

We show below the figure concerning the media from any kind that had been cited as reference and link to Twitter messages from 7am to 12pm, 25 February 2012.

Our results show that the leading reference for the coverage of Iñaki Urdangarín hearings was elpais.com, linked to one of main newspapers in Spain, El Pais. Their news appeared as link in 598 different tweets.

Second news provider was publico.es. The offline reference is left oriented newspaper Público. This newspapers was closed just one day ago due to the economic crisis. The online version of it will persist.

Third media reference is elmundo.es, from the newspaper El Mundo, another leading newspaper in Spain.

We find that forth position th online edition of a radio station, cadenaser.com, for Cadena SER. This radio station pertains to the same group than El País, the Grupo PRISA.

Twitter Elections Barometer: Spanish Socialist Party Primary Elections: Carme Chacon Vs Alfredo Rubalcaba

Twitter as tool for political analysis

Twitter analysis is becoming a source of knowledge in many areas. Right now many scientists and professionals are using it for better understanding and measuring corporate and institutional reputation. There are also attempts to monitor election processes through Twitter analysis.

This kind of studies are perfectly in line with all our empirical studies based in news measurement and content analysis, applied to the field of sport brands (Economics, Sport and Intangibles research group, ESI), and more widely, to companies and politics (Media, Reputation and Intangibles center, MRI).

A tweet, and tweet content analysis has its own rules and social community rules, but it share some points in common with news and news content analysis. Both news and tweets are a defined and closed unit of information. Both come from free and open sources and (normally) can be reached by all (specially if we refer to the online version of newspapers news).  A tweet has its own specificities, mainly derived from the restriction to a message of 140 characters max.

We like Twitter as source of reputation analysis. We like it a lot. We consider it a relevant tool.

As for political analysis, the utility of Twitter has to be demonstrated. In previous analysis run by our MRI center, we find that news were a good predictor of elections outcome in Spanish General Elections, 2008. It was also a correct tool to predict voting preferences in United States 2008 Presidential Elections.

As mentioned, Twitter is being used by scientists and practitioners in political analysis. For instance, Spanish newspaper Publico showed the live evolution of presence in Twitter of all candidates.

Twitter and PSOE Primary Elections

We present in this post our results concerning Twitter analysis of an ongoing electoral process. It refers to the election in Spain of the new leader of the main party in the opposition, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE). There are right now two official pre-candidates counting with a sufficient number of party elector endorsement. This is Alfredo P. Rubalcaba (61 years old) and Ms Carme Chacón (41 years old).

We feel that Twitter is well adapted to provide relevant information in a primary election context, as the problem of ideological bias inside the Twitter community tend to vanish, as both candidates come from the same party and share basically similar political principles. People in Twitter interested in PSOE electoral process (PSOE voters or supporters as well as people disliking PSOE) show their preferences by referring to the candidates. The same can be said about the current US republican primary elections.

Of course, number of tweets where a politician is mentioned is not a direct measure of political power and voting intention. Many people, specially inside the Twitter community, post messages for attacking or mocking a political rival rather than for supporting it. But, whatever the content of a tweet is positive or negative, a tweet becomes a measure of political influence. If you are not politically relevant, you will no receive attention from Twitter users, outside the set of your direct followers. Quantity of tweets shows influence, quality of tweets shows reputation. This is why number of tweets can provide information about political power and eventually about voting expectations.

It is true that Twitter political barometer cannot be translated into election winning odds, at least in the PSOE primaries, as voting is not made available to all Socialist Party voters, but only to a small number of electors, who can choose the candidate freely and not based in public opinion preferences.

Twitter Political Barometer: Daily Political Trend

In any case, we show in this post the evolution of the presence of both Socialist candidates since the end of December 2011, when the electoral process started.

The figures that we provide contain a basic but crucial correction of data that it is not usually performed by other analysts (like the measure provided by newspaper Publico). We exclude from our analysis all tweets mentioning both candidates, and we retain only those talking exclusively about Rubalcaba or Chacón alone.

We provided a first measurement two weeks ago, published in MRI Universidad de Navarra site. There we commented the results for a Spanish audience. As we present here the results to international readers (only 5% of this blog readers come from Spain), we do not comment the political reasons of the ups and downs of each candidates. We simply point out here that the Twitter momentum of each candidate can be explained by specific events.

The way we present the results are as follow: a value 50 means that each candidate is receiving during the last 24 hours the same amount of tweets. Values above 50 means that Rubalcaba is more present than Chacón in Twitter. Reaching a value of 100 means that all tweets referred to Rubalcaba in the previous 24 hours, while a value 0 means that all messages went to Chacón.

Our analysis shows that Carme Chacon is leading the race since mid January. The only exception is last week-end tweeting coverage to the formal support given by former Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez to Alfredo Rubalcaba. This prevalence faded away quickly, and right now Chacon is again the main reference in Twitter.

As many Twitter analysis say, tweets are nourished mainly by information created by traditional news provider, and not by content genuinely emerging from Twitter community. One singular exception are trending topics (TT) not related with news. In this sense, even the Twitter CEO, Dick Costolo, stated recently that Twitter is not a media company:

‘We don’t create our own content; we’re a distributor of content and traffic. We’re one of the largest drivers of traffic to other media properties, [namely] to other online web properties, even to films’

Mashable Social Media, 31 January 2012

But the evolution of this time series provides also information produced by Twitter. It shows how Twitter community reacts to different news and events related with the candidates and the primary campaign. Peaks, their value and comparison with other peaks is telling us how relevant the Twitter community considers that any single event is, and how it influences the election race.

As the present case refers to a local political event we do not explain each single event behind the news and thereafter its impact on tweets for each candidate. But readers familiar with the PSOE electoral campaign can appreciate and evaluate the impact of the different political movements made by each camp, Rubalcaba and Chacón.

Twitter Political Barometer: Political Intensity Index

We provide a second measure. This new one refers to the degree of interest that Twitter community shows concerning the PSOE electoral process.

The second figure shows a composite measure of the number of tweets about Alfredo Rubalcaba or Carme Chacón, in a 24h basis.

This is of course a relevant complementary measure to the first one that presented the political candidate leading the race in terms of share of news by day. It is important to know the intensity of the debate and its evolution in time for assessing the impact of the campaign for the political interests of each candidate.

A value 1.0 corresponds to the average degree of tweets per day published during the time period. values bigger than 1 mean that in that moment Twitter users are talking more about one or both candidates than in the average trend during the campaign.

According to our results, top Twitter momentum of the political campaign up to now was reached by 8 January 2012, when one of the contenders, Carme Chacón, officially launched her bid as candidate for leading the Spanish Socialist party. Twitter messaging was at that moment four times higher than average. When Alfredo P. Rubalcaba presented his candidacy, Twitter Political Intensity Index reached a value of 1.2, ten days before his rival.

We are observing an increase of interest during this last week. By the end of January the Index took value 1.7. Nevertheless, we are not observing yet an explosion of interest inside Twitter community, not that the campaign is reaching its final stages before voting takes place.

Twitter Political Barometer: Overall Impact Index

The last measure we want to present in this post is somehow a combination of two previous measures.

We present an Overall Impact Index of each candidate in Twitter. The basis of this measure is the sum of all tweets received by each candidate since the start of the political fight, day by day. This time, we exclude again the tweets where both candidates were mentioned. We calculate the percentage of all tweets going to Rubalcaba and Chacon. Of course, sum of both gives value 1. Also, as we follow just two candidates, we have a symmetric evolution.

We have introduced a correction in the data, giving a smaller weight to older tweets. Our aim is to show the present perception of who is commanding now the race inside the Twitter community. Recent tweets have now a bigger impact that tweets published one week or one month ago.

We find that right now Chacon is leading the race, with 55% of all tweets since the start of the campaign. She became the main reference in Twitter since she announced officially her program to become the new leader of the Socialist Party, by 8 January 2012.

Alfredo P. Rubalcaba was the leading reference in Twitter between December 29 2011 and January 7 2012. This corresponds to the interval where he announced officially his candidacy, and when he questioned the adjustment program proposed by Mariano Rajoy’s conservative government.

During the last week covered in this graph, Carme Chacón maintains her advance in a rather steady path. There was an upward trend favorable to Alfredo Rubalcaba around January 25, but this trend has reversed again in favor of Chacón.

Twitter Political Barometer: How Powerful Is PSOE Third Way?

Like in other primary voting process, there are at this PSOE primaries some party members who present their candidacy to become the party leader, ahead from mainstream candidates.

Mainstream candidates are Alfredo P. Rubalcaba and Carme Chacón. Alfredo P. Rubalcaba was Vice-president in the previous socialist government with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. He fighted against Mariano Rajoy as Prime Minister candidates in the 20 November 2011 elections that his party finally lost. Carme Chacón was Defense Minister in Zapatero’s government. She renounced to assume the leadership in past elections. Both are the current reference in the Socialist party.

Besides these two natural leaders, the outliers that emerged and announced their intention to become a candidate were, among others, Emiliano García-Page and Antonio Quero.

Emiliano García-Page is the major of Toledo, young and promising politician. After launching several proposals and contacts, he recently renounce to present as candidate and endorsed Afredo P. Rubalcaba project a couple of days ago.

Antonio Quero is a civil servant in Brussels European institutions. He presents himself as a third way, rooted in a more participative basis. He has received support from movement ‘Bases en Red’. He affirms that he counts with some 10% of electors endorsements. The minimum required to formally become a candidate is 20%.

As we argued above that presence in Twitter can be seen as a measure of political influence, we propose to use this tool in order to show how relevant are García-Page and Antonio Quero among Twitter users.

We have been monitoring their presence in Twitter altogether with main candidates Rubalcaba and Chacón.

We present below our results.

We compare the presence of ‘third way’ candidates to the sum of tweet for mainstream Rubalcaba and Chacón. Our results are undisputable: both Quero and García-Page have played a marginal role in the primaries process inside Twitter community. Antonio Quero captured 1.4% tweets about the primaries, Emiliano García-Page another 1.0%. The overwhelming remaining 97.6% went to both Rubalcaba and Chacón.

If these results mean something, we expect that Quero will obtain far less than the 10% of total endorsements that he is claiming to have.

We close the analysis of this issue by focusing the results in the last and decisive week. Social media impact and visibility during the week preceding the nomination congress provides information about the trend and political chances of an emerging unexpected surprise.

Again our data shows that Antonio Quero is not perceived inside Twitter community as a relevant alternative, as his weights decreases to a mere 1.0% of total weekly tweets, even lower than the attention gathered during the whole electoral period.

It is true that, as political precedent, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero became the PSOE leader as a surprise, as he was not mainstream and popular candidate before the congress. But we feel that this time Twitter says us that such an unexpected last minute reversion of favoritism is not plausible.

PS: Antonio Quero announced in the first day of nomination Congress, by Friday night, his decision to abandon the race as candidate, before the deadline for presenting the required endorsements was closed.

Addendum 1: The impact of ‘Chacón es Zapatero con faldas’

Today, Friday 3 February the PSOE Congress opens. During this week-end the electors will choose their new leader.

Yesterday, one of the Socialist Party barons, Juan Carlos Rodríguez Ibarra, former President of the Extremadura region pointed out in an radio interview at RNE that contender Carme Chacón was someone like Zapatero, but with a skirt. (‘Carme Chacón es como Zapatero pero con faldas’). This was probably meant to show that Chacón will follow the same social and economic model that the one proposed by former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Elements of this model is currently highly criticised by many, even inside the Socialist Party, and is considered the source of the unprecedented electoral failure suffered by PSOE in 20 November 2011 general elections.

Whatever the intentions pursued by R. Ibarra, many people have considered this statement as unlucky, deplorable (Marcelino Iglesias) or even outrageous because its sexist profile. General perception by Twitter is also negative.

We propose a measurement of the impact of this statement in Twitter. This event can be considered as a political communication mistake, as the ‘attack’ to Chacón was launched by a supporter of Alfredo P. Rubalcaba (male), but its general negative reaction provides new support to Carme Chacón as women leader.

We want to assess the impact of Ibarra remarks in Carme Chacón visibility in Twitter in these crucial hours just before the final voting, which is announced to be very tight.

The figure shows the share of all tweets about Rubalcaba or Chacón going to Carme Chacón. This is an 8 hours average value. A value above 50% shows that Chacón is winning in number of tweets.

Ibarra remark came by 2 February in the afternoon.

Our results show that just before that moment, Rubalcaba was gaining momentum, and Chacón counted with 60% of all tweets. Since the remarks spread in Twitter, Chacón increased her presence up to almost 80-20 share. This morning, its presence moves between 60 and 75% of tweets.

If we exclude references to Ibarra and the skirts, Rubalcaba was managing to become the reference  as Chacón values decreased even to 45%.

Addendum 2: Rubalcaba and Chacón in the Twitter just before nomination

I am publishing this new section by Saturday 4 February 2012, 11h30 am (CET), just a couple of hours before voting and the nomination of the new leader (Secretario General) of PSOE takes place. Apparently, nobody can right now predict who will win, as number of endorsements are similar. Both camps claim right now that they count with the majority of votes.

We present here the track of the presence of both candidates in Twitter in the crucial stage of the nomination process. The PSOE Congress started yesterday, Friday 3 February. In the following figure we present the share of tweets reached by each candidate, day by day since 1 February, up to today 4 February, at 10 am.

Our results show that Carme Chacón has increased substantially her advance in the crucial last days of the electoral process. Remember that the distribution during the whole electoral process was Chacón 55% and Rubalcaba 45%. In the final four days the ratio in Twitter turns practically to a 4:1 for Chacón against Rubalcaba. 75.1% of all tweets refer to Carme Chacón, while 24.9% talk about Alfredo P. Rubalcaba.

In next figure we present the share of tweets for each candidate, day by day since February 1st. We show also the evolution of the intensity of the debate (by the size of the bars, as value 100 means the average number of daily Tweets during these last four days). In all cases, Carme Chacón completely dominates the Twitter debate, as she moves between 73% and 79% of all daily tweets.

Addedum 3: Epilogue (up to now)

PSOE delegates elected new party leader (Secretario General) last Saturday February 4. Voting took place by 2pm, after both Carme Chacón and Alfredo P. Rubalcaba delivered their programmatic speeches. Result was expected to be announced by 4ph, but it was delayed for 90 minutes. Apparently, the result was so tight, that al least one recount of votes was needed.

Alfredo P. Rubalcaba was elected with 487 votes. His rival, Carme Chacón, received 465 votes. There were other 3 votes. This means that Rubalcaba got 51% of support. Even if this is a joke (but a true no fake photo), the following photo is an explanation by Rubalcaba to parliamentary Rosa Díez (Feb 6) about how he did to win the elections. It reflects how dramatic was the election process and the importance of last minute negotiations to capture those decisive 11 votes.

We close our analysis of this post by presenting the evolution of Twitter presence of both candidates during the 38 PSOE Congress.

First figure refers to daily timeline during the week of the Congress. We take value 1 for the average daily presence of both candidates during the five days previous to the Congress. It started by Friday 3 February.

As already identified in previous figures in this post, Carme Chacón become the reference in Twitter and had a comfortable advance as the Congress commenced. As expected, social media attention exploded in the elction day (Saturday 4 February), as the index took value 11. Both candidates are followed with the same intensity.

Once Rubalcaba becomes the new leader, Twitter attention turns as expected to Rubalcaba. Sunday 5 February was the Twitter aftermath of the election, and was also the day that the Congress devoted to define the new political guidelines. Twitter media attention decreased to 3.4 points for Rubacaba and 1.5 points for Chacón.

We observe that Twitter relevance of Carme Chacón is vanishing rapidly since her defeat.

Election day was the crucial day and the one that captured by far the most social media attention. We present in the following figure a focus of Twitter activity during Saturday 4 February 2012.

We present hourly based measures. Now, value 1 is the average number of news received by both candidates in average during the five days before the elective Congress. They refer to tweets about one of the candidates not mentioning the other one.

Rubalcaba delivered first his programmatic speech. Of course, during his speech (by 12h) he became the reference in Twitter above Chacón. Then came Carme Chacón speech. It created almost three times more tweets than during his rival speech, reaching an index value of 1200 points. In terms of social media impact, Carme Chacón benefited from presenting in second place. Our results show that the presenting order is a very relevant issue for social media impact. Nevertheless, in this case this impact was not determinant, was voting was closed to party electors.

Communication of the winner of the election came by 17h25. Of course, this was translated into an explosion of tweets, that propelled Rubalcaba presence in Twitter to a daily maximum of 1470 points. Beaten rival received 470 points of attention in Twitter. Twitter messaging dropped quickly, in a matter of less than 2 hours.

Social Media in Bin Laden News: Twitter, Facebook, Youtube and Google

In this third post about Bin Laden death media coverage, we show some results concerning one of the issues that becomes gradually more relevant each time that a major event or crisis occur: references to social media by traditional news providers, the newspapers.

Each event has its own characteristics influencing the role that different social media channels can play. Time evolution and spacial scope is definetively different in recent events with massive media impact like Japan earthquake and tsunami, Fukushima nuclear crisis, Tunisia, Egypt and Lybia revolts, Prince William and Kate royal wedding, John Paul II beatification, and now, Bin Laden death by US troops. it is arguably that these difference in space and time impact have also an influence on the utility of social media.

Bin Laden killing operation is an event with massive media impact, but the origin of the enws was extremely concentrated in time and space. Virtually no place for amateur live captures of the event. This is why uncoscient live tweets of the event by the right now social media star Sohaib Athar, an IT consultant received global media exposure.

Whata about the presence of social media tools and channels in portraying Bin Laden crisis?

Social media are not comparable as they produce each one of the very different outputs: messages, videos, photographs, text and comments. A way to provide an indirect common measure of theire relative relevance is to check their presence in traditional news channels, that is news published by newspapers.

We show below our results using this approach.

Our answer is clear: the game has been won by Twitter. Results refer to global media coverage all over the world. They capture a 58% share of all references to social media. Second reference is Facebook, with 29%, less than half than Twitter. Google takes another 9%. 4% goes to Youtube. Analysis is made with the information from some 13.000 different news mentioning the social media channels in relation with Bin Laden death media coverage, up to May 3.

We analyze in the following figure the share of media reference of Twitter by regions of the world.

Major dominance is in Latin American countries, as 68% of all news references to social media are about Twitter. Lowest level is reached in African countries, with a share of 40.5%. Media from countries with muslim predominance refer to Twitter in a 44.2% share.

Next figure shows the share of each social media tool in two main media markets: Europe and North America (ex Mexico). By comparison, Facebook has more power in North America than in Europe. Both regions are balanced concerning the use of Twitter. Google and Youtube are most widely referenced by media in Europe.

Final figure shows time evolution of the share of worldwide media references to each one of the social media players. Our results show a very stable path concerning the relative power of each one of the channels mentioned by traditional media. We can appreacite a slighly upward trend concerning the share of Facebook, and downwards trend for Google.