Greg Karber vs Abercrombie & Fitch: The Viral Ingredients of a Serious Reputation Crisis – #FitchTheHomeless

The origin of the crisis

The reputation crisis for Abercrombie & Fitch emerged at the beginning of May 2013. Interestingly enough, this crisis is not created by any recent mistake: it exploded after the reprint of an old 2006 interview with A&F CEO Mike Jeffries.

Here the original statements as published by Salon:

For example, when I ask him how important sex and sexual attraction are in what he calls the “emotional experience” he creates for his customers, he says, “It’s almost everything. That’s why we hire good-looking people in our stores. Because good-looking people attract other good-looking people, and we want to market to cool, good-looking people. We don’t market to anyone other than that.”

(…)

As far as Jeffries is concerned, America’s unattractive, overweight or otherwise undesirable teens can shop elsewhere. “In every school there are the cool and popular kids, and then there are the not-so-cool kids,” he says. “Candidly, we go after the cool kids. We go after the attractive all-American kid with a great attitude and a lot of friends. A lot of people don’t belong [in our clothes], and they can’t belong. Are we exclusionary? Absolutely. Those companies that are in trouble are trying to target everybody: young, old, fat, skinny. But then you become totally vanilla. You don’t alienate anybody, but you don’t excite anybody, either.”

‘The man behind Abercrombie & Fitch’, Salon, January 24, 2006

This now again outraging statement was recovered by Ashley Lutz at Business Insider by May 3, 2013. This time, this was the unique topic of the article: ‘Abercrombie & Fitch Refuses To Make Clothes For Large Women’ (Business Inside article here). The crisis started there. Some other media reacted, like The Huffington Post (May 9, 2013), increasing thus the social buzz.

This prompted also a petition channelled through Change.org by Benjamin O’Keeffe, asking A&F CEO for ‘Stop telling teens they aren’t beautiful; make clothes for teens of all sizes!’. It was launched by 9 May. One week after it counted with some 20,000 signatures collected (Petition here).

This was already a reputation crisis. There was some reation in the social media, but this was not really a hot topic… till USC recent graduate student Greg Karber had an idea, and put it into practice with friends James DeLorean and Daniel Lisi: they designed a call to action, they told their story and proposal in a home made 150 seconds Youtube video. They uploaded it by May 13 2013… and two day later it has 1,5 million views and counting, as it is in the midst fo the viral development.

The really amazing part of this viral success story is that Greg Karber was nothing like a Youtube/social media star. He had less than 1,000 followers in Twitter. He had his Youtube channel, but they received in average just some hundreds of views, with some ‘stellar’ hits reaching less than 10,000 views.

We want to show in this post some metrics about the social media impact of this initiative. We want to discuss also which are the core viral ingredients of this case.

We present first the viral video.

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Some metrics about the viral difusion

As we have pointed out in some previous analysis, Youtube suffers from a serious weackness in providing live updates about video viewings. Youtube updates the information only few times a day. This is an irrelevant issue in almost all cases, as people are not interested in minute-to-minute evolution of viewings. But this is a major caveat from Youtube for providing useful information about viral development of videos. Virality is typically a matter of a couple of days. Hour-to-hour reliable data is essential to assess the extent of the virality process. Really, Youtube should consider serious improvements here in order to provide more valuable information for brands and corporations. The analysis of virality is essential in the context of crisis management.

As in previous cases (like ‘Gentleman by PSY dynamics’), instead of using information about views, we provide the dynamics of comments and likes, which provide accurate ad live update metrics.

Before presenting Youtube metrics, we show the viral difusion in Twitter, a key social media channel for creating viral stories.

We show in the following figure the number of mentions of the campaign labelled as #Fitchthehomeless.

We show Central European Time (CET) data.

The video was uploaded by May 13. Mentions in Twitter were irrelevant till the beginning of the afternoon of May 14, Pacific Time (18h CET). The video and the campaign became trendy by the evening of May 14. The drop of intensity of mentions after the first peak reflects that this viral dynamics in mainly feeded by US Twitter users: the controversy has reached Europe and Asia, but it is not yet a major issue there.

The figure shows also that the current corporate crisis in still in the upward trend, as May 15 peak (around  300 points) is higher than the one reached in the previous day (200 points). We will see if we reach a new maximum in May 16 or not.

abercrombie crisis analysis viral mentions twitter fitchthehomeless newsreputation mri may 2013

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We put the aggregate daily numbers in the following figure. May 15 was a massive nightmare for Abercrombie & Fitch reputation interests, in comparison with numbers got in the previous day.

fitchthehomeless campaign vs abercombrie fitch virality twitter measurement 16 may 2013 grag kabler

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(update May 17 2013)

Some data about the impact of the Youtube video views.

First figure shows the total number of days. Four days after launch, the video has reached 6 million views.

Abercrombie & Fitch corporate crisis homeless burning youtube video views analysis fitchthehomeless may 2013

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In the following figure we show the number of views per day. Peak of the viral crisis was reached by May 16, with more than 3 million views. Data from May 17 is incomplete, but end of the day figures will show a 50% decrease from the day before.

As in almost every single viral crisis, peak of intensity of diffusion is reached within the first 2-3 days. Damage control for companies requires them to take a public opinion decision as soon as possible if the company hopes to have some voice during the social media turmoil.

Abercrombie & Fitch reputation crisis large women youtube video views stats fitchthehomeless may 2013

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We provide complementary data in the following figure, where we shoe the number of likes received by the video per hour. As explained, for hourly measurements, this data is more reliable than number of views. It shows a similar picture than the one emerging from the first figure of this post (related to number of tweets): intensity of Youtube likes increase during US working hours; it decreases when it moves to European working time.

Abercrombie & Fitch reputation crisis viral video youtube impact analysis may 2013 #fitchthehomeless

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How relevant are these 6 million views of an extremely damaging video for Abercrombie & Fitch brand reputation?

Right now, this video is already the third most popular in Youtube concerning the brand Abercrombie & Fitch. Number one is produced by A&F showing well-looking male models in A&F stores, with 20 million views. Number 2 is a parody by mad TV, with 10 million views. Even if being a parody of A&F shopping experience, it can be considered as neutral for the company insterests.

This means that the #FitchTheHomeless video is tarnishing in a very substantial way the quality of the portfolio of videos about Abercrombie & Fitch in Youtube.

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This is for sure a big crisis in terms of impact measured by number of people watching the video.

Next step is to asses how people are reacting when watching the incriminatory video. As Abercrombie & Fitch is a loved brand (A&F Facebook official page has more than 7,5 million fans), you could expect than many viewers could react defending their brand against accusations. The best direct way to measure reaction by viewers is the liking ratio. We present the resuls below.

Four days after launch and with more than 6 million views, the liking ratio is as high as 95.8% of all votes. Only four percent of people voted a ‘dislike’ reaction after watching the video.

This is a massive support for Greg Karber’s initiative and inflicts a severe reputation damage to Abercrombie & Fitch: almost everyone watching the video suscribe Karber’s analysis, attacks and call to boycott the brand.

fitchthehomeless analysis reputation crisis abercrombie fitch youtube liking ratio metrics may 2013

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This high degree of support to the critical video against A&F ranks this initative among top brand critical and brandjacking popular videos. We present in annex to this post a list of some of the most popular brand critical videos.

 

The main ingredients of this viral story

Every single case in viral dynamics is an unique story. This implies that, almost by definition, a viral process cannot be replicated. This is for me the main lesson I get from the quantitative analysis I made of a relevant number of viral cases. This is not what marketing and advertising agencies and consulting firms use to say to clients. I am curious to know how many times an advertising and marketing company can promise to create a viral marketing campaign. Only by exception successful viral developments have been created by professionals of marketing and advertising.

Here we have again a case that has been created by an anonymous guy with a couple of friends. This is how Greg Karper tells his story:

The video has already drawn more than 1 million views. That is impressive, Karper said, considering that another of his recent YouTube videos received just 71 views.

“I’m really not equipped to deal with this kind of phenomenon,” he said. “When I made the video I thought it would maybe spark a conversation. I didn’t expect this.”

Karper said he spent about $70 or $80 on the second-hand clothing. But he hoped the “relatively small investment will lead to an outpouring of donations.”

‘Man hands out Abercrombie clothes on skid row in bid to shame brand’,  W.J. Hennigan, Los Angeles Times, May 15 2013

This entire story is clearly far away from any marketing strategy perfectly designed by a powerful and creative team from a top advertising agency. Nevertheless, this is truly a perfect viral marketing strategy. At a 70-80$ cost, plus some hours of work for creating the video.

The most striking element of this huge viral crisis is that it has been created and launched by a really little David ready to fight against a really powerful Goliath. Consider that the perimeter of influence of Greg Karper was really limited. By May 15 he counted with some 1,400 followers in Twitter. For sure, the vast majority of them were gained between 14 and 15 May. Clearly, a bunch of twitter followers is not the perfect platform for launching a ‘massive reputation crisis attack’ against a big and respected corporation. But it worked.

Each viral case is one in a kind. This new case is an additional proof that in the age of the social media, there is no ‘to big to fail’ corporate brands. Any powerful brand may be confronted by serious reputational crisis designed by anonymous people. This kind of initiative would have been harmless for corporate interests in the pre social media era. My guess is that many top managers in powerful corporations still believe and behave as if they were under pre social media rules. They don’t apply anymore.

Ingredient 1: There is an open issue

#Fitchthehomeless did not create the A&F reputation crisis. They just amplified it. The crisis was latent since 2006. It was activated by the Business Insider article at the beginning of May 2013. It was sustained by other critical news appearances and the absence of reaction of A&F CEO or representatives. It entered into the social media activism through Change.org petition. And it finally exploded with the #Fitchthehomeless Youtube video. Like in nature, the virus needs an appropriate broth to become pandemic.

Ingredient 2: Provide a new twist in the controversy

The main focus of the crisis prior to the video was linked to the fact that Abercrombie & Fitch does not sell XXL size clothes, as a branding strategy. Both the articles in the news and the Change.org petition were oriented towards forcing A&F to reconsider this strategy, as it channeled very negative messages to large women.

Greg Karber introduced a new element, less present in the social conversation: Abercrombie & Fitch shows also a really terrible SCR profile, as they want that only wealthy looking people wear their products. Below is the caption of a news reference included in the Youtube video.

abercrombie and the homeless controversy says it would rather born clothes than give them to poor people news

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References to these practices appeared in some secondary sources, as old as by 2010 (see for instance Gather Business, November 12, 2010). This practice is apparently followed by other fashion firms, but the link with poor people was not made in such an explicit way. H&M suffered a similar crisis and announced by 2010 that they would stop burning unworn clothing (New York Times, January 6, 2010).

So, Greg Karber took advantage of the ongoing criticism against A&F corporate practices, and recovered another old ‘dormant’ issue, in order to create a lethal new recombined virus. He ‘just’ needed to feed the story in order to ensure viral diffusion. This is ingredient 3.

Ingredient 3: Tell me a story easy to understand and to watch

A good story is a clear and well explained story. This is the case. We have the ugly and powerful villain (Abercrombie policies, CEO statements). The video depicts how repugnant and abject the evil side is. This is reinforced by insisting that the company is extremely proud in following practices that are shown as awful by the narrator.

Then comes the mission. The ordinary Mr. Everybody man realizes that has received a call. An overwhelming and disproportionate call: he will kill the terrible and mighty dragon. He alone, without weapons, without money, without influence, without any particular skill. And the answer he gives is YES, here I am, ready to fight against the impossible… and ready to win.  ”Today, we are going to change their brand”.

Then we follow the unexpected hero in his adventures. We see him taking his audacious decision; he reacts and starts his trip towards the unknown. We will see him looking for alliances with other powerless homeless heroes; even there he will suffer setbacks making him doubt about the sense of his mission (‘at first, people were reluctant to accept the clothes”). Suddenly, the trend of the story changed: (“My expedition was a huge success”). Music and emotive images of transformation lead us to confirm that something new is emerging.

Mr Everybody hero won the first battle. Against all odds. But in order to kill the Monster and his mighty army, every Mr and Ms Everybody should rouse and join the popular army. all together may win the war: guerrilla will be the strategy. In a guerrilla framework, each militiaperson can inflict true damages to the regular army in the evil side. Now is the turn of everybody to react against the injustice: because there is a chance of victory, because the unexpected hero did it before you. This is the general call to arms speech:

But I am just one person

and I can’t clothe the homeless

and transform a brand by myself.

I’m going to need your help

so look to your closets, your friends’ closets

(…)

Together we can make Abercrombie & Fitch

The world’s number one brand

of homeless apparel

This is simply perfect storytelling. This also shows the power of storytelling in branding (here, branding a cause).

A powerful story is the key factor: content is king. Next step is not to damage its value. Good quality production is also needed. Karber and friends did a good job also there, as the video scenes are well chosen; they combine with external sources and images; and use a lot of helping-to-follow-the-story-text. This technique ensures that while watching the video, the key elements of the story are underlined. It also increases the ratio sharing/viewing: I can comfortably attach the Youtube video in my Facebook posts and tweets and strongly recommend viewing it because I know that it contains quality both in content and in form.

Ingredient 4: a clear and feasible call to action

The story is great, perfectly designed and executed. Now, it needs to be shared. As the initial sphere of Karper’s social media influence is very limited, the only chances of viral development are to count with an extremely high rate of sharing/viewing.

The design of a successful and viral call to action is an elusive art. If the cause is asking for a costly reaction, many allies will abandon. If the task imposed is too weak, respondents will consider that their individual mission and contribution is irrelevant and useless, and many will not react. The balance is extremely hard to obtain. I think that Greg Karber mastered in identifying the best possible call to action.

Here is how it is explained in the video:

how to help #fitchthehomeless call to action viral strategy

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The call to action is again simply perfect. This is the underlying mechanism:

If you are outraged as we are by the corporate policies followed by Abercrombie & Fitch then, why are you still wearing their clothing? If you do so, you belong in fact to the Evil Side.

We do not call you to a traditional boycott. This is not just about stop buying A&F products.

Why don’t we all use the enemy’s weapons against them?

If you just stop buying and wearing A&F casual and ‘exclusive’ product, the enemy will still remain as powerful as before. This would be a poor call to action: very costly for the individual, with limited corporate damages.

Instead, you can help us in breaking the rule that A&F is a brand used exclusively by well-looking and wealthy people. Give your A&F to people in need. #Fitchthehomeless

If you do so, you take a serious personal decision and commitment. You will be proud of it. But you can also become another Mr/Ms Everybody hero for others. Share your courageous and generous action with others. Let everybody know that the guerrilla is acting. That this is a powerful movement, and that it may become stronger if my friends and people connected in my social network know that I am taking action. I can play a relevant role in throwing away my A&F clothing and asking my friend to do so. Now you can do it, as you are in the social media. Share it. Make is viral. You can.

Ingredient 5: a call to action that contains the seeds of virality

#FitchTheHomeless initiative did also the best in ensuring the maximum level of sharing among viewers by additional elements, besides the main design of the call to action presented as Ingredient 4.

They chose a hashtag. Of course, this is a basic and very common practice. Here it federates all efforts into a single battle-cry. It provides visibility and creates branding around the boycott action.

It is telling everybody that action continues in the social media, especially in Twitter. Every tweet using #FitchTheHomeless fosters the social media conversation and spreads the impact of the movement to ever increasing circles.

The interesting thing of this call to action is that everyone can contribute in the guerrilla efforts even if not being Abercrombie & Fitch costumer. You can just share the message, share the video or simply react showing how outraged are you with A&F CEO’s remarks. The cost of a RT is almost null, but it has a positive effect in spreading the impact of the reputation crisis.

So, just liking the initiative is enough for joining the movement and contributing to its success by sharing the content in the social media network. The call to action contains the seeds of virality, because it allows different levels of personal contribution to the cause.

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Branding impact for Abercrombie & Fitch

Consider how damaging #FitchTheHomeless is for Abercrombie & Fitch if it really becomes viral (as it currently is).

#FitchTheHomeless is not calling directly to a boycott. Nobody can impose stopping this movement, as it is not calling for illegal actions. Karber is just proposing using used clothes for a social good-will purpose. Nobody can attack this for suggesting this use of used A&F clothes. (We will see later that this is nevertheless one of the open issues associated to this initiative).

Greg Kalber and friends hope that if the movement of A&F costumers giving their clothes to homeless and other people in need, an actual rebranding dynamics will emerge for Abercrombie. The fashion company won’t be perceived anymore as the perfect fashion brand for successful young people. Their aim is that this will push A&B board and management to reconsider their criticised policies.

The actual branding impact could definitively be much deeper and worse than that. This current social media crisis could dramatically modify the brand values associated to A&F. This is/was a very prestigious brand among many wealthy and educated young people. From now on, even if you do not share #FitchTheHomeless action and you still love A&F design and aesthetics, you will be aware that many people will consider A&F as a non-ethical and discriminatory brand. Before the crisis, wearing A&F was a symbol of personal status and pride. After this crisis, many will feel embarrassed and ashamed by wearing something that many people will perceive as disgusting.

Really, if the #FitchTheHomeless action still widespreads and keep its momentum for a while, we will definitively assist to a terrible and lasting fall of fortune of an otherwise powerful and admired brand. Provoked by a 144 seconds Youtube video created by a less than 1,000 Twitter followers smart and outraged anonymous guy.

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Abercrombie & Fitch reaction to #FitchTheHomeless crisis

We have here also a very nice case to study. How to react to a burning crisis which is created by your own company CEO praising its own key branding strategy?

Of course, the tone used by the A&F CEO Mike Jeffries makes it easily disgusting. But, besides the tone, there is the content. You can easily acknowledge a mistake in the way you explain your branding strategy. But if you say that your actual branding strategy is wrong, you are forced to modify your business. If you believe that your branding strategy was the correct one making you unique, you may put your business at risk.

In the other side of the dilemma, if you do not provide some empathy with the critics and announce the revision of actual procedures, you allow the crisis to grow. Growing crisis impose severe and dramatic business decisions by their own force.

We have already an official reaction by A&F. It was published in the official A&F Facebook and linked in a tweet.

We rate this reaction as a fail.

Here the full statement

A note from Mike, our CEO:

 I want to address some of my comments that have been circulating from a 2006 interview. While I believe this 7 year old, resurrected quote has been taken out of context, I sincerely regret that my choice of words was interpreted in a manner that has caused offense. A&F is an aspirational brand that, like most specialty apparel brands, targets its marketing at a particular segment of customers. However, we care about the broader communities in which we operate and are strongly committed to diversity and inclusion. We hire good people who share these values. We are completely opposed to any discrimination, bullying, derogatory characterizations or other anti-social behavior based on race, gender, body type or other individual characteristics.

Abercrombie & Fitch official Facebook Page, May 15 2013

Instead of sharing our view about this statement, we select some tweets reacting to it.

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Or this terrible one

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Annex

Brand critical and brandjacking videos

#FitchTheHomeless is another milestone in Youtube history of successful videos created to attack brand or business practices.

We present below a sample of the more popular videos. We rank them not by the number of views received, but by the liking ratio. As all of them are videos explicitly critics towards the brand, the higher the liking ration, the bigger the reputational damage suffered by the company. In addition to this, the more the popular the video is, the larger the extent of the brand damage.

#1

United Breaks Guitars

By an anonymous customer

Liking ratio: 98%

Popularity: 13 million views

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#2

If Animals Would Eat at McDonalds

By a computer animation company

Liking ratio: 96.9%

Popularity: 1 million views

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#3

Abercrombie & Fitch Gets a Brand Readjustment #FitchTheHomeless

By an anonymous individual

Liking ratio: 95.8%

Popularity: 6,5 million views (by May 18, 2013)

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#4

Exxon Hates Your Children

By the activist group ‘The Other 98%’

Liking ratio: 95.2%

Popularity: 350,000 views

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#5

Koch Bros – It’s the evil thing

By the activist group ‘The Other 98%’

Liking ratio: 95%

Popularity: 150,000 views

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#6

Dove Onslaught(er)

By Greenpeace

Liking ratio: 94.7%

Popularity: 1.7 million views

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#7

FedEx Guy Throwing My Computer Monitor

By an anonymous customer (see also our crisis metrics analysis)

Liking ratio: 94%

Popularity: 9 million views

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#8

Have a break?

By Greenpeace UK

Liking ratio: 89.9%

Popularity: 600.000 views

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#9

Mcdonalds horror

By the author of documentary Super Size Me

Liking ratio: 89.5%

Popularity: 5.3 million views

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#10

 Barbie’s rainforest destruction habit REVEALED!

Liking ratio: 86.4%

Popularity: 1.7 million views

 

 

 

How Dzhokhar Tsarnaev (Jahar) friends reacted in Twitter when they learnt that he was Boston bombing suspect

(this post is connected to a previous analysis about the impact of the Twitter coverage made by @BostonGlobe. You can find it HERE).

Annex 3

This annex 3 is part of our Twitter analysis of Boston Marathon Bombing.

In annex 2 we presented our selection of relevant tweets published by Dzhokhar Tsarnaev in his Twitter account since January 2012 (access them here). They are not representative of his Twitter timeline. They capture only his thoughts about life and death, Chechnya, Islam. It includes some revealing tweets after the bombing.

In this post, we show a selection of tweets published by friends and people in contact with Jahar, as Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was known by friends.

In each case, we have included tweets corresponding to their reaction to the bombing. There are some surprising cases where no mention at all is made to the bombing, even if they tweeted by April 15.

The focus of this post is to show how each person has reacted in Twitter when realizing that ‘Suspect 2′ was teammate Jahar. As intense manhunt took some dramatic hours, friends had time to react many times in Twitter.

Beyond the personal approach followed by each person, the astonishing global picture is that tweets get a rather deep image of what the most inner feelings were experienced by each guy during the manhunt.

In our ‘Reputation Metrics’ site we have covered a wide variety of singular and sensitive issues, like Utoya massacre, Bin Laden Killing, Bill Clinton sexual misconduct reputation legacy, Fukushima Nuclear problems and media bias, Troy Davis death penalty.

In each single case, like this one, we have never presented our own position concerning the specific issue. Our goal is just to provide relevant measurement and metrics of each issue. Our thoughts about political or social issues are not interesting for readers or relevant for the analysis. We follow now the same rule. We present the content published by Jahar friends. This is not my content nor my own views and feelings.

Again, the goal of this post is to show how powerful is Twitter as social media channel for creating true social conversation.

A selection of tweets by people connected to Dzhokhar Tsarnaev Twitter account

Dzhokhar Tsarnaev jahar high school graduation with friends twitter analysis mri navarra

twitter tweets from jahar friends  Dzhokhar Tsarnaev boston marathon bombing april 2013

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(update 1st May 2013)

Three of Jahar’s friends have been arrested today. This is how @BostonGlobe has reported the case:

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One of the arrested young, Azamat Tazhayakov, has apparently a Twitter account.

This is his Twitter avatar

Azamat Tazhayakov twitter profile avatar jahar tsarnaev friend

He posted 183 tweets. Almost all of them not in English. He used Twitter in a very unregular way. His last tweet was published by 14 April 2013. Boston Marathon bombing happened a day after.

This is the tweet

Links to Instagram photos have been disabled. They correspond to the New York visit. The avatar image is of course taken from the NYC visit.

There are a couple of tweets with some double sense

Additionally, there is a web where you can find tweets by Robel Phillipos’ friends when they learn that his teammate is arrested.

Dzhokhar Tsarnaev may have tweeted about Boston bombing suspect Robel Phillipos; Twitter users ID before MSM’, Twitchy Media, 1 May 2013

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Samantha (plus her RT)

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Fat Boy TnL 4/20 (@JukeMeng)

Note fam: a word use to describe your peoples. ones that you can trust dearly. someone you consider family (Urban Dictionary)

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Rhane

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TnL 4/20 – Ace (@TheZooKid)

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BerlophaneEnzo

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AD (Ambitious_AD)

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GHOST (@ThePhilos0pher)

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2£xp|icit DBa!L£$

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Mr_Rogers12 (account deleted)

Tweet included in a New York Times analysis. One of first reaction identifying Suspect 2 as Jahal

https://twitter.com/Mr_Rogers12/status/325240037568565250/photo/1

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TnL 4/20 Monty ‏(@MonTanA_BaBy)

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Jordan ‏(@CoastSwag)

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Sienna Black

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Alex Gonzales  ‏(@Dutch_Master93)

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Kasie Corcoran ;-* ‏(@IntoxicateKas12)

One Billion Views for New Youtube Video by PSY? No. People Rather Dislike A Disgusting Gentleman M/V

PSY launched 13 April 2013 the highly awaited new production, after global Youtube mega hit ‘Gangnam Style’.

New Youtube video and song is ‘Gentleman M/V’.

As expected, number of views have exploded within the first hours after its launching. It broke the 20 million views just after 24h.

This is leading some to consider that PSY ‘has done it again’. IT is the Youtube blockbuster ‘Gangnam Style’. This was the first (and currently unique) single video to break the 1 billion views mark. By April 2013 it counts with more than 1.5 Billion views.

PSY team do also hope to repeat the smashing previous success (‘Psy hopes for another viral smash hit with Gangnam sequel’, CNN 13 April 2013).

In fact PSY team posted a comment in the official Youtube channel just one day after the release, by 14 April 2013. It was just a one word question:

Billion?

Our answer is NO.

We estimate that PSY Gentleman M/V will not reach the 1 billion views score.

We come to this this conclusion after the analysis of the open metrics provided by Youtube.

Behind the already expected spectacular number of views, we identify an overall rather poor to negative appraisal to the video.

We have monitored the trend of the like/dislike ratio within the first 24 hours.

As many people familiar with Youtube dynamics know, and as we have explained in our previous post about another Youtube hit (‘How Animals Eat Their Food, read it), initial figures about views provided by Youtube are not reliable.

But data about like and dislike clicks are updated instantaneously. They provide valuable information about initial reaction by viewers. The initial like/dislike ratio score and the tone of comments may have a strong influence on future viewers.

Figure below shows the results concerning the trend of the like ratio during the first 24 hours.

It started around a healthy 91.9% positive rating. This score corresponds actually to the overall rating that the ‘Gangnam Style’ video has by mid-April 2013.

This could be seen as no bad news. Apparently.

Consider that initial viewers correspond mainly to fans loving PSY performance and waiting anxiously for the new song-dance-rhythm-video. Taking this into account, we could consider not as a strong warm welcome.

And bad news came very soon. Just within a 24 hours period, the average liking ratio has dropped to 87.6%.

impact analysis psy youtube video gentleman mv degree of  liking disgusting 13 april 2013

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This is still not an awful acceptance rate. It’s true.

But the one day overall decrease in favour reflects that new viewers added to initial PSY unconditional fans are rating the video in a less favorable way.

This is what is showed in the following figure.

We have added the values corresponding to the marginal liking ratio (red line). It corresponds to the like/dislike ratio provided exclusively by the new viewers during the last segment of time.

Our results show a vivid negative change of trend some 20 hours after the release of the video. Since then, the marginal liking ratio moves around 80%.

Having 20% of negative votes is really a poor score. Remember that ‘Gangnam Style’ has a negative score of 8%.

metrics about new psy youtube video gentleman mv degree of acceptance liking 14 april 2013

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Of course, we still need to wait for additional data taken from the next days of people watching the video.

It is true that the present trend may change and come back into an upward more positive dynamics. But if we are asked to take a position, our forecast is that this new performance will not become a global mega hit to be remembered during the next months. Our forecast is that ‘Gentleman M/V’ will not reach 1 billion views. The initial 24h evidence should be enough to get this verdict.

Update (April 15 2013)

Gentleman video counts with more than 50 million views, well before its first 48 hours since release.

In the meantime, global ratings by viewers continue to deteriorate, in line with the underlying trend that we have shown above. Global positive rating moves from 87.6% (April 14) to 85.9% (April 15).

We present below updated date of the marginal negative rating.

It is currently reaching its worst valuation on record.

It can also be observed that the trend is not linear. According to the viewing hours, we have identified which is the geographical profile of people watching the video. We find that, in comparative values, viewers in Europe tend to show a more negative reaction than people in Asia. American viewers are somewhere in between.

Gentleman psy analysis ratings youtube viewers in asia and europe april 2013

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Update 2 (April 17 2013)

Europe Vs America-Asia

Wow! PSY got more than 100 million views in less than four days. This is probably an all-time record in Youtube.

Now, the ’1 Billion’ words are appearing here and there. This is fact for instance the core content of a new analysis published in Wall Street Journal (see it here).

We will come back later to viewing trends.

Now we want to present the updated data about the liking ratio, as it shows an astounding regularity.

Black line is the like/dislike ratio at any single moment. This is the number that everyone can find directly in Youtube. It shows the continuing deterioration of the overall liking ratio (from initial 91.4% to current 84.3% that we predicted using the data from the initial 26 hours.

Red line is the like/dislike ratio only within the current period of viewing and rating. This is a less obvious measure. It helps, as we have proven here, to forecast future trends of the global liking ratio.

We present the expanded results including 16 and 17 April observations because it shows a very rare undulation effect. The successive wages are completely systematic. Ups and downs follow a completely regular time-trend. It increases from 4pm Central European Time, it decreases from 8am Central European Time.

There is a consistent geographical oriented difference in tastes concerning ‘Gentleman’. There is a clear cultural cleavage concerning the reaction to PSY new product. Liking rating in Europe move around 78-80%, while in America-Asia it gets a 83-85% rate.

psy new song gentleman reaction attitude in asia europe and america mri navarra 13 17 april 2013

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The cultural difference in tastes may come from

a) The music

b) The aesthetics of the video

c) Difference degree of tolerance concerning the pranks by PSY towards women, that may be considered more in Europe than elsewhere as humiliating and showing sexism.

I think that the third explanation is the more relevant one.

Happy to know readers’ views about the explanation of causes of this cultural cleavage.

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A viral video? No. Massive Tsunami Dynamics

Now is April 20 2013. Just one week after ‘Gentleman’ release.

The video counts right now with 180 million views. Probably a world record.

This should be considered as the epitome of a viral video. I really do not consider this as being a viral video.

Virality in social media is tipically linked to discovery, surprise, extreme reactions, wether positive or negative. Diffusion pattern, is viral, implies a very fast dissemination of the video in the social media. This means that the viewing experience an exponential increase of viewing hour after hour. Exponential growth drives necessarily to a peak. Once reached, number of viewings per hours experience a similarly dramatic downturn. In viral context, total number of views that a video will obtain is mainly determined by the height reached by the peak day.

One characteristic present in all viral cases is that the video provokes extreme feelings: either everybody loves it, or everybody hate/blame it. This is the necessary energy for fuelling the video views, through an intense rate of social media recommendations.

Stop KONY 2012 was viral. Other examples

How Animals Eat Their Food (this is our previous post).

viral development in twitter of youtube video how animals eat their food mri navarra

Views of video ‘Guy Throwing My Computer Monitor’ (Our FedEx reputation crisis analysis here).

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Mice in a French fast food company, Quick France (reputation crisis analysis here)

Advert by Campofrío (in Spanish, here)

Publicidad campofrio navidad 2012 curriculum para todos vistas youtube

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To our understanding, this is not the case this time with ‘Gentleman’.

This time it could not be a discovery, as this was the new music video after everyone-knows hit ‘Gangnam Style’. Millions of people loving Gangnam were waiting expectant. This vast number of people knowing about and ready to watch as soon as they learned that the new video was released prevented the viewing to follow an initial reaction of ever increasing number of vieweing.

The second element missing in this case to make it following a viral trend was that the overall reaction was not warm. It went quickly below the 90% liking ratio. Many argue that this metric is not a relevant predictor of viewings (see for instance a very interesting and well data supported comment to this post).

It is true that in general liking ratio is no a good predictor for total views. But it is a good predictor for viral dynamics. (‘How Animals Eat Their Food’,  has a 98% positive ratio and its viral). Just having a 85-90% of positive ratings corresponds to mixed feelings. But the negative ratio is no big enough to become a highly controversial video (another channel for viral videos). And positive ratio is not strong enough to create a passionate social media recommendation.

Puting all pieces together, we expected to observe massive number of viewings during the first days. This video behaves like massive tsunami dynamics. When the wages strikes (release), it already provokes severe damages (views) from the very beginning (peak number of views from the release), and the force of the wages are mantained for a while (number of views decrease slowly day after day). If social media dissemination follows a massive tsunami path, total number of viewers is fixed by the height of the initial wage.

Massive tsunami corresponds typically to sequels. This happens with movies. With ‘Gentleman’ we had a sequel of a Youtube blockbuster.

Now, we present numbers.

Next figure present total views between 13 and 20 April. It seems like a linear increase.

gentleman PSY number of Youtube views evolution trend april 2013 mri navarra

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Detail is provided by day to day views.

Initial upward trend is not real. April 13 data corresponds just to 4 hours-time after launching, as it was presented in the evening (European time). 13 and 14 April data, which corresponds to 28 hours of viewing, reach the peak of viewings.

number of views by day of new gentleman psy video april 2013 one 1 billion

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Additional info corresponds to the evolution of comments per hour. This value is more exact than total views at the initial stages in Youtube.

It shows the ever continuing decrease of numbers from maximum values from the very beginning, at release.

The ups and downs correspond to geographic influence. It increase during European working hours; it decreases when mainly viewed in America and Asia.

psy gentleman PSY south korea comments youtube per hour april 2013 gangnam

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Our forecast: a maximum of 700 million views

For us, ‘Gentleman’ is not viral. It starts with the maximum value, and from that point, it decreases slowly (in comparison to viral processes).

This is good news for ‘Gentleman’ in the short run. As views erodes slowly, total number of views increase strongly day by day. This is how it has more than 180 million views in just a week.

‘Gangnam Style’ had at that time just 2 million views.

Comparing both figures and the growth rates, many are tempted to predict another more than one billion views video. Jeff Yang (WSJ) even estimated total number of views if ‘Gentleman’ followed ‘Gangnam Style’ dynamics from now on. It could eventually reach 12 billion views. It could, IF it was a viral video, as Gangnan was.

Gangnam was a matter of discovery in the different regions of the world, little by little, like viruses. This allowed Gangnam to experience sudden increases of the growth rate well after its release.

gentleman forecast of views by wall street journal 1 billion views analysis statistics failure success

It won’t happen again with Gentleman, as everybody knows about PSY.

Current decrease of viewings day after day, even if it goes smoothly, won’t be stopped. Like the tsunami. Like sequels.

With the one week data, we have estimated the trend we expect to observe in the future.

The figure below presents stylized trends for next year and a half. We consider three scenarios.

The blue line corresponds to the application of current dreceasing values. Gentleman would reach 400 million views. If we consider an optimistic scenario where current depreciation ratio is slowed soon, total views could reach 700 million views. An average scenario leads to 500 million views.

estimation forecast gentleman psy 700 million views no 1 billion reputation analysis

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With all the data and analysis in hand, we come again to the initial prediction we posed in this post one day after the release of the video: we do not expect ‘Gentleman’ to reach the 1 Billion mark.

Data by the end of April will tell us a lot. If the video gest more than 300 million views at that time, we will be moving around our optimistic scenario. If Gentleman beat by far the 3000 million mark, it will probably break my estimations.

Annex

Media reaction, analysis.

  • Will Psy’s New ‘Gentleman’ Be Another ‘Gangnam Style’?, Jeff Yang, Wall Street Journal, April 13 2013.
  • Psy Is No ‘Gentleman’ In New Music Video, Todd Gilchrist, MTV, April 13 2013
  • Psy Releases New Single – Does It Live Up to ‘Gangnam Style?’,Kristen Mascia, People, April 14 2013
  • Psy también triunfa con su nuevo videoclip en Youtube, El Mundo, April 13 2013
  • Why ‘Gentleman’ Could Be Psy’s Next Video to Break a Billion Views, Jeff Yang, Wall Street Journal, April 16 2013.

The Funniest Thing Ever? Some Metrics About Youtube Video ‘How Animals Eat Their Food’ by Mister Epic Mann

Mister Epic Mann, ‘one of a kind’, is one of these Youtube video channels run by anonymous amateur people wanting to create new content. Many hope to become Youtube stars. Only few of them reach their goal.

Apparently, Mister Epic Mann is becoming a global Youtube comic star with their video number 31. Comic videos by Mister Epic Mann usually feauture two College roommates. Their goal this time was to show us ‘How Animals Eat Their Food’.

The video was upload by April 8, 2013.

Four days after, it counts with more than 20 million views. Previous record for Mister Epic Mann was slighly more than 1 million visits. So, probably a new star is born.

We want to provide in this post some metrics about this viral success story born in Youtube, but as always, nourished also by the other social media platforms.

Before presenting you some numbers, we are pleased to show you the characters present in the video.

analysis video how animals eat their food

alligator video how animals eat their food imact metrics

lizard video how animals eat their food youtube impact analysis april 2013

whale video how animals eat their food youtube funniest ever twitter

groundhog video how animals eat their food youtube yt twitter reaction april 2013 mri navarra

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This is the video


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Metrics of viral difusion

As people familiar with Youtube knows, viewing statistics in the initial days provided by Youtube are not adjusted to reality. This is not problematic for ordinary videos, but are useless for monitoring the development in the initial stages when the video goes viral or extremely popular almots from the very beginning. This is the case.

The only publicly available monitorable tool provided by Youtube is the number of votes and comments, which are updated in real time. As we were not aware of the existence of this channel and the video since the third day, we cannot use this information either.

We count with some indirect ways to tackle the viral dynamics of this video by checking the social conversation around the video in other social media platforms.

Twitter is our preferred tool to address this issue, once more. It is an open space that allows us to monitor all people publishing tweets about any single issue.

In this case, we monitor who is sharing the video in Twitter.

Next figure shows the evolution of the number of tweets by days that attach the official video, between 8 and 11 April 2013.

Our results show that only a small number of Twitter users noticed about the existence of the video. This concerned mostly to the people suscribed at that moment in Mister Eipc Mann Youtube channel (by April 13, 2013 they count with more than 700,000 subscribers).

The day after (9 April) was the crucial day where people outside the inner circle of suscribers started recommending viewing the funny video. The following day it already became a mainstream topic in Twitter. It was shared more than 12,000 times, some 5 times more than the day before. During the fourth day (April 11, 2013), social recommendation kept high, but didn’t grow anymore.

viral development in twitter of youtube video how animals eat their food mri navarra

(Update 14 April) We present additional information about the evolution of the video sharing in Twitter with the number of tweets written in English including the video as attachment, hour by hour (Pacific Coast Time), the following two days (April 12 and 13).

The daily evolution shows us that viewing is mainly driven by North America Twitter users. Intensity of ditribution by April 13 is barely half of the previous days number.

how animals eat their food twitter video sharing viral dynamics mri navarra

Total number of sharings by April 12 was some 6,800 tweets, and 3,900 the day after. So, the peak of viral dynamycs was reached in Twitter by April 11. If this video follows a standard time trend, April 11 record will not be reached again.

viral development in twitter of youtube video how animals eat their food mri navarra april 2013

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Viewers’ reaction. Youtube metrics.

Youtube provides us the basic tool concerning the measure of satisfaction of people watching the video: the ratio like/dislike, plus the intensity of reaction and interaction.

The like/dislike ratio for ’How Animals Eat Their Food’ video is 97.8% of positive votes, after 20 million views. This is an excellent positive reaction score.

Even if ‘Animals’ is the video that is gaining international success, many other videos by Mister Epic Mann are highly appreciated by people. Among the videos with more than half a million views there are 7 videos receiving more than 97% of positive reviews.

Here the top five videos ranked by the like/dislike ratio.

1.

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5.

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Annex

About the authors

Apparently, ‘the roommate’ is Ian Deibert. He is pursuing a Graphic Arts Major at Liberty University. This is his Facebook page. Mister Epic Mann is also a College student at Liberty University.

Pope Francis: an initial warm welcome. Social Media Content Analysis-MRI

The Argentinian Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected Pope of the Catholic Church by 13 march 2013. He has chosen Francis as pontifical name.

We have conducted a content analysis of the initial reaction of people in the social media. We have chosen Twitter.

We have depelopped a new reputation metrics tool at Media, Reputation and Intangibles Center, Universidad de Navarra, that we call Social Media Content Analysis, SMCA-MRI.

Through the quantitative content analysis of a massive number of tweets, we identify the tone of the social conversation. Typically, apps and quantitative metrics tools provide as result a classification of positive-neutral-negative tweets.

Even if these results (positive Vs negative comments) are valuable and useful in many cases, in other cases they don’t provide enough information. In many cases, the relevant outcome is not linked to how much positive the social conversation is, but which kind of positive aspects are outlind in the social media conversation.

With SMCA-MRI, we identify the tone of the social media conversation in relation with the main brand values: emotional, rational and negative components.

Values range between -1 (minimum level of association with the brand value component) and +1 (maximum level of association).

We have analyzed 10,400 tweets talking in an explicit way about Pope Francis. We have chosen tweets written in Spanish (“Papa Francisco”).

First figure refers to emotional brand value components. We have selected the component ‘I love’ (‘Me encanta’) and ‘Thrilling’ (‘Apasionante’). according to SMCA-MRI analysis, we find very high levels of positive emotional tone in tweets about the new Pope Francis in the night of his election (values between +0.6 to +0.8). It mantains values around +0.6 the day after his election.

 

Pope Francis twitter sentiment analysis initial reaction emotional values i love

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Second figure shows results concerning brand values related with rational components.

We have chosen the brand value components ‘Sublime’ and ‘Admirable’.

We find again a conversation tone presenting high positive values. Initial reaction get values around +0.7 to +0.8. The day after it moves between +0.4 to +0.7.

Pope Francis twitter sentiment analysis initial reaction rational sublime admirable mri

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Finally, and consistently with previous results, we observe a low association with negative brand values. We have chosen ‘Lamentable’ and ‘Pitiful’ (‘Patético’) components.

Valuea are stable aroung the 0 to +0.2 points.

Pope Francis twitter sentiment analysis initial reaction negative values lamentable pitiful

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Our analysis shows that the global tone in Twitter in Spanish was extremely favourable and positive to the new Pope. This initial emotional reaction will of course diminish in the next days, as factual and non emotional content will emerge linked to the activity of the Pope. We will continue to monitor it.